CFTC chairman Michael Selig sat down with WIRED to discuss how the agency scours Polymarket and other prediction markets for illegal activity. For most of the past year, it looked like prediction markets had kicked off a new golden age of fraud. On Polymarket, traders raked in fortunes from suspiciously timed bets on geopolitical events like the raid on Venezuela and the Iran War. It wasn't clear whether the US government would bother pursuing some of the most flagrant bad actors, since Polymarket's crypto-based platform was technically offshore and not regulated or licensed within the country. Now, however, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which oversees prediction markets, wants you to know that it's watching very, very closely.

Applying pre-trained generative denoising diffusion models (DDMs) for downstream tasks such as image semantic editing usually requires either fine-tuning DDMs or learning auxiliary editing networks in the existing literature. In this work, we present our BoundaryDiffusion method for efficient, effective and lightweight semantic control with frozen pre-trained DDMs, without learning any extra networks. As one of the first learning-free diffusion editing works, we start by seeking a comprehensive understanding of the intermediate high-dimensional latent spaces by theoretically and empirically analyzing their probabilistic and geometric behaviors in the Markov chain. We then propose to further explore the critical step for editing in the denoising trajectory that characterizes the convergence of a pre-trained DDM and introduce an automatic search method. Last but not least, in contrast to the conventional understanding that DDMs have relatively poor semantic behaviors, we prove that the critical latent space we found already exhibits semantic subspace boundaries at the generic level in unconditional DDMs, which allows us to do controllable manipulation by guiding the denoising trajectory towards the targeted boundary via a single-step operation. We conduct extensive experiments on multiple DPMs architectures (DDPM, iDDPM) and datasets (CelebA, CelebA-HQ, LSUN-church, LSUN-bedroom, AFHQ-dog) with different resolutions (64, 256), achieving superior or state-of-the-art performance in various task scenarios (image semantic editing, text-based editing, unconditional semantic control) to demonstrate the effectiveness.

We study the fundamental mistake bound and sample complexity in the strategic1 classification, where agents can strategically manipulate their feature vector up2 to an extent in order to be predicted as positive. For example, given a classifier3 determining college admission, student candidates may try to take easier classes to4 improve their GPA, retake SAT and change schools in an effort to fool the classifier.5 Ball manipulations are a widely studied class of manipulations in the literature,6 where agents can modify their feature vector within a bounded radius ball. Unlike7 most prior work, our work consider manipulations to be personalized, meaning8 that agents can have different levels of manipulation abilities (e.g., varying radii9 for ball manipulations), and unknown to the learner.10 We formalize the learning problem in an interaction model where the learner11 first deploys a classifier and the agent manipulates the feature vector within their12 manipulation set to game the deployed classifier. We investigate various scenarios13 in terms of the information available to the learner during the interaction, such14 as observing the original feature vector before or after deployment, observing the15 manipulated feature vector, or not seeing either the original or the manipulated16 feature vector. We begin by providing online mistake bounds and PAC sample17 complexity in these scenarios for ball manipulations. We also explore non-ball18 manipulations and show that, even in the simplest scenario where both the original19 and the manipulated feature vectors are revealed, the mistake bounds and sample20 complexity are lower bounded by Ω(|H|) when the target function belongs to a21 known class H.22

Diffusion models (DMs) have enabled breakthroughs in image synthesis tasks but lack an intuitive interface for consistent image-to-image (I2I) translation. Various methods have been explored to address this issue, including mask-based methods, attention-based methods, and image-conditioning. However, it remains a critical challenge to enable unpaired I2I translation with pre-trained DMs while maintaining satisfying consistency. This paper introduces CycleNet, a novel but simple method that incorporates cycle consistency into DMs to regularize image manipulation.

We use the images at 256 256resolution. We follow [21] and use all the images for training. The images used for the qualitative visualizations contain random images from the web and samples from CelebA-HQ. AFHQ [8] 15,000high quality images categorized into three domains: cat, dog and wildlife. We use the images at 128 128 resolution, holding out 500 images from each domain for testing.