Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) tasks, which leverage the current data sequence as input to predict the future sequence, have become increasingly crucial in real-world applications such as weather forecasting and planning of electricity consumption. However, state-of-the-art LTSF models often fail to achieve prediction output alignment for the same timestamps across lagged input sequences.

The LLM-as-a-judge paradigm, in which a judge LLM system replaces human raters in rating the outputs of other generative AI (GenAI) systems, plays a critical role in scaling and standardizing GenAI evaluations. To validate such judge systems, evaluators assess human-judge agreement by first collecting multiple human ratings for each item in a validation corpus, then aggregating the ratings into a single, per-item gold label rating. For many items, however, rating criteria may admit multiple valid interpretations, so a human or LLM rater may deem multiple ratings "reasonable" or "correct". We call this condition rating indeterminacy. Problematically, many rating tasks that contain rating indeterminacy rely on forced-choice elicitation, whereby raters are instructed to select only one rating for each item.

The shape of objects is an important source of visual information in a wide range of applications. One of the core challenges of shape quantification is to ensure that the extracted measurements remain invariant to transformations that preserve an object's intrinsic geometry, such as changing its size, orientation, and position in the image. In this work, we introduce ShapeEmbed, a self-supervised representation learning framework designed to encode the contour of objects in 2D images, represented as a Euclidean distance matrix, into a shape descriptor that is invariant to translation, scaling, rotation, reflection, and point indexing. Our approach overcomes the limitations of traditional shape descriptors while improving upon existing state-of-the-art autoencoder-based approaches. We demonstrate that the descriptors learned by our framework outperform their competitors in shape classification tasks on natural and biological images. We envision our approach to be of particular relevance to biological imaging applications.

Efficient benchmarking techniques aim to lower the computational cost of evaluating LLMs by predicting full benchmark scores using only a subset of a benchmark's questions. By reframing this problem as an instance of multiple regression with feature selection, we find that existing efficient benchmarking methods can be greatly improved by simply using kernel ridge regression at the prediction stage. Additionally, using an information-theoretic feature-selection algorithm called minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR), we can further improve upon these methods by selecting question subsets that will be maximally useful for prediction. Except in very data-poor settings, these approaches consistently achieve smaller prediction errors (in both MAE and RMSE), and greater ranking correlation between predicted and true scores (in both Spearman $ρ$ and Kendall $τ$) across a range of benchmarks using both binary and continuous metrics. Furthermore, mRMR subsampling is much faster than competitor methods (which often involve fitting probabilistic models or running clustering algorithms), and is more likely to select the same questions under different random seeds or training data splits. Tutorial code can be found at https://github.com/sambowyer/mrmr_eval .

Bike-sharing models trained on historical station-hour data may degrade when deployed in later years because travel patterns change over time. This paper studies March Citi Bike demand prediction from 2021 to 2026 as a temporal domain adaptation problem and proposes Gen-ROTDA, a robust optimal transport-guided residual domain adaptation framework. The method fits a target-domain station-time anchor with a small labeled target subset, transfers residual rather than raw demand, applies a deterministic label-preserving residual feature generator, and trims high-cost transport matches before training the final residual predictor. Experiments compare Gen-ROTDA with anchor-only, source-only, target-only, fine-tuning, MMD adaptation, Sinkhorn OTDA, ROTDA, and Gen-OTDA. Gen-ROTDA achieves the lowest MAE on the main 2025 to 2026 task and is the best OT-family method on average across multi-year tasks, although fine-tuning and MMD adaptation remain strong overall baselines. Under abnormal target-unlabeled records, Gen-ROTDA is much more stable than non-robust OT variants, suggesting that robust transport is useful for noisy temporal transfer in bike-sharing demand prediction.

In this paper, we study norm-based regularization methods for neural networks. We compare existing penalization approaches and introduce two regularization strategies that extend classical ridge- and lasso-type penalties to neural network models. The first strategy modifies weight decay by incorporating the covariance structure of the input features into a ridge-type $\ell_2$ penalty, allowing regularization to account for feature dependence. The second combines an $\ell_1$ sparsity penalty with covariance-aware $\ell_2$ regularization, producing neural network weights that are both sparse and structurally informed. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate these methods under different data-generating settings, followed by two real-data applications on building cooling-load prediction and leukemia cell-type classification from high-dimensional gene expression data. Across simulated and real-data examples, the proposed regularizers improve predictive performance on unseen data and provide more effective complexity control than standard norm-based penalties, particularly when features are correlated or high-dimensional.

Evaluating generative AI models is increasingly resource-intensive due to slow inference, expensive raters, and a rapidly growing landscape of models and benchmarks. We propose ProEval, a proactive evaluation framework that leverages transfer learning to efficiently estimate performance and identify failure cases. ProEval employs pre-trained Gaussian Processes (GPs) as surrogates for the performance score function, mapping model inputs to metrics such as the severity of errors or safety violations. By framing performance estimation as Bayesian quadrature (BQ) and failure discovery as superlevel set sampling, we develop uncertainty-aware decision strategies that actively select or synthesize highly informative inputs for testing. Theoretically, we prove that our pre-trained GP-based BQ estimator is unbiased and bounded. Empirically, extensive experiments on reasoning, safety alignment, and classification benchmarks demonstrate that ProEval is significantly more efficient than competitive baselines. It requires 8-65x fewer samples to achieve estimates within 1% of the ground truth, while simultaneously revealing more diverse failure cases under a stricter evaluation budget.