Everyone is obsessed with artificial general intelligence--the stage when AI can match all feats of human cognition. The guy who named it saw it as a threat. In the summer of 1956, a group of academics--now we'd call them computer scientists but there was no such thing then--met on Dartmouth College campus in New Hampshire to discuss how to make machines think like humans. One of them, John McCarthy, coined the term "artificial intelligence." This legendary meeting and the naming of a new field, is well known.

This study demonstrates the extent to which prominent debates about the future of AI are best understood as subjective, philosophical disagreements over the history and future of technological change rather than as objective, material disagreements over the technologies themselves. It focuses on the deep disagreements over whether artificial general intelligence (AGI) will prove transformative for human society; a question that is analytically prior to that of whether this transformative effect will help or harm humanity. The study begins by distinguishing two fundamental camps in this debate. The first of these can be identified as "transformationalists," who argue that continued AI development will inevitably have a profound effect on society. Opposed to them are "skeptics," a more eclectic group united by their disbelief that AI can or will live up to such high expectations. Each camp admits further "strong" and "weak" variants depending on their tolerance for epistemic risk. These stylized contrasts help to identify a set of fundamental questions that shape the camps' respective interpretations of the future of AI. Three questions in particular are focused on: the possibility of non-biological intelligence, the appropriate time frame of technological predictions, and the assumed trajectory of technological development. In highlighting these specific points of non-technical disagreement, this study demonstrates the wide range of different arguments used to justify either the transformationalist or skeptical position. At the same time, it highlights the strong argumentative burden of the transformationalist position, the way that belief in this position creates competitive pressures to achieve first-mover advantage, and the need to widen the concept of "expertise" in debates surrounding the future development of AI.

If the recent embrace of seemingly--and only seemingly--autonomous machines is any indication, something much less chic than the future premised in "The Matrix" awaits us. During the 1999 film's sequence of down-the-rabbit-hole scenes, Morpheus (Laurence Fishburne) flips the channel on the late-nineties metropolis as Neo (Keanu Reeves) knows it, revealing it to be a "computer-generated dream world" that pacifies a dozing human race whose bioelectricity is extracted by machines, for machines, circa 2197. The "world as it exists today" is instead a dark and decaying place--the "desert of the real," as Morpheus coolly puts it. It is also, he explains, the aftermath of early twenty-first-century optimism, a time when, he says, "we marvelled at our own magnificence as we gave birth to A.I." Still, dystopia as envisioned by the movie's directors, the Wachowskis (and their collaborators, on that film, particularly in production and costume design), looks pretty rad, in cinematic terms. The glint and thrum of Y2K aesthetics--as contrasted with the droning conservatism of the white-collar office--read as anticipatory rather than melancholic, looking toward a future liberated from systems of old.

A groundbreaking program has now made it possible to preserve your life stories and wisdom, allowing you to speak to loved ones decades into the future. StoryFile, an innovative AI company, has developed lifelike, interactive 3D avatars that allow people to'live on' after death, sharing memories and answering questions in the same natural and conversational manner of a real person. Individuals like philanthropist Michael Staenberg, 71, and Star Trek star William Shatner, 94, have used StoryFile to immortalize both their experiences and personalities. Staenberg, a property developer and philanthropist who has given away more than 850 million, said: 'I hope to pass my knowledge on, and the good I've created.' The technology captures video interviews, transforming them into hologram-style avatars that use generative AI, similar to ChatGPT, to respond dynamically to questions.

By 2030, rapid technological advancements are expected to reshape humanity, unlocking abilities once confined to science fiction--from superhuman strength to enhanced senses. Robotic exoskeletons may soon allow people to lift heavy objects with ease, while AI-powered wearables, such as smart glasses and earbuds, could provide real-time information and immersive augmented reality experiences. Healthcare may be revolutionized by microscopic nanobots capable of repairing tissue and fighting disease from within the bloodstream, potentially extending human lifespans. Developers are also working on contact lenses with infrared vision and devices that allow users to "feel" digital objects, paving the way for entirely new ways to experience the world. Tech pioneers like former Google engineer Ray Kurzweil believe these innovations are early steps toward the merging of humans and machines, with brain-computer interfaces offering direct access to digital intelligence.

A leading futurist who accurately predicted the rise of the iPhone has now set the date for humanity's most phenomenal breakthrough yet, the ability to cheat death. Ray Kurzweil, a former Google engineering director, has long been known for his bold predictions about the future of technology and humanity. His forecasts often focus on the convergence of biotech, AI, and nanotechnology to radically extend human capabilities. Now, Kurzweil claims humanity is just four years away from its most transformative leap yet, achieving'longevity escape velocity' by 2029. While some experts remain skeptical, Kurzweil's influence in Silicon Valley ensures his predictions continue to shape the broader conversation around life extension and the future of human health.

In a 30 million mansion perched on a cliff overlooking the Golden Gate Bridge, a group of AI researchers, philosophers, and technologists gathered to discuss the end of humanity. The Sunday afternoon symposium, called "Worthy Successor," revolved around a provocative idea from entrepreneur Daniel Faggella: The "moral aim" of advanced AI should be to create a form of intelligence so powerful and wise that "you would gladly prefer that it (not humanity) determine the future path of life itself." Faggella made the theme clear in his invitation. "This event is very much focused on posthuman transition," he wrote to me via X DMs. "Not on AGI that eternally serves as a tool for humanity."

What if you could live forever, staying healthy and young for centuries? Scientists and tech pioneers now believe this dream could become reality. In Silicon Valley, entrepreneurs like Bryan Johnson follow intense routines, like his'Blueprint' plan, to slow or reverse aging, and companies like Altos Labs are testing treatments that have already extended the lives of mice. Experts say we're on the cusp of technologies that could make immortality possible, and they've even set dates for when this future might arrive. Three visionaries stand out in this quest: futurologist Dr. Ian Pearson, Google's Ray Kurzweil, and biomedical researcher Aubrey de Grey.

Inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil, researcher and Brookings Institution fellow Chinasa T. Okolo, director of the U.S. Artificial Safety Institute (AISI) Elizabeth Kelly, and Cognizant CEO Ravi Kumar S, discussed the transformative power of AI during a panel at a TIME100 Impact Dinner in San Francisco on Monday. During the discussion, which was moderated by TIME's editor-in-chief Sam Jacobs, Kurzweil predicted that we will achieve Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), a type of AI that might be smarter than humans, by 2029. "Nobody really took it seriously until now," Kurzweil said about AI. "People are convinced it's going to either endow us with things we'd never had before, or it's going to kill us." Cognizant sponsored Monday's event, which celebrated the 100 most influential people leading change in AI. Jacobs probed the four panelists--three of whom were named to the 2024 list--about the opportunities and challenges presented by AI's rapid advancement.

A tech expert with a track record of predicting sea changes in the industry has made several eye-popping new forecasts in a new book. Google's Ray Kurzweil famously predicted the iPhone era and the fact that a computer would beat someone at chess by 1998. In his new book, 'The Singularity is Nearer', Kurzweil predicts that humans fully merge with AI, becoming immortal cyborgs, by 2045. He also predicts that advancements in AI will make it possible to resurrect loved ones and connect our brains to cloud technology, in what he calls the'fifth epoch' of human intelligence. Google's Ray Kurzweil believes immortality is around the corner (Getty) The singularity is the idea that artificial intelligence (AI) will eventually surpass human intelligence, fundamentally changing human existence.