When life calls on us to project confidence, whether you're going in for a major job interview, pitching investors or networking at a big conference, the old adage is just to fake it until you make it. But a new study from New York's Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory released this week looks at whether the human feeling of confidence can be broken down into objective mathematical calculation. Choices that are big, such as launching a new venture, or small, such as deciding when to merge onto the highway, all require a careful weighing of the risks involved. Of course, some of these judgement calls have to occur faster than others. The study's lead author, associate professor of neuroscience Adam Kepecs, explained the driving question behind the research.

The directions, which came via cell phone, were a little garbled, but as you understood them: "Turn left at the 3rd light and go straight; the restaurant will be on your right side." Ten minutes ago you made the turn. How far will you be willing to drive in the same direction? Research suggests that it depends on your initial level of confidence after getting the directions. Did you hear them right?

The word confidence is used both for the human feeling that a decision is correct and for the mathematical reliability of a calculated answer. Now it seems these two meanings are more similar than expected. Even though you don't know it, most of your decisions are actually based on statistics rather than intuition. The word confidence is used both for the human feeling that a decision is correct and for the mathematical reliability of a calculated answer. Now it seems these meanings are more similar than thought.