As artificial intelligence and machine learning tools become more accessible, and scientists face new obstacles to data collection (e.g., rising costs, declining survey response rates), researchers increasingly use predictions from pre-trained algorithms as substitutes for missing or unobserved data. Though appealing for financial and logistical reasons, using standard tools for inference can misrepresent the association between independent variables and the outcome of interest when the true, unobserved outcome is replaced by a predicted value. In this paper, we characterize the statistical challenges inherent to drawing inference with predicted data (IPD) and show that high predictive accuracy does not guarantee valid downstream inference. We show that all such failures reduce to statistical notions of (i) bias, when predictions systematically shift the estimand or distort relationships among variables, and (ii) variance, when uncertainty from the prediction model and the intrinsic variability of the true data are ignored. We then review recent methods for conducting IPD and discuss how this framework is deeply rooted in classical statistical theory. We then comment on some open questions and interesting avenues for future work in this area, and end with some comments on how to use predicted data in scientific studies that is both transparent and statistically principled.

ABSTRACT This study presents a systematic evaluation of time-frequency feature design for binaural sound source localization (SSL), focusing on how feature selection influences model performance across diverse conditions. We investigate the performance of a convolu-tional neural network (CNN) model using various combinations of amplitude-based features (magnitude spectrogram, interaural level difference - ILD) and phase-based features (phase spectrogram, interaural phase difference - IPD). Evaluations on in-domain and out-of-domain data with mismatched head-related transfer functions (HRTFs) reveal that carefully chosen feature combinations often outperform increases in model complexity. While two-feature sets such as ILD + IPD are sufficient for in-domain SSL, generalization to diverse content requires richer inputs combining channel spectrograms with both ILD and IPD. Using the optimal feature sets, our low-complexity CNN model achieves competitive performance. Our findings underscore the importance of feature design in binaural SSL and provide practical guidance for both domain-specific and general-purpose localization.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being deployed as autonomous agents in real-world environments. As these deployments scale, multi-agent interactions become inevitable, making it essential to understand strategic behavior in such systems. A central open question is whether LLM agents, like reinforcement learning agents, can shape the learning dynamics and influence the behavior of others through interaction alone. In this paper, we present the first investigation of opponent shaping (OS) with LLM-based agents. Existing OS algorithms cannot be directly applied to LLMs, as they require higher-order derivatives, face scalability constraints, or depend on architectural components that are absent in transformers. To address this gap, we introduce ShapeLLM, an adaptation of model-free OS methods tailored for transformer-based agents. Using ShapeLLM, we examine whether LLM agents can influence co-players' learning dynamics across diverse game-theoretic environments. We demonstrate that LLM agents can successfully guide opponents toward exploitable equilibria in competitive games (Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma, Matching Pennies, and Chicken) and promote coordination and improve collective welfare in cooperative games (Iterated Stag Hunt and a cooperative version of the Prisoner's Dilemma). Our findings show that LLM agents can both shape and be shaped through interaction, establishing opponent shaping as a key dimension of multi-agent LLM research.

Reconstructing individual patient data (IPD) from Kaplan-Meier (KM) plots provides valuable insights for evidence synthesis in clinical research. However, existing approaches often rely on manual digitization, which is error-prone and lacks scalability. To address these limitations, we develop KM-GPT, the first fully automated, AI-powered pipeline for reconstructing IPD directly from KM plots with high accuracy, robustness, and reproducibility. KM-GPT integrates advanced image preprocessing, multi-modal reasoning powered by GPT-5, and iterative reconstruction algorithms to generate high-quality IPD without manual input or intervention. Its hybrid reasoning architecture automates the conversion of unstructured information into structured data flows and validates data extraction from complex KM plots. To improve accessibility, KM-GPT is equipped with a user-friendly web interface and an integrated AI assistant, enabling researchers to reconstruct IPD without requiring programming expertise. KM-GPT was rigorously evaluated on synthetic and real-world datasets, consistently demonstrating superior accuracy. To illustrate its utility, we applied KM-GPT to a meta-analysis of gastric cancer immunotherapy trials, reconstructing IPD to facilitate evidence synthesis and biomarker-based subgroup analyses. By automating traditionally manual processes and providing a scalable, web-based solution, KM-GPT transforms clinical research by leveraging reconstructed IPD to enable more informed downstream analyses, supporting evidence-based decision-making.

Digital individual participant data (IPD) from clinical trials are increasingly distributed for potential scientific reuse. The identification of available IPD, however, requires interpretations of textual data-sharing statements (DSS) in large databases. Recent advancements in computational linguistics include pre-trained language models that promise to simplify the implementation of effective classifiers based on textual inputs. In a subset of 5,000 textual DSS from ClinicalTrials.gov, we evaluate how well classifiers based on domain-specific pre-trained language models reproduce original availability categories as well as manually annotated labels. Typical metrics indicate that classifiers that predicted manual annotations outperformed those that learned to output the original availability categories. This suggests that the textual DSS descriptions contain applicable information that the availability categories do not, and that such classifiers could thus aid the automatic identification of available IPD in large trial databases.

Decision-making agents based on pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being deployed across various domains of human activity. While their applications are currently rather specialized, several research efforts are under way to develop more generalist agents. As LLM-based systems become more agentic, their influence on human activity will grow and the transparency of this will decrease. Consequently, developing effective methods for aligning them to human values is vital. The prevailing practice in alignment often relies on human preference data (e.g., in RLHF or DPO), in which values are implicit and are essentially deduced from relative preferences over different model outputs. In this work, instead of relying on human feedback, we introduce the design of reward functions that explicitly encode core human values for Reinforcement Learning-based fine-tuning of foundation agent models. Specifically, we use intrinsic rewards for the moral alignment of LLM agents. We evaluate our approach using the traditional philosophical frameworks of Deontological Ethics and Utilitarianism, quantifying moral rewards for agents in terms of actions and consequences on the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma (IPD) environment. We also show how moral fine-tuning can be deployed to enable an agent to unlearn a previously developed selfish strategy. Finally, we find that certain moral strategies learned on the IPD game generalize to several other matrix game environments. In summary, we demonstrate that fine-tuning with intrinsic rewards is a promising general solution for aligning LLM agents to human values, and it might represent a more transparent and cost-effective alternative to currently predominant alignment techniques.

--In this contribution, we introduce the concept of Instance Performance Difference (IPD), a metric designed to measure the gap in performance that a robotics perception task experiences when working with real vs. By pairing synthetic and real instances in the pictures and evaluating their performance similarity using perception algorithms, IPD provides a targeted metric that closely aligns with the needs of real-world applications. We explain and demonstrate this metric through a rock detection task in lunar terrain images, highlighting the IPD's effectiveness in identifying the most realistic image synthesis method. The metric is thus instrumental in creating synthetic image datasets that perform in perception tasks like real-world photo counterparts. In turn, this supports robust sim-to-real transfer for perception algorithms in real-world robotics applications.

Subspace clustering (SC) algorithms utilize the union of subspaces model to cluster data points according to the subspaces from which they are drawn. To better address separability of subspaces and robustness to noise we propose a wavelet packet (WP) based transform domain subspace clustering. Depending on the number of resolution levels, WP yields several representations instantiated in terms of subbands. The first approach combines original and subband data into one complementary multi-view representation. Afterward, we formulate joint representation learning as a low-rank MERA tensor network approximation problem. That is motivated by the strong representation power of the MERA network to capture complex intra/inter-view dependencies in corresponding self-representation tensor. In the second approach, we use a self-stopping computationally efficient method to select the subband with the smallest clustering error on the validation set. When existing SC algorithms are applied to the chosen subband, their performance is expected to improve. Consequently, both approaches enable the re-use of SC algorithms developed so far. Improved clustering performance is due to the dual nature of subbands as representations and filters, which is essential for noise suppression. We exemplify the proposed WP domain approach to SC on the MERA tensor network and eight other well-known linear SC algorithms using six well-known image datasets representing faces, digits, and objects. Although WP domain-based SC is a linear method, it achieved clustering performance comparable with some best deep SC algorithms and outperformed many other deep SC algorithms by a significant margin. That is in particular case for the WP MERA SC algorithm. On the COIL100 dataset, it achieves an accuracy of 87.45% and outperforms the best deep SC competitor in the amount of 14.75%.

The article argues that AI can enhance the measurement and implementation of democratic processes within political parties, known as Intra-Party Democracy (IPD). It identifies the limitations of traditional methods for measuring IPD, which often rely on formal parameters, self-reported data, and tools like surveys. Such limitations lead to the collection of partial data, rare updates, and significant demands on resources. To address these issues, the article suggests that specific data management and Machine Learning (ML) techniques, such as natural language processing and sentiment analysis, can improve the measurement (ML about) and practice (ML for) of IPD. The article concludes by considering some of the principal risks of ML for IPD, including concerns over data privacy, the potential for manipulation, and the dangers of overreliance on technology.

As artificial intelligence and machine learning tools become more accessible, and scientists face new obstacles to data collection (e.g. rising costs, declining survey response rates), researchers increasingly use predictions from pre-trained algorithms as outcome variables. Though appealing for financial and logistical reasons, using standard tools for inference can misrepresent the association between independent variables and the outcome of interest when the true, unobserved outcome is replaced by a predicted value. In this paper, we characterize the statistical challenges inherent to this so-called ``inference with predicted data'' problem and elucidate three potential sources of error: (i) the relationship between predicted outcomes and their true, unobserved counterparts, (ii) robustness of the machine learning model to resampling or uncertainty about the training data, and (iii) appropriately propagating not just bias but also uncertainty from predictions into the ultimate inference procedure.