We consider a continual learning (CL) problem with two linear regression tasks in the fixed design setting, where the feature vectors are assumed fixed and the labels are assumed to be random variables. We consider an $\ell_2$-regularized CL algorithm, which computes an Ordinary Least Squares parameter to fit the first dataset, then computes another parameter that fits the second dataset under an $\ell_2$-regularization penalizing its deviation from the first parameter, and outputs the second parameter. For this algorithm, we provide tight bounds on the average risk over the two tasks. Our risk bounds reveal a provable trade-off between forgetting and intransigence of the $\ell_2$-regularized CL algorithm: with a large regularization parameter, the algorithm output forgets less information about the first task but is intransigent to extract new information from the second task; and vice versa. Our results suggest that catastrophic forgetting could happen for CL with dissimilar tasks (under a precise similarity measurement) and that a well-tuned $\ell_2$-regularization can partially mitigate this issue by introducing intransigence.

Reasoning in a temporal knowledge graph (TKG) is a critical task for information retrieval and semantic search. It is particularly challenging when the TKG is updated frequently. The model has to adapt to changes in the TKG for efficient training and inference while preserving its performance on historical knowledge. Recent work approaches TKG completion (TKGC) by augmenting the encoder-decoder framework with a time-aware encoding function. However, naively fine-tuning the model at every time step using these methods does not address the problems of 1) catastrophic forgetting, 2) the model's inability to identify the change of facts (e.g., the change of the political affiliation and end of a marriage), and 3) the lack of training efficiency. To address these challenges, we present the Time-aware Incremental Embedding (TIE) framework, which combines TKG representation learning, experience replay, and temporal regularization. We introduce a set of metrics that characterizes the intransigence of the model and propose a constraint that associates the deleted facts with negative labels. Experimental results on Wikidata12k and YAGO11k datasets demonstrate that the proposed TIE framework reduces training time by about ten times and improves on the proposed metrics compared to vanilla full-batch training. It comes without a significant loss in performance for any traditional measures. Extensive ablation studies reveal performance trade-offs among different evaluation metrics, which is essential for decision-making around real-world TKG applications.

Incremental learning suffers from two challenging problems; forgetting of old knowledge and intransigence on learning new knowledge. Prediction by the model incrementally learned with a subset of the dataset are thus uncertain and the uncertainty accumulates through the tasks by knowledge transfer. To prevent overfitting to the uncertain knowledge, we propose to penalize confident fitting to the uncertain knowledge by the Maximum Entropy Regularizer (MER). Additionally, to reduce class imbalance and induce a self-paced curriculum on new classes, we exclude a few samples from the new classes in every mini-batch, which we call DropOut Sampling (DOS). We further rethink evaluation metrics for forgetting and intransigence in incremental learning by tracking each sample's confusion at the transition of a task since the existing metrics that compute the difference in accuracy are often misleading. We show that the proposed method, named 'MEDIC', outperforms the state-of-the-art incremental learning algorithms in accuracy, forgetting, and intransigence measured by both the existing and the proposed metrics by a large margin in extensive empirical validations on CIFAR100 and a popular subset of ImageNet dataset (TinyImageNet).

This paper examines Bayesian belief network inference using simulation as a method for computing the posterior probabilities of network variables. Specifically, it examines the use of a method described by Henrion, called logic sampling, and a method described by Pearl, called stochastic simulation. We first review the conditions under which logic sampling is computationally infeasible. Such cases motivated the development of the Pearl's stochastic simulation algorithm. We have found that this stochastic simulation algorithm, when applied to certain networks, leads to much slower than expected convergence to the true posterior probabilities. This behavior is a result of the tendency for local areas in the network to become fixed through many simulation cycles. The time required to obtain significant convergence can be made arbitrarily long by strengthening the probabilistic dependency between nodes. We propose the use of several forms of graph modification, such as graph pruning, arc reversal, and node reduction, in order to convert some networks into formats that are computationally more efficient for simulation.