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Planning with Dynamically Changing Domains

Soutchanski, Mikhail, Liu, Yongmei

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In classical planning and conformant planning, it is assumed that there are finitely many named objects given in advance, and only they can participate in actions and in fluents. This is the Domain Closure Assumption (DCA). However, there are practical planning problems where the set of objects changes dynamically as actions are performed; e.g., new objects can be created, old objects can be destroyed. We formulate the planning problem in first-order logic, assume an initial theory is a finite consistent set of fluent literals, discuss when this guarantees that in every situation there are only finitely many possible actions, impose a finite integer bound on the length of the plan, and propose to organize search over sequences of actions that are grounded at planning time. We show the soundness and completeness of our approach. It can be used to solve the bounded planning problems without DCA that belong to the intersection of sequential generalized planning (without sensing actions) and conformant planning, restricted to the case without the disjunction over fluent literals. We discuss a proof-of-the-concept implementation of our planner.


Counterfactual Explanations as Plans

Belle, Vaishak

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

There has been considerable recent interest in explainability in AI, especially with black-box machine learning models. As correctly observed by the planning community, when the application at hand is not a single-shot decision or prediction, but a sequence of actions that depend on observations, a richer notion of explanations are desirable. In this paper, we look to provide a formal account of ``counterfactual explanations," based in terms of action sequences. We then show that this naturally leads to an account of model reconciliation, which might take the form of the user correcting the agent's model, or suggesting actions to the agent's plan. For this, we will need to articulate what is true versus what is known, and we appeal to a modal fragment of the situation calculus to formalise these intuitions. We consider various settings: the agent knowing partial truths, weakened truths and having false beliefs, and show that our definitions easily generalize to these different settings.


Toward A Logical Theory Of Fairness and Bias

Belle, Vaishak

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Fairness in machine learning is of considerable interest in recent years owing to the propensity of algorithms trained on historical data to amplify and perpetuate historical biases. In this paper, we argue for a formal reconstruction of fairness definitions, not so much to replace existing definitions but to ground their application in an epistemic setting and allow for rich environmental modelling. Consequently we look into three notions: fairness through unawareness, demographic parity and counterfactual fairness, and formalise these in the epistemic situation calculus.


Learnability with PAC Semantics for Multi-agent Beliefs

Mocanu, Ionela G., Belle, Vaishak, Juba, Brendan

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The tension between deduction and induction is perhaps the most fundamental issue in areas such as philosophy, cognition and artificial intelligence. In an influential paper, Valiant recognised that the challenge of learning should be integrated with deduction. In particular, he proposed a semantics to capture the quality possessed by the output of Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learning algorithms when formulated in a logic. Although weaker than classical entailment, it allows for a powerful model-theoretic framework for answering queries. In this paper, we provide a new technical foundation to demonstrate PAC learning with multi-agent epistemic logics. To circumvent the negative results in the literature on the difficulty of robust learning with the PAC semantics, we consider so-called implicit learning where we are able to incorporate observations to the background theory in service of deciding the entailment of an epistemic query. We prove correctness of the learning procedure and discuss results on the sample complexity, that is how many observations we will need to provably assert that the query is entailed given a user-specified error bound. Finally, we investigate under what circumstances this algorithm can be made efficient. On the last point, given that reasoning in epistemic logics especially in multi-agent epistemic logics is PSPACE-complete, it might seem like there is no hope for this problem. We leverage some recent results on the so-called Representation Theorem explored for single-agent and multi-agent epistemic logics with the only knowing operator to reduce modal reasoning to propositional reasoning.


Improved Bitcoin Price Prediction based on COVID-19 data

Niamkova, Palina, Moreira, Rafael

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Social turbulence can affect people financial decisions, causing changes in spending and saving. During a global turbulence as significant as the COVID-19 pandemic, such changes are inevitable. Here we examine how the effects of COVID-19 on various jurisdictions influenced the global price of Bitcoin. We hypothesize that lock downs and expectations of economic recession erode people trust in fiat (government-issued) currencies, thus elevating cryptocurrencies. Hence, we expect to identify a causal relation between the turbulence caused by the pandemic, demand for Bitcoin, and ultimately its price. To test the hypothesis, we merged datasets of Bitcoin prices and COVID-19 cases and deaths. We also engineered extra features and applied statistical and machine learning (ML) models. We applied a Random Forest model (RF) to identify and rank the feature importance, and ran a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model on Bitcoin prices data set twice: with and without accounting for COVID-19 related features. We find that adding COVID-19 data into the LSTM model improved prediction of Bitcoin prices.


The Defeat of the Winograd Schema Challenge

Kocijan, Vid, Davis, Ernest, Lukasiewicz, Thomas, Marcus, Gary, Morgenstern, Leora

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Winograd Schema Challenge - a set of twin sentences involving pronoun reference disambiguation that seem to require the use of commonsense knowledge - was proposed by Hector Levesque in 2011. By 2019, a number of AI systems, based on large pre-trained transformer-based language models and fine-tuned on these kinds of problems, achieved better than 90% accuracy. In this paper, we review the history of the Winograd Schema Challenge and discuss the lasting contributions of the flurry of research that has taken place on the WSC in the last decade. We discuss the significance of various datasets developed for WSC, and the research community's deeper understanding of the role of surrogate tasks in assessing the intelligence of an AI system.


The new Turing test: Are you human?

#artificialintelligence

In 1950, when Alan Turing conceived "The Imitation Game" as a test of computer behavior, it was unimaginable that humans of the future would spend most hours of their day glued to a screen, inhabiting the world of machines more than the world of people. That is the Copernican Shift in AI. "I propose to consider the question, 'Can machines think?'" Buried in the controversy this summer about Google's LaMDA language model, which an engineer claimed was sentient, is a hint about a big change that's come over artificial intelligence since Alan Turing defined the idea of the "Turing Test" in an essay in 1950. Turing, a British mathematician who laid the groundwork for computing, offered what he called the "Imitation Game." Two entities, one a person, one a digital computer, are asked questions by a third entity, a human interrogator.


Levesque

AAAI Conferences

In this paper, we present an alternative to the Turing Test that has some conceptual and practical advantages. A Winograd schema is a pair of sentences that differ only in one or two words and that contain a referential ambiguity that is resolved in opposite directions in the two sentences. We have compiled a collection of Winograd schemas, designed so that the correct answer is obvious to the human reader, but cannot easily be found using selectional restrictions or statistical techniques over text corpora. A contestant in the Winograd Schema Challenge is presented with a collection of one sentence from each pair, and required to achieve human-level accuracy in choosing the correct disambiguation.


Lakemeyer

AAAI Conferences

Only-knowing was originally introduced by Levesque to capture the beliefs of an agent in the sense that its knowledge base is all the agent knows. When a knowledge base contains defaults Levesque also showed an exact correspondence between only-knowing and autoepistemic logic. Later these results were extended by Lakemeyer and Levesque to also capture a variant of autoepistemic logic proposed by Konolige and Reiter's default logic. One of the benefits of such an approach is that various nonmonotonic formalisms can be compared within a single monotonic logic leading, among other things, to the first axiom system for default logic. In this paper, we will bring another large class of nonmonotonic systems, which were first studied by McDermott and Doyle, into the only-knowing fold. Among other things, we will provide the first possible-world semantics for such systems, providing a new perspective on the nature of modal approaches to nonmonotonic reasoning.


Technical Perspective: The Importance of WINOGRANDE

Communications of the ACM

Excelling at a test often does not translate into excelling at the skills the test purports to measure. This is true not only of humans but also of AI systems, and the more so the greater the claims of the test's significance. This became evident less than a decade after the introduction of the Winograd Schema Challenge (WSC),3 a test designed to measure an AI system's commonsense reasoning (CSR) ability by answering simple questions. An example would be, given the information: The sculpture rolled off the shelf because it wasn't anchored, answering: What wasn't anchored? There are multiple AI systems2 that achieve human performance on the WSC but are not capable of performing CSR.