In real-world decision-making problems, one needs to pick among multiple policies the one that performs best while respecting economic constraints. This motivates the problem of constrained best-arm identification for bandit problems where every arm is a joint distribution of reward and cost. We investigate the general case where reward and cost are dependent. The goal is to accurately identify the arm with the highest mean reward among all arms whose mean cost is below a given threshold. We prove information-theoretic lower bounds on the sample complexity for three models: Gaussian with fixed covariance, Gaussian with unknown covariance, and non-parametric distributions of rectangular support. We propose a combination of a sampling and a stopping rule that correctly identifies the constrained best arm and matches the optimal sample complexities for each of the three models. Simulations demonstrate the performance of our algorithms.

This paper characterizes the best possible rate of growth of wealth in a Kelly betting game when repeatedly betting against a general i.i.d. null hypothesis $\mathscr{P}$, but the data are drawn i.i.d from an arbitrary alternative $Q$. We prove that it equals $\lim_{n \to \infty}n^{-1}\inf_{P \in (\mathscr P)^n)^{\circ\circ}} \mathrm{KL}(Q^n,P)$, where ${\mathscr P}^n = \{P^n: P \in \mathscr{P}\}$ and $(\mathscr {P}^n)^{\circ\circ}$ is its bipolar, i.e., this rate is achievable and one cannot do better. This quantity is in general smaller than a more popular quantity in the literature, $\mathrm{KL}_{\inf}(Q,\mathscr{P}) := \inf_{P \in \mathscr P}\mathrm{KL}(Q,P)$. If $\mathrm{KL}_{\mathrm{inf}}(\cdot,\mathscr P)$ is weakly lowersemicontinuous (w.l.s.c.) at $Q$, we show that the two quantities are equal; in particular, this happens when $\mathscr P$ is weakly compact. For simple alternatives, we provide the first matching necessary and sufficient condition for when power-one sequential tests exist (without assumptions on $\mathscr P, Q$). We also derive the optimal worst-case growth rate against composite $\mathscr Q$. We emphasize that test supermartingales on reduced filtrations suffice for all i.i.d. testing problems, and more general e-processes are not required. We thus completely generalize the recent results of Larsson et al.~\cite{larsson2025numeraire} to the sequential setting.

Consider betting against a sequence of data in $[0,1]$, where one is allowed to make any bet that is fair if the data have a conditional mean $m_0 \in (0,1)$. Cover's universal portfolio algorithm delivers a worst-case regret of $O(\ln n)$ compared to the best constant bet in hindsight, and this bound is unimprovable against adversarially generated data. In this work, we present a novel mixture betting strategy that combines insights from Robbins and Cover, and exhibits a different behavior: it eventually produces a regret of $O(\ln \ln n)$ on \emph{almost} all paths (a measure-one set of paths if each conditional mean equals $m_0$ and intrinsic variance increases to $\infty$), but has an $O(\log n)$ regret on the complement (a measure zero set of paths). Our paper appears to be the first to point out the value in hedging two very different strategies to achieve a best-of-both-worlds adaptivity to stochastic data and protection against adversarial data. We contrast our results to those in~\cite{agrawal2025regret} for a sub-Gaussian mixture on unbounded data: their worst-case regret has to be unbounded, but a similar hedging delivers both an optimal betting growth-rate and an almost sure $\ln\ln n$ regret on stochastic data. Finally, our strategy witnesses a sharp game-theoretic upper law of the iterated logarithm, analogous to~\cite{shafer2005probability}.

Hybrid clustering combines partitional and hierarchical clustering for computational effectiveness and versatility in cluster shape. In such clustering, a dissimilarity measure plays a crucial role in the hierarchical merging. The dissimilarity measure has great impact on the final clustering, and data-independent properties are needed to choose the right dissimilarity measure for the problem at hand. Properties for distance-based dissimilarity measures have been studied for decades, but properties for density-based dissimilarity measures have so far received little attention. Here, we propose six data-independent properties to evaluate density-based dissimilarity measures associated with hybrid clustering, regarding equality, orthogonality, symmetry, outlier and noise observations, and light-tailed models for heavy-tailed clusters. The significance of the properties is investigated, and we study some well-known dissimilarity measures based on Shannon entropy, misclassification rate, Bhattacharyya distance and Kullback-Leibler divergence with respect to the proposed properties. As none of them satisfy all the proposed properties, we introduce a new dissimilarity measure based on the Kullback-Leibler information and show that it satisfies all proposed properties. The effect of the proposed properties is also illustrated on several real and simulated data sets.