Accurate short-term electricity price forecasting is crucial for strategically scheduling demand and generation bids in day-ahead markets. While data-driven techniques have shown considerable prowess in achieving high forecast accuracy in recent years, they rely heavily on the quality of input covariates. In this paper, we investigate whether asynchronously published prices as a result of differing gate closure times (GCTs) in some bidding zones can improve forecasting accuracy in other markets with later GCTs. Using a state-of-the-art ensemble of models, we show significant improvements of 22% and 9% in forecast accuracy in the Belgian (BE) and Swedish bidding zones (SE3) respectively, when including price data from interconnected markets with earlier GCT (Germany-Luxembourg, Austria, and Switzerland). This improvement holds for both general as well as extreme market conditions. Our analysis also yields further important insights: frequent model recalibration is necessary for maximum accuracy but comes at substantial additional computational costs, and using data from more markets does not always lead to better performance - a fact we delve deeper into with interpretability analysis of the forecast models. Overall, these findings provide valuable guidance for market participants and decision-makers aiming to optimize bidding strategies within increasingly interconnected and volatile European energy markets.

This study presents the implementation of a short-term forecasting system for price movements in exchange markets, using market depth data and a systematic procedure to enable a fully automated trading system. The case study focuses on the UK to Win Horse Racing market during the pre-live stage on the world's leading betting exchange, Betfair. Innovative convolutional attention mechanisms are introduced and applied to multiple recurrent neural networks and bi-dimensional convolutional recurrent neural network layers. Additionally, a novel padding method for convolutional layers is proposed, specifically designed for multivariate time series processing. These innovations are thoroughly detailed, along with their execution process. The proposed architectures follow a standard supervised learning approach, involving model training and subsequent testing on new data, which requires extensive pre-processing and data analysis. The study also presents a complete end-to-end framework for automated feature engineering and market interactions using the developed models in production. The key finding of this research is that all proposed innovations positively impact the performance metrics of the classification task under examination, thereby advancing the current state-of-the-art in convolutional attention mechanisms and padding methods applied to multivariate time series problems.

For each (topic, subtopic) pair, we generate and solve 80 problems using GPT4.

Atypically to standard NN applications, financial industry practitioners use such models equally to replicate market prices and to value other financial instruments. In other words, low training losses are as important as generalization capabilities.

We present StockSim, an open-source simulation platform for systematic evaluation of large language models (LLMs) in realistic financial decision-making scenarios. Unlike previous toolkits that offer limited scope, StockSim delivers a comprehensive system that fully models market dynamics and supports diverse simulation modes of varying granularity. It incorporates critical real-world factors, such as latency, slippage, and order-book microstructure, that were previously neglected, enabling more faithful and insightful assessment of LLM-based trading agents. An extensible, role-based agent framework supports heterogeneous trading strategies and multi-agent coordination, making StockSim a uniquely capable testbed for NLP research on reasoning under uncertainty and sequential decision-making. We open-source all our code at https: //github.com/harrypapa2002/StockSim.

This project addresses the challenge of automated stock trading, where traditional methods and direct reinforcement learning (RL) struggle with market noise, complexity, and generalization. Our proposed solution is an integrated deep learning framework combining a Convolu-tional Neural Network (CNN) to identify patterns in technical indicators formatted as images, a Long Short-T erm Memory (LSTM) network to capture temporal dependencies across both price history and technical indicators, and a Deep Q-Network (DQN) agent which learns the optimal trading policy (buy, sell, hold) based on the features extracted by the CNN and LSTM. The CNN and LSTM act as sophisticated feature extractors, feeding processed information to the DQN, which learns the optimal trading policy (buy, sell, hold) through RL. W e trained and evaluated this model on historical daily stock data, using distinct periods for training, testing, and validation. Performance was assessed by comparing the agent's returns and risk on out-of-sample test data against baseline strategies, including passive buy-and-hold approaches. This analysis, along with insights gained from explainability techniques into the agent's decision-making process, aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of combining specialized deep learning architectures, document challenges encountered, and potentially uncover learned market insights.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities across various domains, but their effectiveness in financial decision making, particularly in fund investment, remains inadequately evaluated. Current benchmarks primarily assess LLMs understanding of financial documents rather than their ability to manage assets or analyze trading opportunities in dynamic market conditions. A critical limitation in existing evaluation methodologies is the backtesting approach, which suffers from information leakage when LLMs are evaluated on historical data they may have encountered during pretraining. This paper introduces DeepFund, a comprehensive platform for evaluating LLM based trading strategies in a simulated live environment. Our approach implements a multi agent framework where LLMs serve as both analysts and managers, creating a realistic simulation of investment decision making. The platform employs a forward testing methodology that mitigates information leakage by evaluating models on market data released after their training cutoff dates. We provide a web interface that visualizes model performance across different market conditions and investment parameters, enabling detailed comparative analysis. Through DeepFund, we aim to provide a more accurate and fair assessment of LLMs capabilities in fund investment, offering insights into their potential real world applications in financial markets.

Financial markets are complex systems characterized by high statistical noise, nonlinearity, and constant evolution. Thus, modeling them is extremely hard. We address the task of generating realistic and responsive Limit Order Book (LOB) market simulations, which are fundamental for calibrating and testing trading strategies, performing market impact experiments, and generating synthetic market data. Previous works lack realism, usefulness, and responsiveness of the generated simulations. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel TRAnsformer-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Engine for LOB Simulations (TRADES). TRADES generates realistic order flows conditioned on the state of the market, leveraging a transformer-based architecture that captures the temporal and spatial characteristics of high-frequency market data. There is a notable absence of quantitative metrics for evaluating generative market simulation models in the literature. To tackle this problem, we adapt the predictive score, a metric measured as an MAE, by training a stock price predictive model on synthetic data and testing it on real data. We compare TRADES with previous works on two stocks, reporting an x3.27 and x3.47 improvement over SoTA according to the predictive score, demonstrating that we generate useful synthetic market data for financial downstream tasks. We assess TRADES's market simulation realism and responsiveness, showing that it effectively learns the conditional data distribution and successfully reacts to an experimental agent, giving sprout to possible calibrations and evaluations of trading strategies and market impact experiments. We developed DeepMarket, the first open-source Python framework for market simulation with deep learning. Our repository includes a synthetic LOB dataset composed of TRADES's generates simulations. We release the code at github.com/LeonardoBerti00/DeepMarket.