Complex ocean systems such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current play key roles in the climate, and current models predict shifts in their strength and area under climate change. However, the physical processes underlying these changes are not well understood, in part due to the difficulty of characterizing and tracking changes in ocean physics in complex models. Using the Antarctic Circumpolar Current as a case study, we extend the method Tracking global Heating with Ocean Regimes (THOR) to a mesoscale eddy permitting climate model and identify regions of the ocean characterized by similar physics, called dynamical regimes, using readily accessible fields from climate models. To this end, we cluster grid cells into dynamical regimes and train an ensemble of neural networks, allowing uncertainty quantification, to predict these regimes and track them under climate change. Finally, we leverage this new knowledge to elucidate the dynamical drivers of the identified regime shifts as noted by the neural network using the 'explainability' methods SHAP and Layer-wise Relevance Propagation. A region undergoing a profound shift is where the Antarctic Circumpolar Current intersects the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge, an area important for carbon draw-down and fisheries. In this region, THOR specifically reveals a shift in dynamical regime under climate change driven by changes in wind stress and interactions with bathymetry. Using this knowledge to guide further exploration, we find that as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current shifts north under intensifying wind stress, the dominant dynamical role of bathymetry weakens and the flow intensifies.

Finite mixture models can describe a wide range of statistical phenomena. They have been successfully applied to numerous fields including biology, economics, engineering, and social sciences [15]. The first major use and analysis of mixture models is perhaps due to the mathematician and biostatistician Karl Pearson over 120 years ago who explicitly decomposed a distribution into two normal distributions for characterizing non-normal attributes of forehead to body length ratios in female shore crab populations [16]. The literature on analyzing and applying mixture models is growing due to their simplicity, versatility and flexibility. One of the most commonly used mixture models is the Gaussian mixture model (GMM), which is a weighted sum of Gaussian distributions.

Generative Adversarial Networks have been shown to be powerful in generating content. To this end, they have been studied intensively in the last few years. Nonetheless, training these networks requires solving a saddle point problem that is difficult to solve and slowly converging. Motivated from techniques in the registration of point clouds and by the fluid flow formulation of mass transport, we investigate a new formulation that is based on strict minimization, without the need for the maximization. The formulation views the problem as a matching problem rather than an adversarial one and thus allows us to quickly converge and obtain meaningful metrics in the optimization path.