Deep State Space Models (SSMs) reignite physics-grounded compute paradigms, as RNNs could natively be embodied into dynamical systems. This calls for dedicated learning algorithms obeying to core physical principles, with efficient techniques to simulate these systems and guide their design. We propose Recurrent Hamiltonian Echo Learning (RHEL), an algorithm which provably computes loss gradients as finite differences of physical trajectories of non-dissipative, Hamiltonian systems. In ML terms, RHEL only requires three "forward passes" irrespective of model size, without explicit Jacobian computation, nor incurring any variance in the gradient estimation. Motivated by the potential to implement our algorithm in non-digital physical systems, we first introduce RHEL in continuous time and demonstrate its formal equivalence with the continuous adjoint state method.

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification for time series prediction, with the goal of providing easy-to-use algorithms with formal guarantees. The algorithms we present build upon ideas from conformal prediction and control theory, are able to prospectively model conformal scores in an online setting, and adapt to the presence of systematic errors due to seasonality, trends, and general distribution shifts. Our theory both simplifies and strengthens existing analyses in online conformal prediction. Experiments on 4-week-ahead forecasting of statewide COVID-19 death counts in the U.S. show an improvement in coverage over the ensemble forecaster used in official CDC communications. We also run experiments on predicting electricity demand, market returns, and temperature using autoregressive, Theta, Prophet, and Transformer models.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

We propose two stochastic gradient MCMC methods for sampling from Bayesian posterior distributions defined on Riemann manifolds with a known geodesic flow, e.g.

We study gradient-based optimization methods obtained by directly discretizing a second-order ordinary differential equation (ODE) related to the continuous limit of Nesterov's accelerated gradient method. When the function is smooth enough, we show that acceleration can be achieved by a stable discretization of this ODE using standard Runge-Kutta integrators. Specifically, we prove that under Lipschitz-gradient, convexity and order-$(s+2)$ differentiability assumptions, the sequence of iterates generated by discretizing the proposed second-order ODE converges to the optimal solution at a rate of $\mathcal{O}({N^{-2\frac{s}{s+1}}})$, where $s$ is the order of the Runge-Kutta numerical integrator. Furthermore, we introduce a new local flatness condition on the objective, under which rates even faster than $\mathcal{O}(N^{-2})$ can be achieved with low-order integrators and only gradient information. Notably, this flatness condition is satisfied by several standard loss functions used in machine learning. We provide numerical experiments that verify the theoretical rates predicted by our results.

When the activation function of a network is analytic (e.g., sigmoid