For decades, solutions to regional scale landslide prediction have mostly relied on data-driven models, by definition, disconnected from the physics of the failure mechanism. The success and spread of such tools came from the ability to exploit proxy variables rather than explicit geotechnical ones, as the latter are prohibitive to acquire over broad landscapes. Our work implements a Physics Informed Neural Network (PINN) approach, thereby adding to a standard data-driven architecture, an intermediate constraint to solve for the permanent deformation typical of Newmark slope stability methods. This translates into a neural network tasked with explicitly retrieving geotechnical parameters from common proxy variables and then minimize a loss function with respect to the available coseismic landside inventory. The results are very promising, because our model not only produces excellent predictive performance in the form of standard susceptibility output, but in the process, also generates maps of the expected geotechnical properties at a regional scale. Such architecture is therefore framed to tackle coseismic landslide prediction, something that, if confirmed in other studies, could open up towards PINN-based near-real-time predictions.

The most adopted definition of landslide hazard combines spatial information about landslide location (susceptibility), threat (intensity), and frequency (return period). Only the first two elements are usually considered and estimated when working over vast areas. Even then, separate models constitute the standard, with frequency being rarely investigated. Frequency and intensity are intertwined and depend on each other because larger events occur less frequently and vice versa. However, due to the lack of multi-temporal inventories and joint statistical models, modelling such properties via a unified hazard model has always been challenging and has yet to be attempted. Here, we develop a unified model to estimate landslide hazard at the slope unit level to address such gaps. We employed deep learning, combined with a model motivated by extreme-value theory to analyse an inventory of 30 years of observed rainfall-triggered landslides in Nepal and assess landslide hazard for multiple return periods. We also use our model to further explore landslide hazard for the same return periods under different climate change scenarios up to the end of the century. Our results show that the proposed model performs excellently and can be used to model landslide hazard in a unified manner. Geomorphologically, we find that under both climate change scenarios (SSP245 and SSP885), landslide hazard is likely to increase up to two times on average in the lower Himalayan regions while remaining the same in the middle Himalayan region whilst decreasing slightly in the upper Himalayan region areas.

It's never easy to predict the future, and the speakers of Data Science Salon New York have somewhat divergent views on how we might expect ML and AI to be applied to the field of Media and Entertainment in the next five to ten years. But there's one clear area of agreement: "We're going to continue to see the implementation (and improvement) of personalized recommendation algorithms that are based on person-level data." said Lauren Lombardo, Senior Data Scientist at Nielsen. "It will vastly improve the overall relevance of the content and advertisements served across premium video, and make content exploration much simpler and more enjoyable," suggests Chris Whitely, Senior Director, Applied Analytics at Comcast. But the recommendation engines of tomorrow will be even more robust. "We've barely scratched the surface of utilizing recommendation engines for generating new content," said Josh Miller, Director of Data Analytics at Samba.tv.