In regression modelling, the primary objective is to approximate the true conditional mean of a response given a set of features. To this end, various statistical models are used to fit a regression function that provides a mean estimate for each single set of features. This function is said to be calibrated if the resulting mean estimates match the true conditional means for almost all features. Aiming for calibration seems not achievable in practice as models are fitted on finite samples of noisy observations. A weaker notion of calibration is auto-calibration (sometimes also called mean-calibration or well-calibration); see, for example, Kr uger-Ziegel [22] and Denuit et al. [7]. This notion goes back to earlier works on the reliability of probabilistic forecasts in meteorology; we refer to Bross [2], Sanders [26] and Murphy-Winkler [23]. It means that when responses are grouped according to their mean estimates, the average of the responses within each group matches this estimate. This property is important in various applications where sums of mean estimates have to match sums of responses at a global and local level. This is, for example, the case in insurance pricing as an auto-calibrated pricing system avoids systematic cross-subsidy between different price cohorts; we refer the reader to Pohle [24], Denuit et al. [6], Fissler et al. [9] and W uthrich-Merz [30].

Calibration Bands for Mean Estimates within the Exponential Dispersion Family null Lukasz Delong Selim Gatti Mario V. W uthrich Version of October 8, 2025 Abstract A statistical model is said to be calibrated if the resulting mean estimates perfectly match the true means of the underlying responses. Aiming for calibration is often not achievable in practice as one has to deal with finite samples of noisy observations. A weaker notion of calibration is auto-calibration. An auto-calibrated model satisfies that the expected value of the responses for a given mean estimate matches this estimate. Testing for auto-calibration has only been considered recently in the literature and we propose a new approach based on calibration bands. Calibration bands denote a set of lower and upper bounds such that the probability that the true means lie simultaneously inside those bounds exceeds some given confidence level. Such bands were constructed by Yang-Barber (2019) for sub-Gaussian distributions. Dimitriadis et al. (2023) then introduced narrower bands for the Bernoulli distribution. We use the same idea in order to extend the construction to the entire exponential dispersion family that contains for example the binomial, Poisson, negative binomial, gamma and normal distributions. Moreover, we show that the obtained calibration bands allow us to construct various tests for calibration and auto-calibration, respectively. As the construction of the bands does not rely on asymptotic results, we emphasize that our tests can be used for any sample size. Auto-calibration, calibration, calibration bands, exponential dispersion family, mean estimation, regression modeling, binomial distribution, Poisson distribution, negative binomial distribution, gamma distribution, normal distribution inverse Gaussian distribution. 1 Introduction Various statistical methods can be used to derive mean estimates from available observations, and it is important to understand whether these mean estimates are reliable for decision making. A statistical model is said to be calibrated if the resulting mean estimates perfectly match the true means of the underlying responses. In practice, calibration is often not achievable, as estimates are obtained from finite samples of noisy observations.

The estimation of unknown parameters in nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) offers valuable insights across a wide range of scientific domains. In this work, we focus on estimating plant root parameters in the Richards equation, which is essential for understanding the soil-plant system in agricultural studies. Since conventional methods are computationally intensive and often yield unstable estimates, we develop a new Gaussian process collocation method for efficient Bayesian inference. Unlike existing Gaussian process-based approaches, our method constructs an approximate posterior distribution using samples drawn from a Gaussian process model fitted to the observed data, which does not require any structural assumption about the underlying PDE. Further, we propose to use an importance sampling procedure to correct for the discrepancy between the approximate and true posterior distributions. As an alternative, we also devise a prior-guided Bayesian optimization algorithm leveraging the approximate posterior. Simulation studies demonstrate that our method yields robust estimates under various settings. Finally, we apply our method on a real agricultural data set and estimate the plant root parameters with uncertainty quantification.

Effective data partitioning is known to be crucial in machine learning. Traditional cross-validation methods like K-Fold Cross-Validation (KFCV) enhance model robustness but often compromise generalisation assessment due to high computational demands and extensive data shuffling. To address these issues, the integration of the Simple Random Sampling (SRS), which, despite providing representative samples, can result in non-representative sets with imbalanced data. The study introduces a hybrid model, Fusion Sampling Validation (FSV), combining SRS and KFCV to optimise data partitioning. FSV aims to minimise biases and merge the simplicity of SRS with the accuracy of KFCV. The study used three datasets of 10,000, 50,000, and 100,000 samples, generated with a normal distribution (mean 0, variance 1) and initialised with seed 42. KFCV was performed with five folds and ten repetitions, incorporating a scaling factor to ensure robust performance estimation and generalisation capability. FSV integrated a weighted factor to enhance performance and generalisation further. Evaluations focused on mean estimates (ME), variance estimates (VE), mean squared error (MSE), bias, the rate of convergence for mean estimates (ROC\_ME), and the rate of convergence for variance estimates (ROC\_VE). Results indicated that FSV consistently outperformed SRS and KFCV, with ME values of 0.000863, VE of 0.949644, MSE of 0.952127, bias of 0.016288, ROC\_ME of 0.005199, and ROC\_VE of 0.007137. FSV demonstrated superior accuracy and reliability in data partitioning, particularly in resource-constrained environments and extensive datasets, providing practical solutions for effective machine learning implementations.

--Federated learning with heterogeneous data and personalization has received significant recent attention. Separately, robustness to corrupted data in the context of federated learning has also been studied. In this paper we explore combining personalization for heterogeneous data with robustness, where a constant fraction of the clients are corrupted. Motivated by this broad problem, we formulate a simple instantiation which captures some of its difficulty. We focus on the specific problem of personalized mean estimation where the data is drawn from a Gaussian mixture model. We give an algorithm whose error depends almost linearly on the ratio of corrupted to uncorrupted samples, and show a lower bound with the same behavior, albeit with a gap of a constant factor . Federated learning (FL) is a distributed system approach to collaboratively build machine learning models from multiple clients, without directly sharing limited local data [1], [2].

The Median of Means (MoM) is a mean estimator that has gained popularity in the context of heavy-tailed data. In this work, we analyze its performance in the task of simultaneously estimating the mean of each function in a class $\mathcal{F}$ when the data distribution possesses only the first $p$ moments for $p \in (1,2]$. We prove a new sample complexity bound using a novel symmetrization technique that may be of independent interest. Additionally, we present applications of our result to $k$-means clustering with unbounded inputs and linear regression with general losses, improving upon existing works.

We introduce a methodology for performing parameter inference in high-dimensional, non-linear diffusion processes. We illustrate its applicability for obtaining insights into the evolution of and relationships between species, including ancestral state reconstruction. Estimation is performed by utilising score matching to approximate diffusion bridges, which are subsequently used in an importance sampler to estimate log-likelihoods. The entire setup is differentiable, allowing gradient ascent on approximated log-likelihoods. This allows both parameter inference and diffusion mean estimation. This novel, numerically stable, score matching-based parameter inference framework is presented and demonstrated on biological two- and three-dimensional morphometry data.

Federated learning (FL) allows for collaborative model training across decentralized clients while preserving privacy by avoiding data sharing. However, current FL methods assume conditional independence between client models, limiting the use of priors that capture dependence, such as Gaussian processes (GPs). We introduce the Structured Independence via deep Generative Model Approximation (SIGMA) prior which enables FL for non-factorizable models across clients, expanding the applicability of FL to fields such as spatial statistics, epidemiology, environmental science, and other domains where modeling dependencies is crucial. The SIGMA prior is a pre-trained deep generative model that approximates the desired prior and induces a specified conditional independence structure in the latent variables, creating an approximate model suitable for FL settings. We demonstrate the SIGMA prior's effectiveness on synthetic data and showcase its utility in a real-world example of FL for spatial data, using a conditional autoregressive prior to model spatial dependence across Australia. Our work enables new FL applications in domains where modeling dependent data is essential for accurate predictions and decision-making.

Quantifying the causal relationships from purely observational data between variables in a system is a problem that has attracted great attention in the fields of statistics and machine learning. Full knowledge of the causal relations allows predicting the outcome of direct manipulations on the system, which can generally only be known from interventional data obtained by performing experiments such as randomized controlled trials (Eberhardt and Scheines, 2007). Predicting the effect of such manipulations without the need of costly or infeasible experiments is of great practical relevance, specifically in the fields of computational biology (Sachs et al., 2005), medicine (Richens et al., 2020) or AI (Schölkopf, 2022), since a central question concerns how a complex system will react to some treatment or outside influence of the user. Pearl's rules of do-calculus (Pearl, 2000) allow computing the intervention distributions resulting from these external manipulations from the joint distribution of the set of random variables together with a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG). The DAG represents the qualitative causal relationships among the variables; each node in the graph represents a variable and a directed edge indicates a direct causal effect. Probabilistic models that are based on such DAGs, commonly called causal Bayesian Networks (BNs), provide conventional grounds for probabilistic causal inference, due to their compact representation of the joint distribution and their intuitive graphical description of the causal structure.