One of Kalshi's most prominent traders tells WIRED he's swearing off Spotify-related markets until the issue is resolved. Top Kalshi trader Caleb Davies usually speaks to the press about how prediction markets help him rake in money. The Minneapolis-based IT worker estimates he's made $1.2 million overall across different prediction platforms, with $414,000 in winnings from Kalshi's culture markets alone. He especially enjoys wagering on music charts, because he carefully analyzes Spotify data to pick winners. "Every single morning, I'm going in, downloading the data, and updating my projections," he tells WIRED.

Manipulation in cluttered environments is challenging due to spatial dependencies among objects, where an improper manipulation order can cause collisions or blocked access. Existing approaches often overlook these spatial relationships, limiting their flexibility and scalability. To address these limitations, we propose OrderMind, a unified spatial-aware manipulation ordering framework that directly learns object manipulation priorities based on spatial context.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have demonstrated strong multi-modal reasoning capabilities, enabling direct action generation from visual perception and language instructions in an end-to-end manner. However, their substantial computational cost poses a challenge for real-time robotic control, where rapid decision-making is essential. This paper introduces VLA-Cache, a training-free inference acceleration method that reduces computational overhead by adaptively caching and reusing static visual tokens across frames. Exploiting the temporal continuity in robotic manipulation, VLA-Cache identifies minimally changed tokens between adjacent frames and reuses their cached key-value representations, thereby circumventing redundant computations. Additionally, to maintain action precision, VLA-Cache selectively re-computes task-relevant tokens that are environmentally sensitive, ensuring the fidelity of critical visual information. To further optimize efficiency, we introduce a layer adaptive token reusing strategy that dynamically adjusts the reuse ratio based on attention concentration across decoder layers, prioritizing critical tokens for recomputation. Extensive experiments on two simulation platforms (LIBERO and SIMPLER) and a real-world robotic system demonstrate that VLA-Cache achieves up to 1.7 speedup in CUDA latency and a 15% increase in control frequency, with negligible loss on task success rate. The code and videos can be found at our project page: https://vla-cache.github.io.

In this paper, we study an online strategic classification problem, where a principal aims to learn an accurate binary linear classifier from interactions with sequentially arriving agents. For each agent, the principal announces a classifier. The agent can strategically exercise costly manipulations on his features to be classified as the favorable positive class. The principal is unaware of the true featurelabel relationship, but observes all reported features and only labels of positively classified agents. We assume that the true feature-label relationship is given by a halfspace model subject to arbitrary feature-dependent but bounded noise (i.e., Massart noise). This problem faces the combined challenges of agents' strategic feature manipulations, partial feedback observations, and label noise. We tackle these challenges by a novel learning algorithm. We show that the proposed algorithm yields classifiers that converge to the clairvoyant optimal classifier and attains a regret rate of O( T) up to poly-logarithmic and constant factors over T cycles.

For robotic manipulation, existing robotics datasets and simulation benchmarks predominantly cater to robot-arm platforms. However, for humanoid robots equipped with dual arms and dexterous hands, simulation tasks and high-quality demonstrations are notably lacking. Bimanual dexterous manipulation is inherently more complex, as it requires coordinated arm movements and hand operations, making autonomous data collection challenging. This paper presents HumanoidGen, an automated task creation and demonstration collection framework that leverages atomic dexterous operations and LLM reasoning to generate relational constraints. Specifically, we provide spatial annotations for both assets and dexterous hands based on the atomic operations, and perform an LLM planner to generate a chain of actionable spatial constraints for arm movements based on object affordances and scenes. To further improve planning ability, we employ a variant of Monte Carlo tree search to enhance LLM reasoning for long-horizon tasks and insufficient annotation. In experiments, we create a novel benchmark with augmented scenarios to evaluate the quality of the collected data. The results show that the performance of the 2D and 3D diffusion policies can scale with the generated dataset.

Handheld grippers are increasingly used to collect human demonstrations due to their ease of deployment and versatility. However, most existing designs lack tactile lation.

Multimodal large language models have unlocked new possibilities for various multimodal tasks. However, their potential in image manipulation detection remains unexplored. When directly applied to the IMD task, M-LLMs often produce reasoning texts that suffer from hallucinations and overthinking. To address this, we propose ForgerySleuth, which leverages M-LLMs to perform comprehensive clue fusion and generate segmentation outputs indicating specific regions that are tampered with. Moreover, we construct the ForgeryAnalysis dataset through the Chain-of-Clues prompt, which includes analysis and reasoning text to upgrade the image manipulation detection task. A data engine is also introduced to build a largerscale dataset for the pre-training phase. Our extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of ForgeryAnalysis and show that ForgerySleuth significantly outperforms existing methods in generalization, robustness, and explainability.

The generalization capabilities of vision-language-action (VLA) models to unseen tasks are crucial to achieving general-purpose robotic manipulation in open-world settings. However, the cross-task generalization capabilities of existing VLA models remain significantly underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce AGNOSTOS, a novel simulation benchmark designed to rigorously evaluate zeroshot cross-task generalization in manipulation. AGNOSTOS comprises 23 unseen manipulation tasks for test, which are distinct from common training task distributions, and incorporates two levels of generalization difficulty to assess robustness. Our systematic evaluation reveals that current VLA models, despite being trained on diverse datasets, struggle to generalize effectively to these unseen tasks. To overcome this limitation, we propose Cross-Task In-Context Manipulation (XICM), a method that conditions large language models (LLMs) on in-context demonstrations from seen tasks to predict action sequences for unseen tasks. Additionally, we introduce a dynamics-guided sample selection strategy that identifies relevant demonstrations by capturing cross-task dynamics. On AGNOSTOS, XICM significantly improves zero-shot cross-task generalization performance over leading VLA models, achieving improvements of 6.0% over π0 [1] and 7.9% over VoxPoser [2]. We believe AGNOSTOS and X-ICM will serve as valuable tools for advancing general-purpose robotic manipulation.

Recent Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models built on pre-trained VisionLanguage Models (VLMs) require extensive post-training, resulting in high computational overhead that limits scalability and deployment.

Garment manipulation is a critical challenge due to the diversity in garment categories, geometries, and deformations. Despite this, humans can effortlessly handle garments, thanks to the dexterity of our hands. However, existing research in the field has struggled to replicate this level of dexterity, primarily hindered by the lack of realistic simulations of dexterous garment manipulation. Therefore, we propose DexGarmentLab, the first environment specifically designed for dexterous (especially bimanual) garment manipulation, which features large-scale high-quality 3D assets for 15 task scenarios, and refines simulation techniques tailored for garment modeling to reduce the sim-to-real gap. Previous data collection typically relies on teleoperation or training expert reinforcement learning (RL) policies, which are labor-intensive and inefficient. In this paper, we leverage garment structural correspondence to automatically generate a dataset with diverse trajectories using only a single expert demonstration, significantly reducing manual intervention.