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Predicting Time Series of Networked Dynamical Systems without Knowing Topology

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many real-world complex systems, such as epidemic spreading networks and ecosystems, can be modeled as networked dynamical systems that produce multivariate time series. Learning the intrinsic dynamics from observational data is pivotal for forecasting system behaviors and making informed decisions. However, existing methods for modeling networked time series often assume known topologies, whereas real-world networks are typically incomplete or inaccurate, with missing or spurious links that hinder precise predictions. Moreover, while networked time series often originate from diverse topologies, the ability of models to generalize across topologies has not been systematically evaluated. To address these gaps, we propose a novel framework for learning network dynamics directly from observed time-series data, when prior knowledge of graph topology or governing dynamical equations is absent. Our approach leverages continuous graph neural networks with an attention mechanism to construct a latent topology, enabling accurate reconstruction of future trajectories for network states. Extensive experiments on real and synthetic networks demonstrate that our model not only captures dynamics effectively without topology knowledge but also generalizes to unseen time series originating from diverse topologies.


Learning Sub-Second Routing Optimization in Computer Networks requires Packet-Level Dynamics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Finding efficient routes for data packets is an essential task in computer networking. The optimal routes depend greatly on the current network topology, state and traffic demand, and they can change within milliseconds. Reinforcement Learning can help to learn network representations that provide routing decisions for possibly novel situations. So far, this has commonly been done using fluid network models. We investigate their suitability for millisecond-scale adaptations with a range of traffic mixes and find that packet-level network models are necessary to capture true dynamics, in particular in the presence of TCP traffic. To this end, we present $\textit{PackeRL}$, the first packet-level Reinforcement Learning environment for routing in generic network topologies. Our experiments confirm that learning-based strategies that have been trained in fluid environments do not generalize well to this more realistic, but more challenging setup. Hence, we also introduce two new algorithms for learning sub-second Routing Optimization. We present $\textit{M-Slim}$, a dynamic shortest-path algorithm that excels at high traffic volumes but is computationally hard to scale to large network topologies, and $\textit{FieldLines}$, a novel next-hop policy design that re-optimizes routing for any network topology within milliseconds without requiring any re-training. Both algorithms outperform current learning-based approaches as well as commonly used static baseline protocols in scenarios with high-traffic volumes. All findings are backed by extensive experiments in realistic network conditions in our fast and versatile training and evaluation framework.


Identifiability of a statistical model with two latent vectors: Importance of the dimensionality relation and application to graph embedding

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Identifiability of statistical models is a key notion in unsupervised representation learning. Recent work of nonlinear independent component analysis (ICA) employs auxiliary data and has established identifiable conditions. This paper proposes a statistical model of two latent vectors with single auxiliary data generalizing nonlinear ICA, and establishes various identifiability conditions. Unlike previous work, the two latent vectors in the proposed model can have arbitrary dimensions, and this property enables us to reveal an insightful dimensionality relation among two latent vectors and auxiliary data in identifiability conditions. Furthermore, surprisingly, we prove that the indeterminacies of the proposed model has the same as \emph{linear} ICA under certain conditions: The elements in the latent vector can be recovered up to their permutation and scales. Next, we apply the identifiability theory to a statistical model for graph data. As a result, one of the identifiability conditions includes an appealing implication: Identifiability of the statistical model could depend on the maximum value of link weights in graph data. Then, we propose a practical method for identifiable graph embedding. Finally, we numerically demonstrate that the proposed method well-recovers the latent vectors and model identifiability clearly depends on the maximum value of link weights, which supports the implication of our theoretical results


Discretized Distributed Optimization over Dynamic Digraphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider a discrete-time model of continuous-time distributed optimization over dynamic directed-graphs (digraphs) with applications to distributed learning. Our optimization algorithm works over general strongly connected dynamic networks under switching topologies, e.g., in mobile multi-agent systems and volatile networks due to link failures. Compared to many existing lines of work, there is no need for bi-stochastic weight designs on the links. The existing literature mostly needs the link weights to be stochastic using specific weight-design algorithms needed both at the initialization and at all times when the topology of the network changes. This paper eliminates the need for such algorithms and paves the way for distributed optimization over time-varying digraphs. We derive the bound on the gradient-tracking step-size and discrete time-step for convergence and prove dynamic stability using arguments from consensus algorithms, matrix perturbation theory, and Lyapunov theory. This work, particularly, is an improvement over existing stochastic-weight undirected networks in case of link removal or packet drops. This is because the existing literature may need to rerun time-consuming and computationally complex algorithms for stochastic design, while the proposed strategy works as long as the underlying network is weight-symmetric and balanced. The proposed optimization framework finds applications to distributed classification and learning.


MAGNNETO: A Graph Neural Network-based Multi-Agent system for Traffic Engineering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Current trends in networking propose the use of Machine Learning (ML) for a wide variety of network optimization tasks. As such, many efforts have been made to produce ML-based solutions for Traffic Engineering (TE), which is a fundamental problem in ISP networks. Nowadays, state-of-the-art TE optimizers rely on traditional optimization techniques, such as Local search, Constraint Programming, or Linear programming. In this paper, we present MAGNNETO, a distributed ML-based framework that leverages Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning and Graph Neural Networks for distributed TE optimization. MAGNNETO deploys a set of agents across the network that learn and communicate in a distributed fashion via message exchanges between neighboring agents. Particularly, we apply this framework to optimize link weights in OSPF, with the goal of minimizing network congestion. In our evaluation, we compare MAGNNETO against several state-of-the-art TE optimizers in more than 75 topologies (up to 153 nodes and 354 links), including realistic traffic loads. Our experimental results show that, thanks to its distributed nature, MAGNNETO achieves comparable performance to state-of-the-art TE optimizers with significantly lower execution times. Moreover, our ML-based solution demonstrates a strong generalization capability to successfully operate in new networks unseen during training.


Is Machine Learning Ready for Traffic Engineering Optimization?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traffic Engineering (TE) is a basic building block of the Internet. In this paper, we analyze whether modern Machine Learning (ML) methods are ready to be used for TE optimization. We address this open question through a comparative analysis between the state of the art in ML and the state of the art in TE. To this end, we first present a novel distributed system for TE that leverages the latest advancements in ML. Our system implements a novel architecture that combines Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) and Graph Neural Networks (GNN) to minimize network congestion. In our evaluation, we compare our MARL+GNN system with DEFO, a network optimizer based on Constraint Programming that represents the state of the art in TE. Our experimental results show that the proposed MARL+GNN solution achieves equivalent performance to DEFO in a wide variety of network scenarios including three real-world network topologies. At the same time, we show that MARL+GNN can achieve significant reductions in execution time (from the scale of minutes with DEFO to a few seconds with our solution).


Canonicalizing Open Knowledge Bases with Multi-Layered Meta-Graph Neural Network

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Noun phrases and relational phrases in Open Knowledge Bases are often not canonical, leading to redundant and ambiguous facts. In this work, we integrate structural information (from which tuple, which sentence) and semantic information (semantic similarity) to do the canonicalization. We represent the two types of information as a multi-layered graph: the structural information forms the links across the sentence, relational phrase, and noun phrase layers; the semantic information forms weighted intra-layer links for each layer. We propose a graph neural network model to aggregate the representations of noun phrases and relational phrases through the multi-layered meta-graph structure. Experiments show that our model outperforms existing approaches on a public datasets in general domain.


Robust Graph Embedding with Noisy Link Weights

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose $\beta$-graph embedding for robustly learning feature vectors from data vectors and noisy link weights. A newly introduced empirical moment $\beta$-score reduces the influence of contamination and robustly measures the difference between the underlying correct expected weights of links and the specified generative model. The proposed method is computationally tractable; we employ a minibatch-based efficient stochastic algorithm and prove that this algorithm locally minimizes the empirical moment $\beta$-score. We conduct numerical experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets.


The Impact of Coevolution and Abstention on the Emergence of Cooperation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper explores the Coevolutionary Optional Prisoner's Dilemma (COPD) game, which is a simple model to coevolve game strategy and link weights of agents playing the Optional Prisoner's Dilemma game. We consider a population of agents placed in a lattice grid with boundary conditions. A number of Monte Carlo simulations are performed to investigate the impacts of the COPD game on the emergence of cooperation. Results show that the coevolutionary rules enable cooperators to survive and even dominate, with the presence of abstainers in the population playing a key role in the protection of cooperators against exploitation from defectors. We observe that in adverse conditions such as when the initial population of abstainers is too scarce/abundant, or when the temptation to defect is very high, cooperation has no chance of emerging. However, when the simple coevolutionary rules are applied, cooperators flourish.


Delving into neural networks and deep learning

#artificialintelligence

Machine learning is coming to the data center both to improve internal IT management and embed intelligence into key business processes. You have probably heard of a mystical deep learning, threatening to infuse everything from systems management to self-driving cars. Is this deep learning some really smart artificial intelligence that was just created and about to be unleashed on the world, or simply marketing hype aiming to re-launch complex machine learning algorithms in a better light? As DevOps is slowly taking over the IT landscape, its vital that IT pros understand it before jumping right into the movement. In this complimentary guide, discover an expert breakdown of how DevOps impacts day-to-day operations management in modern IT environments.