Lemma 5. Let S = (Z1,...,Zn) be a collection ofn independent random variables andΦ be an arbitrary random variable defined on the same probability space. Furthermore, each of these summands has zero mean. Given a deterministic algorithmf, we consider the algorithm that adds Gaussian noise to the predictionsoff: fσ(z,x,R)=f(z,x)+ξ, (151) whereξ N(0,σ2Id). Thefigureinthemiddle repeats the experiment of Figure 1a while making the training algorithm stochastic by randomizing the seed. Table 1: The architecture of the 4-layer convolutional neural network used in MNIST 4 vs 9 classification tasks.

Plasmodium falciparum malaria still poses one of the greatest threats to human life with over 200 million cases globally leading to half-million deaths annually. Of these, 90% of cases and of the mortality occurs in sub-Saharan Africa, mostly among children. Although malaria prediction systems are central to the 2016-2030 malaria Global Technical Strategy, currently these are inadequate at capturing and estimating the burden of disease in highly endemic countries. We developed and validated a computational system that exploits the predictive power of current Machine Learning approaches on 22-years of prospective data from the high-transmission holoendemic malaria urban-densely-populated sub-Saharan West-Africa metropolis of Ibadan. Our dataset of >9x104 screened study participants attending our clinical and community services from 1996 to 2017 contains monthly prevalence, temporal, environmental and host features. Our Locality-specific Elastic-Net based Malaria Prediction System (LEMPS) achieves good generalization performance, both in magnitude and direction of the prediction, when tasked to predict monthly prevalence on previously unseen validation data (MAE<=6x10-2, MSE<=7x10-3) within a range of (+0.1 to -0.05) error-tolerance which is relevant and usable for aiding decision-support in a holoendemic setting. LEMPS is well-suited for malaria prediction, where there are multiple features which are correlated with one another, and trading-off between regularization-strength L1-norm and L2-norm allows the system to retain stability. Data-driven systems are critical for regionally-adaptable surveillance, management of control strategies and resource allocation across stretched healthcare systems.