interpretation
Beyond Global Divergences: A Local-Mass Perspective on Bayesian Inference
Xu, Hanli, He, Fengxiang, Moka, Sarat
Global objectives, such as KL divergence and ELBO, are widely used in Bayesian inference for measuring distributional discrepancy. This paper studies their local-mass behaviour that is not directly captured by such objectives. We introduce and use two mathematical tools: (1) Mass Index for recording the polynomial and logarithmic decay scales of local mass, and (2) regularised extended KL (RE-KL), a set-localised divergence that can be formulated in the presence of singular components. Mass Indices help characterise how Bayesian updating changes local mass: (1) power-log likelihood factors shift it explicitly, and (2) parameter-dependent supports, or their smooth softenings, may change the local scale through the amount of mass that remains near the parameter value. Using local RE-KL, we prove absolute, relative, and directional inequalities for comparing local small-ball masses under the two KL directions. Together, these results provide a local theoretical account of local mass behaviour. Experiments provide controlled illustrations of the local behaviour. Code is available at https://github.com/Forsythia0604/Local-Mass-Framework.
A Bregman Perspective on Classification and Regression Trees
Classification and Regression Trees (CART) constitute one of the most influential paradigms in statistical learning. Although a variety of impurity measures have been proposed for different statistical models, these criteria are typically introduced on a case-by-case basis and analyzed separately. In this paper, we study CART through the lens of Bregman divergences. This perspective places the classical least-squares criterion, Poisson deviance, Kullback-Leibler-type losses, and other impurity measures associated with exponential-family models within a common framework. As a result, key ingredients of the CART methodology -- including node representatives, impurity measures, and split selection rules -- can be expressed and analyzed through general properties of convex functions rather than through separate model-specific constructions. Beyond the algorithmic formulation, we investigate theoretical properties of Bregman-based CART procedures. In particular, we analyze how geometric properties of the generating convex function influence impurity reductions and stability of recursive partitions. We also establish consistency results within the proposed framework, providing a unified theoretical treatment for a broad family of CART type procedures. Our results provide a geometric interpretation of impurity-based tree construction and show that many classical CART impurity criteria admit a common interpretation within a Bregman framework.
Learning Interpretable Text Signals for Structured Responses
Jiang, Cixiao, Powell, Ben, MacKay, Niall
Textual data are often collected alongside structured response variables, but prediction and interpretation are commonly treated as separate tasks. This paper studies rating prediction as an initial case of interpretable text-response modelling, where the aim is to learn textual representations that are both semantically meaningful and aligned with an external response. We propose a joint non-negative matrix factorisation and binomial regression model, in which the document-topic representation is learned from both text reconstruction and rating prediction. Simulation experiments and a real-world review dataset show that the model can recover stable response-relevant textual signals and achieve competitive performance against linear and ridge regression baselines. The framework provides a practical step towards interpretable modelling of text-linked outcomes, with potential extensions to other response types beyond bounded ratings.
A Step Towards Inherently Interpretable Causal Machine Learning Models For Decision Support
The growing reliance on machine learning for decisions across sectors underscores the importance of model transparency and interpretability. Existing post-hoc explainability methods and inherently interpretable approaches shed light on model behavior, yet they primarily reveal how models exploit correlations to maximize performance in prediction tasks. However, many decisions require causal insights and the possibility of using models for what-if scenario evaluation. To address this, we propose the integration of causal machine learning with inherently interpretable models for cross-sectional data. We evaluate these methods in terms of predictive accuracy and interpretability. Our findings show that the proposed approach achieves competitive performance in prediction and what-if analysis while offering transparency on the system structure, causal relationships among variables, and the functional forms that connect them. This work contributes to research on causality, machine learning interpretability, and data-driven decision support by offering informed, transparent, and causally grounded decisions.
nvBench 2.0: Resolving Ambiguity in Text-to-Visualization through Stepwise Reasoning
Text-to-Visualization (Text2VIS) enables users to create visualizations from natural language queries, making data insights more accessible. However, Text2VIS faces challenges in interpreting ambiguous queries, as users often express their visualization needs in imprecise language. To address this challenge, we introduce nvBench 2.0, a new benchmark designed to evaluate Text2VIS systems in scenarios involving ambiguous queries.
GEM: Empowering MLLM for Grounded ECG Understanding with Time Series and Images
While recent multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have advanced automated ECG interpretation, they still face two key limitations: (1) insufficient multimodal synergy between ECG time series and ECG images, and (2) limited explainability in linking diagnoses to granular waveform evidence. We introduce GEM, the first MLLM unifying ECG time series, 12-lead ECG images and text for grounded and clinician-aligned ECG interpretation. GEM enables feature-grounded analysis, evidence-driven reasoning, and a clinician-like diagnostic process through three core innovations: a dual-encoder framework extracting complementary time series and image features, cross-modal alignment for effective multimodal understanding, and knowledge-guided instruction data generation for generating high-granularity grounding data (ECG-Grounding) linking diagnoses to measurable parameters (e.g., QRS/PR Intervals). Additionally, we propose the Grounded ECGUnderstanding task, a clinically motivated benchmark designed to comprehensively assess the MLLM's capability in grounded ECG understanding. Experimental results on both existing and our proposed benchmarks show GEM significantly improves predictive performance (CSN 7.4%), explainability (22.7%), and grounding (25.3%), making it a promising approach for real-world clinical applications.
NeuSymEA: Neuro-symbolic Entity Alignment via Variational Inference
Entity alignment (EA) aims to merge two knowledge graphs (KGs) by identifying equivalent entity pairs. Existing methods can be categorized into symbolic and neural models. Symbolic models, while precise, struggle with substructure heterogeneity and sparsity, whereas neural models, although effective, generally lack interpretability and cannot handle uncertainty. We propose NeuSymEA, a unified neuro-symbolic reasoning framework that combines the strengths of both methods to fully exploit the cross-KG structural pattern for robust entity alignment. NeuSymEA models the joint probability of all possible pairs' truth scores in a Markov random field, regulated by a set of rules, and optimizes it with the variational EM algorithm.
RvLLM: LLMRuntime Verification with Domain Knowledge
Large language models (LLMs) have emerged as a dominant AI paradigm due to their exceptional text understanding and generation capabilities. However, their tendency to generate inconsistent or erroneous outputs challenges their reliability, especially in high-stakes domains requiring accuracy and trustworthiness. Existing research primarily focuses on detecting and mitigating model misbehavior in general-purpose scenarios, often overlooking the potential of integrating domain-specific knowledge. In this work, we advance misbehavior detection by incorporating domain knowledge. The core idea is to design a general specification language that enables domain experts to customize domain-specific constraints in a lightweight and intuitive manner, supporting later runtime monitoring of LLM outputs.
The limits of interpretability in multiple linear regression
Sharma, Anand, Liu, Chen, Coslovich, Daniele, Ozawa, Misaki
Interpreting machine-learning models has attracted increasing attention, particularly in the physical sciences, where one often seeks to understand the underlying mechanisms rather than merely make predictions. Multiple linear regression is often regarded as an interpretable alternative to more complex models, such as deep neural networks, because its predictions are expressed as explicit weighted sums of input features. However, when input features are strongly correlated, namely in the presence of multicollinearity, the learned weights can exhibit large dataset-to-dataset fluctuations and oscillatory behavior across physically similar features, making their interpretation difficult or even impossible. Although the instability of the weights under multicollinearity is well known in statistics, its consequences for physical interpretation, in particular its connection to oscillatory weights across physically similar features, have not been systematically clarified. Here, we theoretically discuss the mechanism behind this loss of interpretability by analyzing the eigenmodes of the feature correlation matrix. We show that small-eigenvalue modes associated with multicollinearity amplify fluctuations in the weights and generate oscillatory patterns that do not necessarily reflect meaningful contributions. We test this theoretical picture numerically on physics datasets and show that Ridge regularization suppresses these unstable modes, although the resulting weights must still be interpreted with caution. We further confirm the generality of our findings beyond physics by analyzing a diverse collection of publicly available datasets. Our results clarify why, in the presence of multicollinearity, physical interpretation can remain difficult even for linear regression models.