Understanding how decision makers balance operational efficiency with environmental and ecological risks is central to vessel navigation. We model vessel speed as a control variable in a constrained optimization framework in which vessel operators balance multiple competing objectives, including transit efficiency, ice related navigational risk, and whale related ecological risk. The underlying risk parameters are estimated using over 14 million Automatic Identification System (AIS) observations from the United States Arctic (2010-2019), together with environmental covariates and spatially explicit whale density estimates. The framework incorporates a nonlinear risk objective, vessel heterogeneity, and regularization to ensure stable and interpretable results.The inferred trade offs reveal distinct decision making patterns across vessel groups and navigational statuses. Vessel types such as Tug Tow and Cargo balance operational speed with environmental and ecological considerations. In contrast, several vessel groups, including Fishing, Passenger, and Unspecified vessels, are strongly influenced by ice related risk, while Pleasure Craft and Tankers exhibit higher sensitivity to whale related risk. Across navigational status categories, similar heterogeneity is observed. The dominant status, under way using engine, displays a clear trade off, whereas other statuses, such as aground and undefined, are strongly shaped by ice related constraints. Statuses including restricted maneuverability and engaged in fishing exhibit higher estimated sensitivity to whale related risk, though with substantial uncertainty.Sensitivity analysis indicates that increasing whale-related risk weighting produces limited changes in model-implied optimal speed, whereas increasing ice-related risk leads to more consistent reductions.

We investigate the asymptotic properties of the Lévy Adaptive B-spline (LABS) regression model, a Bayesian nonparametric method that incorporates B-spline kernels into the Lévy Adaptive Regression Kernel (LARK) model. LABS applies splines of varying degrees with independently defined knots, yielding a flexible model class capable of adapting to irregular and locally structured features of the true function. Within the nonparametric regression framework with univariate random design and Gaussian errors, we establish that the LABS posterior contracts around the true function in Besov classes at nearly minimax-optimal rates, up to a logarithmic factor, while adapting automatically to unknown smoothness. This study contributes to filling a gap in the literature, where theoretical results on posterior contraction of the LARK model in Besov spaces remain scarce. Simulation experiments on standard test functions in Besov spaces, including Blocks, Bumps, HeaviSine, and Doppler, complement the theoretical results and demonstrate the practical utility of LABS.

Non-Gaussian statistics are a challenge for data assimilation. Linear methods oversimplify the problem, yet fully nonlinear methods are often too expensive to use in practice. The best solution usually lies between these extremes. Triangular measure transport offers a flexible framework for nonlinear data assimilation. Its success, however, depends on how the map is parametrized. Too much flexibility leads to overfitting; too little misses important structure. To address this balance, we develop an adaptation algorithm that selects a parsimonious parametrization automatically. Our method uses P-spline basis functions and an information criterion as a continuous measure of model complexity. This formulation enables gradient descent and allows efficient, fine-scale adaptation in high-dimensional settings. The resulting algorithm requires no hyperparameter tuning. It adjusts the transport map to the appropriate level of complexity based on the system statistics and ensemble size. We demonstrate its performance in nonlinear, non-Gaussian problems, including a high-dimensional distributed groundwater model.

Remarkably, the solutions learned for each individual task resemble those obtained by solving a kernel regression problem, revealing a novel connection between neural networks and kernel methods.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Supervised machine learning (ML) methods are emerging as valid alternatives to standard mathematical methods for identifying knots in long, collapsed polymers. Here, we introduce a hybrid supervised/unsupervised ML approach for knot classification based on a variational autoencoder enhanced with a knot type classifier (VAEC). The neat organization of knots in its latent representation suggests that the VAEC, only based on an arbitrary labeling of three-dimensional configurations, has grasped complex topological concepts such as chirality, unknotting number, braid index, and the grouping in families such as achiral, torus, and twist knots. The understanding of topological concepts is confirmed by the ability of the VAEC to distinguish the chirality of knots $9_{42}$ and $10_{71}$ not used for its training and with a notoriously undetected chirality to standard tools. The well-organized latent space is also key for generating configurations with the decoder that reliably preserves the topology of the input ones. Our findings demonstrate the ability of a hybrid supervised-generative ML algorithm to capture different topological features of entangled filaments and to exploit this knowledge to faithfully reconstruct or produce new knotted configurations without simulations.

We prove that the detection rate of n-crossing alternating links by many standard link invariants decays exponentially in n, implying that they detect alternating links with probability zero. This phenomenon applies broadly, in particular to the Jones and HOMFLYPT polynomials and integral Khovanov homology. We also use a big-data approach to analyze knots and provide evidence that, for knots as well, these invariants exhibit the same asymptotic failure of detection.

SplineNets are continuous generalizations of neural decision graphs, and they can dramatically reduce runtime complexity and computation costs of CNNs, while maintaining or even increasing accuracy. Functions of SplineNets are both dynamic ( i. e., conditioned on the input) and hierarchical ( i .e ., conditioned on the computational path). SplineNets employ a unified loss function with a desired level of smoothness over both the network and decision parameters, while allowing for sparse activation of a subset of nodes for individual samples. In particular, we embed infinitely many function weights (e. g. filters) on smooth, low dimensional manifolds parameterized by compact B-splines, which are indexed by a position parameter. Instead of sampling from a categorical distribution to pick a branch, samples choose a continuous position to pick a function weight. We further show that by maximizing the mutual information between spline positions and class labels, the network can be optimally utilized and specialized for classification tasks. Experiments show that our approach can significantly increase the accuracy of ResNets with negligible cost in speed, matching the precision of a 110 level ResNet with a 32 level SplineNet.

Abstract--Autonomous robotic systems heavily rely on environment knowledge to safely navigate. For search & rescue, a flying robot requires robust real-time perception, enabled by complementary sensors. IMU data constrains acceleration and rotation, whereas LiDAR measures accurate distances around the robot. Our new scan window uses non-uniform temporal knot placement to ensure continuity over the whole trajectory without additional scan delay. Moreover, we accelerate essential covariance and GMM computations with Kronecker sums and products by a factor of 3.3. An unscented transform de-skews surfels, while a splitting into intra-scan segments facilitates motion compensation during spline optimization. Complementary soft constraints on relative poses and preintegrated IMU pseudo-measurements further improve robustness and accuracy. ELIABLE real-time perception is essential for robotic autonomy. In particular, accurate mapping and ego-motion estimation are key components for safe interaction in complex and unstructured environments. Due to their precision and measurement density, modern LiDARs are often used in these scenarios, e.g., in the DARP A Subterranean Challenge [1], [2]. Sensor motion during scanning distorts the point cloud and degrades the quality of the map. This intra-scan motion is either compensated by de-skewing prior to registration [3], [4], [5], [6] or by modeling it with a continuous-time trajectory [7], [8], [9]. The former uses the previous state estimate and, optionally, an IMU to predict the motion and transform points to a common reference time. However, this comes at the cost of reduced real-time capability and requires either costly reintegration of surfels [9] or a limited number of selected pointwise features [e.g., CT -ICP [7], CLINS [8]]. To overcome these limitations of continuous-time methods, our novel real-time LiDAR-inertial odometry (LIO) jointly optimizes temporally partitioned scan segments (Figure 1) by registering multi-resolution surfel maps while an unscented transform (UT) compensates the intra-surfel motion. Manuscript received October XX, 2025; revised XX, 2025.

Detecting changepoints in a one-dimensional signal is a classical yet fundamental problem. The fused lasso provides an elegant convex formulation that produces a stepwise estimate of the mean, but quantifying the uncertainty of the detected changepoints remains difficult. Post-selection inference (PSI) offers a principled way to compute valid $p$-values after a data-driven selection, but its application to the fused lasso has been considered computationally cumbersome, requiring the tracking of many ``hit'' and ``leave'' events along the regularization path. In this paper, we show that the one-dimensional fused lasso has a surprisingly simple geometry: each changepoint enters in a strictly one-sided fashion, and there are no leave events. This structure implies that the so-called \emph{conservative spacing test} of Tibshirani et al.\ (2016), previously regarded as an approximation, is in fact \emph{exact}. The truncation region in the selective law reduces to a single lower bound given by the next knot on the LARS path. As a result, the exact selective $p$-value takes a closed form identical to the simple spacing statistic used in the LARS/lasso setting, with no additional computation. This finding establishes one of the rare cases in which an exact PSI procedure for the generalized lasso admits a closed-form pivot. We further validate the result by simulations and real data, confirming both exact calibration and high power. Keywords: fused lasso; changepoint detection; post-selection inference; spacing test; monotone LASSO