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The optimal betting wealth growth rate

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper characterizes the best possible rate of growth of wealth in a Kelly betting game when repeatedly betting against a general i.i.d. null hypothesis $\mathscr{P}$, but the data are drawn i.i.d from an arbitrary alternative $Q$. We prove that it equals $\lim_{n \to \infty}n^{-1}\inf_{P \in (\mathscr P)^n)^{\circ\circ}} \mathrm{KL}(Q^n,P)$, where ${\mathscr P}^n = \{P^n: P \in \mathscr{P}\}$ and $(\mathscr {P}^n)^{\circ\circ}$ is its bipolar, i.e., this rate is achievable and one cannot do better. This quantity is in general smaller than a more popular quantity in the literature, $\mathrm{KL}_{\inf}(Q,\mathscr{P}) := \inf_{P \in \mathscr P}\mathrm{KL}(Q,P)$. If $\mathrm{KL}_{\mathrm{inf}}(\cdot,\mathscr P)$ is weakly lowersemicontinuous (w.l.s.c.) at $Q$, we show that the two quantities are equal; in particular, this happens when $\mathscr P$ is weakly compact. For simple alternatives, we provide the first matching necessary and sufficient condition for when power-one sequential tests exist (without assumptions on $\mathscr P, Q$). We also derive the optimal worst-case growth rate against composite $\mathscr Q$. We emphasize that test supermartingales on reduced filtrations suffice for all i.i.d. testing problems, and more general e-processes are not required. We thus completely generalize the recent results of Larsson et al.~\cite{larsson2025numeraire} to the sequential setting.


Cover meets Robbins while Betting on Bounded Data: $\ln n$ Regret and Almost Sure $\ln\ln n$ Regret

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Consider betting against a sequence of data in $[0,1]$, where one is allowed to make any bet that is fair if the data have a conditional mean $m_0 \in (0,1)$. Cover's universal portfolio algorithm delivers a worst-case regret of $O(\ln n)$ compared to the best constant bet in hindsight, and this bound is unimprovable against adversarially generated data. In this work, we present a novel mixture betting strategy that combines insights from Robbins and Cover, and exhibits a different behavior: it eventually produces a regret of $O(\ln \ln n)$ on \emph{almost} all paths (a measure-one set of paths if each conditional mean equals $m_0$ and intrinsic variance increases to $\infty$), but has an $O(\log n)$ regret on the complement (a measure zero set of paths). Our paper appears to be the first to point out the value in hedging two very different strategies to achieve a best-of-both-worlds adaptivity to stochastic data and protection against adversarial data. We contrast our results to those in~\cite{agrawal2025regret} for a sub-Gaussian mixture on unbounded data: their worst-case regret has to be unbounded, but a similar hedging delivers both an optimal betting growth-rate and an almost sure $\ln\ln n$ regret on stochastic data. Finally, our strategy witnesses a sharp game-theoretic upper law of the iterated logarithm, analogous to~\cite{shafer2005probability}.


On Data-Independent Properties for Density-Based Dissimilarity Measures in Hybrid Clustering

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Hybrid clustering combines partitional and hierarchical clustering for computational effectiveness and versatility in cluster shape. In such clustering, a dissimilarity measure plays a crucial role in the hierarchical merging. The dissimilarity measure has great impact on the final clustering, and data-independent properties are needed to choose the right dissimilarity measure for the problem at hand. Properties for distance-based dissimilarity measures have been studied for decades, but properties for density-based dissimilarity measures have so far received little attention. Here, we propose six data-independent properties to evaluate density-based dissimilarity measures associated with hybrid clustering, regarding equality, orthogonality, symmetry, outlier and noise observations, and light-tailed models for heavy-tailed clusters. The significance of the properties is investigated, and we study some well-known dissimilarity measures based on Shannon entropy, misclassification rate, Bhattacharyya distance and Kullback-Leibler divergence with respect to the proposed properties. As none of them satisfy all the proposed properties, we introduce a new dissimilarity measure based on the Kullback-Leibler information and show that it satisfies all proposed properties. The effect of the proposed properties is also illustrated on several real and simulated data sets.