We study the sample complexity of policy gradient for log-growth control -- the problem of learning, from observed state transitions, a feedback gain that optimally stabilizes a scalar linear system driven through a multiplicative-noise actuation channel. The objective $J(K) = \mathbb{E}[\log|1+BK|]$ is the top Lyapunov exponent of the closed loop. This problem carries a structural difficulty we call the cusp obstruction: the optimal gain $K^*$ always places the noise singularity $b_{\rm sing}(K) = -1/K$ in the interior of the support. At this singular optimum the policy gradient exists only as a Cauchy principal value, not as a Lebesgue integral, and the natural single-sample gradient estimator has infinite variance. Standard first-order stochastic-optimization analysis is thus inapplicable at the optimum, and merely smoothing the objective does not resolve the difficulty. The obstruction, however, has an exploitable symmetry: the Cauchy kernel is an odd function of the displacement from the moving pole, so pairing each observation with its reflection through the pole cancels the divergent part. This one cancellation simultaneously controls the population curvature, the gradient-estimator variance, and the bias incurred when the noise density is estimated. Combining these bounds with a closed-form single-transition gradient oracle, we prove that projected mini-batch policy gradient, initialized in any compact subset of the stabilizing region, attains total sample complexity $\tilde{O}(1/η)$ when the noise density is known and $\tilde{O}(η^{-(2s+1)/(2s)})$ when it must be estimated, for $C^s$ noise densities with $s \geq 2$.

We introduce Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization (MCCO) as a new paradigm for decision-making under uncertainty that combines aspects of multistage stochastic programming and conditional stochastic optimization. MCCO minimizes a nest of conditional expectations and nonlinear cost functions. It has numerous applications and arises, for example, in optimal stopping, linear-quadratic regulator problems, distributionally robust contextual bandits, as well as in problems involving dynamic risk measures. The naïve nested sampling approach for MCCO suffers from the curse of dimensionality familiar from scenario tree-based multistage stochastic programming, that is, its scenario complexity grows exponentially with the number of nests. We develop new multilevel Monte Carlo techniques for MCCO whose scenario complexity grows only polynomially with the desired accuracy.

Kernel-based quadrature rules are becoming important in machine learning and statistics, as they achieve super n convergence rates in numerical integration, and thus provide alternatives to Monte Carlo integration in challenging settings where integrands are expensive to evaluate or where integrands are high dimensional. These rules are based on the assumption that the integrand has a certain degree of smoothness, which is expressed as that the integrand belongs to a certain reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). However, this assumption can be violated in practice (e.g., when the integrand is a black box function), and no general theory has been established for the convergence of kernel quadratures in such misspecified settings. Our contribution is in proving that kernel quadratures can be consistent even when the integrand does not belong to the assumed RKHS, i.e., when the integrand is less smooth than assumed. Specifically, we derive convergence rates that depend on the (unknown) lesser smoothness of the integrand, where the degree of smoothness is expressed via powers of RKHSs or via Sobolev spaces.

Kernel-based quadrature rules are becoming important in machine learning and statistics, as they achieve super-$¥sqrt{n}$ convergence rates in numerical integration, and thus provide alternatives to Monte Carlo integration in challenging settings where integrands are expensive to evaluate or where integrands are high dimensional. These rules are based on the assumption that the integrand has a certain degree of smoothness, which is expressed as that the integrand belongs to a certain reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). However, this assumption can be violated in practice (e.g., when the integrand is a black box function), and no general theory has been established for the convergence of kernel quadratures in such misspecified settings. Our contribution is in proving that kernel quadratures can be consistent even when the integrand does not belong to the assumed RKHS, i.e., when the integrand is less smooth than assumed. Specifically, we derive convergence rates that depend on the (unknown) lesser smoothness of the integrand, where the degree of smoothness is expressed via powers of RKHSs or via Sobolev spaces.

Bayesian quadrature is a probabilistic, model-based approach to numerical integration, the estimation of intractable integrals, or expectations. Although Bayesian quadrature was popularised already in the 1980s, no systematic and comprehensive treatment has been published. The purpose of this survey is to fill this gap. We review the mathematical foundations of Bayesian quadrature from different points of view; present a systematic taxonomy for classifying different Bayesian quadrature methods along the three axes of modelling, inference, and sampling; collect general theoretical guarantees; and provide a controlled numerical study that explores and illustrates the effect of different choices along the axes of the taxonomy. We also provide a realistic assessment of practical challenges and limitations to application of Bayesian quadrature methods and include an up-to-date and nearly exhaustive bibliography that covers not only machine learning and statistics literature but all areas of mathematics and engineering in which Bayesian quadrature or equivalent methods have seen use.

Consequently, there are no theoretical guarantees so far for this class of methods.