We study population convergence guarantees of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for smooth convex objectives in the interpolation regime, where the noise at optimum is zero or near zero. The behavior of the last iterate of SGD in this setting--particularly with large (constant) stepsizes--has received growing attention in recent years due to implications for the training of over-parameterized models, as well as to analyzing forgetting in continual learning and to understanding the convergence of the randomized Kaczmarz method for solving linear systems.

Theoretical works on supervised transfer learning (STL)--where the learner has access to labeled samples from both source and target distributions--have for the most part focused on statistical aspects of the problem, while efficient optimization has received less attention. We consider the problem of designing an SGD procedure for STL that alternates sampling between source and target data, while maintaining statistical transfer guarantees without prior knowledge of the quality of the source data. A main algorithmic difficulty is in understanding how to design such an adaptive sub-sampling mechanism at each SGD step, to automatically gain from the source when it is informative, or bias towards the target and avoid negative transfer when the source is less informative. We show that, such a mixed-sample SGD procedure is feasible for general prediction tasks with convex losses, rooted in tracking an abstract sequence of constrained convex programs that serve to maintain the desired transfer guarantees. We instantiate these results in the concrete setting of linear regression with square loss, and show that the procedure converges, with 1/ T rate, to a solution whose statistical performance on the target is adaptive to the a priori unknown quality of the source. Experiments with synthetic and real datasets support the theory.

Gaussian sketching, which consists of pre-multiplying the data with a random Gaussian matrix, is a widely used technique in data science and machine learning. Beyond computational benefits, this operation also provides differential privacy guarantees due to its inherent randomness. In this work, we revisit this operation through the lens of Rényi Differential Privacy (RDP), providing a refined privacy analysis that yields significantly tighter bounds than prior results. We then demonstrate how this improved analysis leads to performance improvement in different linear regression settings, establishing theoretical utility guarantees. Empirically, our methods improve performance across multiple datasets and, in several cases, reduce runtime.

Shuffled regression is the problem of learning regression functions from shuffled data where the correspondence between the input features and target response is unknown. This paper proposes a probabilistic model for shuffled regression called Gaussian Process Shuffled Regression (GPSR). By introducing Gaussian processes as a prior of regression functions in function space via the kernel function, GPSR can express a wide variety of functions in a nonparametric manner while quantifying the uncertainty of the prediction. By adopting the Bayesian evidence maximization framework and a theoretical analysis of the connection between the marginal likelihood/predictive distribution of GPSR and that of standard Gaussian process regression (GPR), we derive an easy-to-implement inference algorithm for GPSR that iteratively applies GPR and updates the input-output correspondence. To reduce computation costs and obtain closed-form solutions for correspondence updates, we also develop a sparse approximate variant of GPSR using its weight space formulation, which can be seen as Bayesian shuffled linear regression with random Fourier features. Experiments on benchmark datasets confirm the effectiveness of our GPSR proposal.

GPUs have significantly accelerated first-order methods for large-scale optimization, especially in continuous optimization. However, this success has not transferred cleanly to problems with discrete variables, combinatorial structure, and nonlinear objectives, such as certifying optimal solutions for cardinality-constrained generalized linear models. Major challenges include the sequential processing of heterogeneous nodes in branch and bound (BnB) and frequent data movement between the CPU and GPU. We propose a simple, generic, and modular CPU--GPU framework that processes multiple BnB nodes in batches on GPUs. The framework is built around a small set of GPU-efficient routines and uses padding together with lightweight custom kernels to handle irregular node data structures. Experiments show one to two orders of magnitude speedups and zero optimality gap on challenging instances. The framework can also be extended to collect the entire Rashomon set, enabling downstream statistical analysis such as variable-importance analysis and model selection under secondary user-specific measures (e.g., AUC in classification).

The construction of models from data is a significant contributor to the energetic costs of computation. Because of this, understanding how foundational thermodynamic bounds apply to modeling algorithms will be increasingly important. Here, we study the thermodynamic costs of a basic and fundamental modeling algorithm: simple linear regression. Following Landauer, we approximate the thermodynamic lower bound on irreversibly performing both exact linear regression and linear regression via stochastic gradient descent as implemented on floating-point numbers. From this, we derive energycost aware scaling laws for the optimal dataset size for training a linear regression model given a generalization error dependent demand for inference. Additionally, we discuss a method to lower bound the entropy production from the mismatch cost for algorithms with continuous input variables.

Stochastic gradient methods are central to modern large-scale learning, but their use with incomplete covariates remains delicate since imputation schemes generally introduce systematic gradient biases, as shown for linear models. In this work, we prove that all parametric models exhibit similar gradient bias for various imputation procedures and characterize exactly the dependence on the missingness ratio vector $p$, with $O(\|p\|)$ as the leading term. We exploit this analysis to propose a simple debiasing procedure for stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with missing values based on Richardson extrapolation, which leverages the exact expression of the gradient bias. The key idea is to \emph{deliberately add missingness}: from an already incomplete observation, we generate a further-thinned version at a higher, controlled missingness level, and combine the two resulting stochastic gradients to cancel the leading bias term. We prove that one Richardson step reduces the gradient bias from $O(\|p\|)$ to $O(\|p\|^2)$ under several missingness scenarios. Our proposed method is computationally efficient, model-agnostic and applies to any parametric loss whose stochastic gradient can be computed after imputation. Furthermore, when missing indicators are independent, the population gradient bias is a multilinear polynomial in $p$ and depends only on population gradient errors induced by declaring a single coordinate missing. In this case, our method generalizes to a multi-step Richardson procedure which recursively cancels higher-order terms. Empirically, Richardson debiasing improves optimization and estimation across several generalized linear models and combines positively with widely used imputation procedures such as MICE. These results suggest that, somewhat counter-intuitively, adding controlled missingness on top of existing missing data can make stochastic learning from incomplete data more accurate.

We revisit the problem of robust linear regression under Gaussian covariates with an unknown covariance matrix of condition number $κ$. For this fundamental problem, significant gaps remain in our understanding of the trade-offs among sample complexity, condition number, runtime, and prediction error for efficient algorithms. Our first result is a near-linear-time algorithm that uses $\widetilde{O}(d/ε^4)$ samples, where $d$ is the dimension and $ε$ is the corruption rate, and achieves prediction error $O(\sqrt{εκ})$ under the condition $εκ\lesssim 1$, improving over all prior works. We complement this result with a Statistical Query (SQ) lower bound showing that efficient SQ algorithms achieving error $o(\sqrt{εκ})$ when $εκ\lesssim 1$ require queries that take $Ω(d^2)$ samples to simulate. Finally, we prove a low-degree polynomial lower bound that gives fine-grained evidence that, without assumptions such as $εκ\lesssim 1$, efficient algorithms may require $\tildeΩ\left(\min\{dε^{2}κ^{2},\ ε^{2}d^{2}\}\right)$ samples to significantly outperform the trivial estimator that always guesses $0$.

We present a novel theoretical framework, Q-MMR, for off-policy evaluation in finite-horizon MDPs. Q-MMR learns a set of scalar weights, one for each data point, such that the reweighted rewards approximate the expected return under the target policy. The weights are learned inductively in a top-down manner via a moment matching objective against a value-function discriminator class. Notably, and perhaps surprisingly, a data-dependent finite-sample guarantee for general function approximation can be established under only the realizability of $Q^π$, with a dimension-free bound -- that is, the error does not depend on the statistical complexity of the function class. We also establish connections to several existing methods, such as importance sampling and linear FQE. Further theoretical analyses shed new light on the nature of coverage, a concept of fundamental importance to offline RL.

Accurate trend forecasting in healthcare time series is essential for planning and resource allocation. This paper proposes a Bayesian framework for predicting oncology demand trends, modeling weekly appointments as a Poisson process with a Gamma prior to the demand rate. To enhance adaptability and capture persistent directional patterns, we incorporate a residual-based boosting mechanism grounded in a Gamma-Log-Normal conjugate structure. This boosting approach allows the model to track both short- and long-term trend shifts while maintaining the analytical tractability of conjugate Bayesian updating. The methodology was evaluated on real oncology service data from Cariri, Ceara, Brazil, and compared against established baselines, including linear regression, ARIMA, naive forecasting, LSTM neural networks, and XGBoost. Results showed that the proposed model outperforms competing methods in trend detection accuracy, with gains in terms of percentage of correct direction of 38.25% in relation to the second best approach in some cases.