Sections A - E prove our main results in detail. We next introduce some notation pertaining to the construction of the correlated SBMs. In this section we prove Theorem 3.1 in the main text. To make these ideas more formal, we begin by defining some notation. Remark B.2. Since our goal is to bound the probability of the event To apply Lemma B.3 later on, we need to compute/estimate This leads to the subtracted term in (5).

Advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning have led to neural networks being used to generate lightning-speed answers to complex questions, to paint like Monet, or to write like Proust. Leveraging their computational speed and flexibility, neural networks are also being used to facilitate fast, likelihood-free statistical inference. However, it is not straightforward to use neural networks with data that for various reasons are incomplete, which precludes their use in many applications. A recently proposed approach to remedy this issue inputs an appropriately padded data vector and a vector that encodes the missingness pattern to a neural network. While computationally efficient, this "masking" approach can result in statistically inefficient inferences. Here, we propose an alternative approach that is based on the Monte Carlo expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. Our EM approach is likelihood-free, substantially faster than the conventional EM algorithm as it does not require numerical optimization at each iteration, and more statistically efficient than the masking approach. This research represents a prototype problem that indicates how improvements could be made in AI by introducing Bayesian statistical thinking. We compare the two approaches to missingness using simulated incomplete data from two models: a spatial Gaussian process model, and a spatial Potts model. The utility of the methodology is shown on Arctic sea-ice data and cryptocurrency data.

Age of incorrect information (AoII) is a recently proposed freshness and mismatch metric that penalizes an incorrect estimation along with its duration. Therefore, keeping track of AoII requires the knowledge of both the source and estimation processes. In this paper, we consider a time-slotted pull-based remote estimation system under a sampling rate constraint where the information source is a general discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) process. Moreover, packet transmission times from the source to the monitor are non-zero which disallows the monitor to have perfect information on the actual AoII process at any time. Hence, for this pull-based system, we propose the monitor to maintain a sufficient statistic called {\em belief} which stands for the joint distribution of the age and source processes to be obtained from the history of all observations. Using belief, we first propose a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator to be used at the monitor as opposed to existing martingale estimators in the literature. Second, we obtain the optimality equations from the belief-MDP (Markov decision process) formulation. Finally, we propose two belief-dependent policies one of which is based on deep reinforcement learning, and the other one is a threshold-based policy based on the instantaneous expected AoII.

Within the field of optimal transport (OT), the choice of ground cost is crucial to ensuring that the optimality of a transport map corresponds to usefulness in real-world applications. It is therefore desirable to use known information to tailor cost functions and hence learn OT maps which are adapted to the problem at hand. By considering a class of neural ground costs whose Monge maps have a known form, we construct a differentiable Monge map estimator which can be optimized to be consistent with known information about an OT map. In doing so, we simultaneously learn both an OT map estimator and a corresponding adapted cost function. Through suitable choices of loss function, our method provides a general approach for incorporating prior information about the Monge map itself when learning adapted OT maps and cost functions.

Optimal transport (OT) has profoundly impacted machine learning by providing theoretical and computational tools to realign datasets. In this context, given two large point clouds of sizes $n$ and $m$ in $\mathbb{R}^d$, entropic OT (EOT) solvers have emerged as the most reliable tool to either solve the Kantorovich problem and output a $n\times m$ coupling matrix, or to solve the Monge problem and learn a vector-valued push-forward map. While the robustness of EOT couplings/maps makes them a go-to choice in practical applications, EOT solvers remain difficult to tune because of a small but influential set of hyperparameters, notably the omnipresent entropic regularization strength $\varepsilon$. Setting $\varepsilon$ can be difficult, as it simultaneously impacts various performance metrics, such as compute speed, statistical performance, generalization, and bias. In this work, we propose a new class of EOT solvers (ProgOT), that can estimate both plans and transport maps. We take advantage of several opportunities to optimize the computation of EOT solutions by dividing mass displacement using a time discretization, borrowing inspiration from dynamic OT formulations, and conquering each of these steps using EOT with properly scheduled parameters. We provide experimental evidence demonstrating that ProgOT is a faster and more robust alternative to standard solvers when computing couplings at large scales, even outperforming neural network-based approaches. We also prove statistical consistency of our approach for estimating optimal transport maps.

The article presents a systematic study of the problem of conditioning a Gaussian random variable $\xi$ on nonlinear observations of the form $F \circ \phi(\xi)$ where $\phi: \mathcal{X} \to \mathbb{R}^N$ is a bounded linear operator and $F$ is nonlinear. Such problems arise in the context of Bayesian inference and recent machine learning-inspired PDE solvers. We give a representer theorem for the conditioned random variable $\xi \mid F\circ \phi(\xi)$, stating that it decomposes as the sum of an infinite-dimensional Gaussian (which is identified analytically) as well as a finite-dimensional non-Gaussian measure. We also introduce a novel notion of the mode of a conditional measure by taking the limit of the natural relaxation of the problem, to which we can apply the existing notion of maximum a posteriori estimators of posterior measures. Finally, we introduce a variant of the Laplace approximation for the efficient simulation of the aforementioned conditioned Gaussian random variables towards uncertainty quantification.

In cancer research, overall survival and progression free survival are often analyzed with the Cox model. To estimate accurately the parameters in the model, sufficient data and, more importantly, sufficient events need to be observed. In practice, this is often a problem. Merging data sets from different medical centers may help, but this is not always possible due to strict privacy legislation and logistic difficulties. Recently, the Bayesian Federated Inference (BFI) strategy for generalized linear models was proposed. With this strategy the statistical analyses are performed in the local centers where the data were collected (or stored) and only the inference results are combined to a single estimated model; merging data is not necessary. The BFI methodology aims to compute from the separate inference results in the local centers what would have been obtained if the analysis had been based on the merged data sets. In this paper we generalize the BFI methodology as initially developed for generalized linear models to survival models. Simulation studies and real data analyses show excellent performance; i.e., the results obtained with the BFI methodology are very similar to the results obtained by analyzing the merged data. An R package for doing the analyses is available.

The power-law distribution plays a crucial role in complex networks as well as various applied sciences. Investigating whether the degree distribution of a network follows a power-law distribution is an important concern. The commonly used inferential methods for estimating the model parameters often yield biased estimates, which can lead to the rejection of the hypothesis that a model conforms to a power-law. In this paper, we discuss improved methods that utilize Bayesian inference to obtain accurate estimates and precise credibility intervals. The inferential methods are derived for both continuous and discrete distributions. These methods reveal that objective Bayesian approaches return nearly unbiased estimates for the parameters of both models. Notably, in the continuous case, we identify an explicit posterior distribution. This work enhances the power of goodness-of-fit tests, enabling us to accurately discern whether a network or any other dataset adheres to a power-law distribution. We apply the proposed approach to fit degree distributions for more than 5,000 synthetic networks and over 3,000 real networks. The results indicate that our method is more suitable in practice, as it yields a frequency of acceptance close to the specified nominal level.

In this paper, we propose to develop a new Cram\'er-Rao Bound (CRB) when the parameter to estimate lies in a manifold and follows a prior distribution. This derivation leads to a natural inequality between an error criteria based on geometrical properties and this new bound. This main contribution is illustrated in the problem of covariance estimation when the data follow a Gaussian distribution and the prior distribution is an inverse Wishart. Numerical simulation shows new results where the proposed CRB allows to exhibit interesting properties of the MAP estimator which are not observed with the classical Bayesian CRB.