The agency that oversees prediction markets has investigated Polymarket trades on Biden pardons and the Iran war--and even more potential insider trading at Google, documents obtained by WIRED show. The US government launched at least three previously unreported investigations into trading on the prediction market Polymarket, according to documents obtained by WIRED through a Freedom of Information Act request. Voting records from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that regulates prediction markets, shed new light on how the government approaches these investigations. In early May, CFTC chairman Michael Selig approved an order allowing the agency's enforcement division to launch a private investigation into potential insider trading on Polymarket event contracts related to pardons issued by former president Joseph Biden. The order granted permission to take testimony, obtain subpoenas, administer oaths, and require the production of documents in the course of the investigation.

Look Up Back to School Mashable's Best: E-readers, robovacs, laptops, earbuds, smart home and more Mashable Selects Say More Trending Now Good Connection: Uplifting stories for a digital age Creator Playbook Switch Off Mashable Voices Safety Net Versus All Series Polymarket and Kalshi face possible regulation as Supreme Court'monitors the situation' Prediction markets regulated as gambling platforms by individual states? Shannon Connellan is Mashable's Senior Editor, General Assignments, based in London. She has been Mashable's UK Editor (and still manages the illustrious UK team) and Australia Editor, but emotionally, she lives searching for . A Tomatometer-approved critic, Shannon writes about entertainment, tech, social good, science, culture, and Australian horror, and loves to nerd out with movie stars, filmmakers, and TV creators . SCOTUS is the focus for state regulators aimed at Kalshi.

This week on, we dig into the latest prediction market buzz, Flock's AI-powered police search tool, and how tech bros don't know how to talk about "rouge" AI agents This week, senior writer Kate Knibbs joins Brian Barrett, Zoë Schiffer, and Leah Feiger to discuss the two incidents that have been making noise in prediction markets: George Santos getting lifetime ban from Kalshi and a Google engineer's Polymarket insider-trading case. Plus, reporters reverse-engineered Flock's AI-powered person-search tool and spoke to experts about the accuracy of such technology, and the hosts unpack the online meltdown over how to talk about "rogue" AI agents. George Santos Just Got Hit With Kalshi's First-Ever Lifetime Ban This Is Flock's AI Search Tool for Cops What We Still Don't Know About OpenAI's Hugging Face Hack Write to us at [email protected] . You can always listen to this week's podcast through the audio player on this page, but if you want to subscribe for free to get every episode, here's how: If you're on an iPhone or iPad, open the app called Podcasts, or just tap this link . It's so nice to see you guys. Former US representative George Santos was the first person to be given a lifetime ban from Kalshi, and a Google engineer was accused of insider trading at Polymarket. We'll get into why both of these cases show that there are still plenty of blurry rules when it comes to prediction markets. This week, WIRED reporters were able to recreate Flock's AI powered search tool, the same one that has a track record of being misused by police officers. We're going to break down how it works, and whether the backlash against Flock cameras might have reached its boiling point. Do you guys remember George Santos?

Say More Look Up Switch Off Mashable's Best: E-readers, robovacs, laptops, earbuds, smart home and more Creator Playbook Mashable Voices Trending Now Mashable Selects Safety Net Versus Gift Ideas For Everyone On Your List In My Bag All Series Prediction markets like Kalshi violate sports betting laws, ruling says. Rebecca Ruiz is a Senior Reporter at Mashable. She frequently covers mental health, digital culture, and technology. Her areas of expertise include suicide prevention, screen use and mental health, parenting, youth well-being, and meditation and mindfulness. Rebecca's experience prior to Mashable includes working as a staff writer, reporter, and editor at NBC News Digital and as a staff writer at Forbes.

Jacob Fortinsky, the CEO and cofounder of the new prediction market Novig, says his outfit isn't like those other markets. Twenty-eight-year-old Jacob Fortinsky has been busy. "I was a groomsman at two weddings this weekend," he tells me over Zoom. Also, the sports trading company he runs, Novig, launched its prediction market last week, facilitating $18 million in trading volume on its first day. Today, Novig launches a "responsible trading framework" in its exchange rulebook, codifying its guardrails as part of its effort to be seen as a kinder, gentler prediction market player.

A White House teleprompter operator is being investigated over allegedly using inside information to place bets and make nearly $100,000 on US President Donald Trump's speeches. Gabriel Perez, who had worked at the White House since 2016, is accused of placing bets on words the president would use during major public addresses, including the State of the Union speech. The trades were made on Kalshi, a prediction markets platform where users can bet on real-world events. The firm confirmed it reported the activity to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates the platform. Kalshi froze Perez's account before any profits could be withdrawn, according to reports.

One of Kalshi's most prominent traders tells WIRED he's swearing off Spotify-related markets until the issue is resolved. Top Kalshi trader Caleb Davies usually speaks to the press about how prediction markets help him rake in money. The Minneapolis-based IT worker estimates he's made $1.2 million overall across different prediction platforms, with $414,000 in winnings from Kalshi's culture markets alone. He especially enjoys wagering on music charts, because he carefully analyzes Spotify data to pick winners. "Every single morning, I'm going in, downloading the data, and updating my projections," he tells WIRED.

Mark Moran, an underdog Senate candidate from Virginia, claims he wanted to get caught violating the prediction market platform's rules. Kalshi announced Wednesday that it had taken action against three US politicians for violating the prediction market platform's rules on insider trading. One of the candidates, Mark Moran, a former investment banker and contestant on the reality dating show, is running a long-shot campaign for US Senate in Virginia against incumbent Mark Warner. According to Moran, getting caught was actually his plan all along: "I bet $100 on myself, not denying that, I did do it," he tells WIRED. "I wanted to see if they would enforce it."

As the prediction market boom continues, backlash is growing, too, with Arizona filing criminal charges against Kalshi and public outcry after Polymarket traders threatened a journalist. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour posted a video on Wednesday of six men decked out in business casual doing push-ups on the sidewalk. "This is how Kalshi Q1 board meeting ended," he wrote on X. The board members are laughing and smiling in the video after their impromptu cardio session, and the mood is jubilant. The next day, it became clear that the team had ample reason to celebrate: Kalshi had just raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation, making the company worth on paper roughly double what it was only a few months ago.

A judge ordered Kalshi to immediately halt sports and election contracts in the state, intensifying a growing regulatory battle over prediction markets. Kalshi has been temporarily banned in Nevada, marking the latest escalation in the widening regulatory war over prediction markets. The First Judicial District Court of Nevada has issued a 14-day restraining order, effective immediately, barring the company from "offering a derivatives exchange and prediction market which offers event-based contracts relating to sports, election, and entertainment related events" without first obtaining gaming licenses. This is the first time a US state has forced the company to cease operations. This particular legal battle began just over a year ago, when Nevada regulators sent Kalshi a cease-and-desist letter demanding that it stop offering sports-related events contracts.