Knowledge tracing (KT) aims to trace students' knowledge states by predicting whether students answer correctly on exercises. Despite the excellent performance of existing Transformer-based KT approaches, they are criticized for the manually selected input features for fusion and the defect of single global context modelling to directly capture students' forgetting behavior in KT, when the related records are distant from the current record in terms of time. To address the issues, this paper first considers adding convolution operations to the Transformer to enhance its local context modelling ability used for students' forgetting behavior, then proposes an evolutionary neural architecture search approach to automate the input feature selection and automatically determine where to apply which operation for achieving the balancing of the local/global context modelling. In the search space, the original global path containing the attention module in Transformer is replaced with the sum of a global path and a local path that could contain different convolutions, and the selection of input features is also considered. To search the best architecture, we employ an effective evolutionary algorithm to explore the search space and also suggest a search space reduction strategy to accelerate the convergence of the algorithm. Experimental results on the two largest and most challenging education datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the architecture found by the proposed approach.

Knowledge Tracing (KT) models face a critical ``Performance-Complexity Trap'': capturing complex cognitive dynamics like learning sessions and memory decay typically requires deep hierarchical architectures, which incur prohibitive computational costs for real-time deployment. To resolve this, we propose FlatFormer, a streamlined architecture based on the novel design paradigm of ``Information Injection over Structural Stacking.'' Unlike parameter-heavy hierarchical models, FlatFormer leverages a standard flat Transformer augmented with two lightweight injection mechanisms: (i) a hybrid input encoding strategy combining learnable session identifiers with fixed sinusoidal step embeddings; and (ii) a pre-computed power-law bias integrated directly into attention logits to explicitly model the forgetting curve. Extensive experiments on four large-scale datasets (e.g., EdNet, Junyi) show that FlatFormer achieves state-of-the-art performance. For example, on the EdNet dataset, compared to the strongest hierarchical baseline (HiTSKT), its absolute AUC increased by 8.3%, while using less than 15% of parameters, and inference speed was about three times faster. These results validate that high cognitive fidelity does not necessitate architectural complexity.

With the recent surge in personalized learning, Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS) that can accurately track students' individual knowledge states and provide tailored learning paths based on this information are in demand as an essential task. This paper focuses on the core technology of Knowledge Tracing (KT) models that analyze students' sequences of interactions to predict their knowledge acquisition levels. However, existing KT models suffer from limitations such as restricted input data formats, cold start problems arising with new student enrollment or new question addition, and insufficient stability in real-world service environments. To overcome these limitations, a Practical Interlinked Concept Knowledge Tracing (PICKT) model that can effectively process multiple types of input data is proposed. Specifically, a knowledge map structures the relationships among concepts considering the question and concept text information, thereby enabling effective knowledge tracing even in cold start situations. Experiments reflecting real operational environments demonstrated the model's excellent performance and practicality. The main contributions of this research are as follows. First, a model architecture that effectively utilizes diverse data formats is presented. Second, significant performance improvements are achieved over existing models for two core cold start challenges: new student enrollment and new question addition. Third, the model's stability and practicality are validated through delicate experimental design, enhancing its applicability in real-world product environments. This provides a crucial theoretical and technical foundation for the practical implementation of next-generation ITS.

Knowledge Tracing (KT) aims to mine students' evolving knowledge states and predict their future question-answering performance. Existing methods based on heterogeneous information networks (HINs) are prone to introducing noises due to manual or random selection of meta-paths and lack necessary quality assessment of meta-path instances. Conversely, recent large language models (LLMs)- based methods ignore the rich information across students, and both paradigms struggle to deliver consistently accurate and evidence-based explanations. To address these issues, we propose an innovative framework, HIN-LLM Synergistic Enhanced Knowledge Tracing (HISE-KT), which seam-lessly integrates HINs with LLMs. HISE-KT first builds a multi-relationship HIN containing diverse node types to capture the structural relations through multiple meta-paths. The LLM is then employed to intelligently score and filter meta-path instances and retain high-quality paths, pioneering automated meta-path quality assessment. Inspired by educational psychology principles, a similar student retrieval mechanism based on meta-paths is designed to provide a more valuable context for prediction. Finally, HISE-KT uses a structured prompt to integrate the target student's history with the retrieved similar trajectories, enabling the LLM to generate not only accurate predictions but also evidence-backed, explainable analysis reports. Experiments on four public datasets show that HISE-KT outperforms existing KT baselines in both prediction performance and interpretability.

A longstanding goal in computational educational research is to develop explainable knowledge tracing (KT) models. Deep Knowledge Tracing (DKT), which leverages a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to predict student knowledge and performance on exercises, has been proposed as a major advancement over traditional KT methods. Several studies suggest that its performance gains stem from its ability to model bidirectional relationships between different knowledge components (KCs) within a course, enabling the inference of a student's understanding of one KC from their performance on others. In this paper, we challenge this prevailing explanation and demonstrate that DKT's strength lies in its implicit ability to model prerequisite relationships as a causal structure, rather than bidirectional relationships. By pruning exercise relation graphs into Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and training DKT on causal subsets of the Assistments dataset, we show that DKT's predictive capabilities align strongly with these causal structures. Furthermore, we propose an alternative method for extracting exercise relation DAGs using DKT's learned representations and provide empirical evidence supporting our claim. Our findings suggest that DKT's effectiveness is largely driven by its capacity to approximate causal dependencies between KCs rather than simple relational mappings.

Knowledge tracing (KT) models are a crucial basis for pedagogical decision-making, namely which task to select next for a learner and when to stop teaching a particular skill. Given the high stakes of pedagogical decisions, KT models are typically required to be interpretable, in the sense that they should implement an explicit model of human learning and provide explicit estimates of learners' abilities. However, to our knowledge, no study to date has investigated whether the interpretability of KT models actually helps human teachers to make teaching decisions. We address this gap. First, we perform a simulation study to show that, indeed, decisions based on interpretable KT models achieve mastery faster compared to decisions based on a non-interpretable model. Second, we repeat the study but ask $N=12$ human teachers to make the teaching decisions based on the information provided by KT models. As expected, teachers rate interpretable KT models higher in terms of usability and trustworthiness. However, the number of tasks needed until mastery hardly differs between KT models. This suggests that the relationship between model interpretability and teacher decisions is not straightforward: teachers do not solely rely on KT models to make decisions and further research is needed to investigate how learners and teachers actually understand and use KT models.

Knowledge Tracing (KT) has been an established problem in the educational data mining field for decades, and it is commonly assumed that the underlying learning process being modeled remains static. Given the ever-changing landscape of online learning platforms (OLPs), we investigate how concept drift and changing student populations can impact student behavior within an OLP through testing model performance both within a single academic year and across multiple academic years. Four well-studied KT models were applied to five academic years of data to assess how susceptible KT models are to concept drift. Through our analysis, we find that all four families of KT models can exhibit degraded performance, Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) remains the most stable KT model when applied to newer data, while more complex, attention based models lose predictive power significantly faster.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Learning to learn is becoming a science, driven by the convergence of knowledge tracing, signal processing, and generative AI to model student learning states and optimize education. We propose CoTutor, an AI-driven model that enhances Bayesian Knowledge Tracing with signal processing techniques to improve student progress modeling and deliver adaptive feedback and strategies. Deployed as an AI copilot, CoTutor combines generative AI with adaptive learning technology. In university trials, it has demonstrated measurable improvements in learning outcomes while outperforming conventional educational tools. Our results highlight its potential for AI-driven personalization, scalability, and future opportunities for advancing privacy and ethical considerations in educational technology. Inspired by Richard Hamming's vision of computer-aided 'learning to learn,' CoTutor applies convex optimization and signal processing to automate and scale up learning analytics, while reserving pedagogical judgment for humans, ensuring AI facilitates the process of knowledge tracing while enabling learners to uncover new insights.

The main focus of research on Knowledge Tracing (KT) models is on model developments with the aim of improving predictive accuracy. Most of these models make the most incorrect predictions when students choose a distractor, leading to student errors going undetected. We present an approach to add new capabilities to KT models by capturing predictive uncertainty and demonstrate that a larger predictive uncertainty aligns with model incorrect predictions. We show that uncertainty in KT models is informative and that this signal would be pedagogically useful for application in an educational learning platform that can be used in a limited resource setting where understanding student ability is necessary.