Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

This paper introduces new algorithms and data structures for quick counting for machine learning datasets. We focus on the counting task of constructing contingency tables, but our approach is also applicable to counting the number of records in a dataset that match conjunctive queries. Subject to certain assumptions, the costs of these operations can be shown to be independent of the number of records in the dataset and loglinear in the number of non-zero entries in the contingency table. We provide a very sparse data structure, the ADtree, to minimize memory use. We provide analytical worst-case bounds for this structure for several models of data distribution. We empirically demonstrate that tractably-sized data structures can be produced for large real-world datasets by (a) using a sparse tree structure that never allocates memory for counts of zero, (b) never allocating memory for counts that can be deduced from other counts, and (c) not bothering to expand the tree fully near its leaves. We show how the ADtree can be used to accelerate Bayes net structure finding algorithms, rule learning algorithms, and feature selection algorithms, and we provide a number of empirical results comparing ADtree methods against traditional direct counting approaches. We also discuss the possible uses of ADtrees in other machine learning methods, and discuss the merits of ADtrees in comparison with alternative representations such as kd-trees, R-trees and Frequent Sets.