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A Mixed-Method Approach to Determining Contact Matrices in the Cox's Bazar Refugee Settlement

Walker, Joseph, Aylett-Bullock, Joseph, Shi, Difu, Maina, Allen Gidraf Kahindo, Evers, Egmond Samir, Harlass, Sandra, Krauss, Frank

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Contact matrices are an important ingredient in age-structured epidemic models to inform the simulated spread of the disease between sub-groups of the population. These matrices are generally derived using resource-intensive diary-based surveys and few exist in the Global South or tailored to vulnerable populations. In particular, no contact matrices exist for refugee settlements - locations under-served by epidemic models in general. In this paper we present a novel, mixed-method approach, for deriving contact matrices in populations which combines a lightweight, rapidly deployable, survey with an agent-based model of the population informed by census and behavioural data. We use this method to derive the first set of contact matrices for the Cox's Bazar refugee settlement in Bangladesh. The matrices from the refugee settlement show strong banding effects due to different age cut-offs in attendance at certain venues, such as distribution centres and religious sites, as well as the important contribution of the demographic profile of the settlement which was encoded in the model. These can have significant implications to the modelled disease dynamics. To validate our approach, we also apply our method to the population of the UK and compare our derived matrices against well-known contact matrices previously collected using traditional approaches. Overall, our findings demonstrate that our mixed-method approach can address some of the challenges of both the traditional and previously proposed agent-based approaches to deriving contact matrices, and has the potential to be rolled-out in other resource-constrained environments. This work therefore contributes to a broader aim of developing new methods and mechanisms of data collection for modelling disease spread in refugee and IDP settlements and better serving these vulnerable communities.


Cows have been potty-trained to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

New Scientist

Young cows have learned to urinate in a dedicated "latrine" that whisks the waste away before it can pollute waterways or trigger the release of harmful gases. What's more, nitrous oxide that arises when livestock urine and faeces mix can cause respiratory problems and contribute to global warming. By training cattle to void directly into a sort of "cow toilet", however, Lindsay Matthews at the University of Auckland in New Zealand and his colleagues have potentially found a way to keep water and air cleaner, improving health and welfare for both humans and animals. Matthews's team taught 16 5-month-old Holstein heifers to use a custom-built, plastic-grass-floored latrine when they felt the need to urinate, using a three-step training process. First, the team placed pairs of calves in the latrine until they urinated; then gave them a treat – either diluted molasses or barley – through an automatic dispenser and opened the exit door.


Ancient Roman mosaic reveals the dirty jokes that kept men amused as they urinated

Daily Mail - Science & tech

It seems humans have been scribbling dirty jokes on bathroom surfaces since the beginning of time. Archaeologists have discovered a pair of mosaics in a Roman-era latrine that depict well-known mythological scenes, each with its own raunchy spin. The 1,800-year-old mosaics, including an image of Narcissus admiring the reflection of his own penis, are an incredibly rare example of mosaic paving in the ancient latrines. Time has taken its toll on the ancient art piece, and only half of the Narcissus scene remains today. The mosaics feature humorous versions of the stories of Narcissus and Ganymede.