Kernel-based quadrature rules are becoming important in machine learning and statistics, as they achieve super-$¥sqrt{n}$ convergence rates in numerical integration, and thus provide alternatives to Monte Carlo integration in challenging settings where integrands are expensive to evaluate or where integrands are high dimensional. These rules are based on the assumption that the integrand has a certain degree of smoothness, which is expressed as that the integrand belongs to a certain reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). However, this assumption can be violated in practice (e.g., when the integrand is a black box function), and no general theory has been established for the convergence of kernel quadratures in such misspecified settings. Our contribution is in proving that kernel quadratures can be consistent even when the integrand does not belong to the assumed RKHS, i.e., when the integrand is less smooth than assumed. Specifically, we derive convergence rates that depend on the (unknown) lesser smoothness of the integrand, where the degree of smoothness is expressed via powers of RKHSs or via Sobolev spaces.

Bayesian quadrature is a probabilistic, model-based approach to numerical integration, the estimation of intractable integrals, or expectations. Although Bayesian quadrature was popularised already in the 1980s, no systematic and comprehensive treatment has been published. The purpose of this survey is to fill this gap. We review the mathematical foundations of Bayesian quadrature from different points of view; present a systematic taxonomy for classifying different Bayesian quadrature methods along the three axes of modelling, inference, and sampling; collect general theoretical guarantees; and provide a controlled numerical study that explores and illustrates the effect of different choices along the axes of the taxonomy. We also provide a realistic assessment of practical challenges and limitations to application of Bayesian quadrature methods and include an up-to-date and nearly exhaustive bibliography that covers not only machine learning and statistics literature but all areas of mathematics and engineering in which Bayesian quadrature or equivalent methods have seen use.

Consequently, there are no theoretical guarantees so far for this class of methods.

Driven by several successful applications such as in stochastic gradient descent or in Bayesian computation, control variates have become a major tool for Monte Carlo integration. However, standard methods do not allow the distribution of the particles to evolve during the algorithm, as is the case in sequential simulation methods. Within the standard adaptive importance sampling framework, a simple weighted least squares approach is proposed to improve the procedure with control variates. The procedure takes the form of a quadrature rule with adapted quadrature weights to reflect the information brought in by the control variates. The quadrature points and weights do not depend on the integrand, a computational advantage in case of multiple integrands. Moreover, the target density needs to be known only up to a multiplicative constant. Our main result is a non-asymptotic bound on the probabilistic error of the procedure. The bound proves that for improving the estimate's accuracy, the benefits from adaptive importance sampling and control variates can be combined. The good behavior of the method is illustrated empirically on synthetic examples and real-world data for Bayesian linear regression.

Kernel-based quadrature rules are becoming important in machine learning and statistics, as they achieve super-n convergence rates in numerical integration, and thus provide alternatives to Monte Carlo integration in challenging settings where integrands are expensive to evaluate or where integrands are high dimensional. These rules are based on the assumption that the integrand has a certain degree of smoothness, which is expressed as that the integrand belongs to a certain reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). However, this assumption can be violated in practice (e.g., when the integrand is a black box function), and no general theory has been established for the convergence of kernel quadratures in such misspecified settings. Our contribution is in proving that kernel quadratures can be consistent even when the integrand does not belong to the assumed RKHS, i.e., when the integrand is less smooth than assumed. Specifically, we derive convergence rates that depend on the (unknown) lesser smoothness of the integrand, where the degree of smoothness is expressed via powers of RKHSs or via Sobolev spaces.

Mutual information (MI) is one of the most general ways to measure relationships between random variables, but estimating this quantity for complex systems is challenging. Denoising diffusion models have recently set a new bar for density estimation, so it is natural to consider whether these methods could also be used to improve MI estimation. Using the recently introduced information-theoretic formulation of denoising diffusion models, we show the diffusion models can be used in a straightforward way to estimate MI. In particular, the MI corresponds to half the gap in the Minimum Mean Square Error (MMSE) between conditional and unconditional diffusion, integrated over all Signal-to-Noise-Ratios (SNRs) in the noising process. Our approach not only passes self-consistency tests but also outperforms traditional and score-based diffusion MI estimators. Furthermore, our method leverages adaptive importance sampling to achieve scalable MI estimation, while maintaining strong performance even when the MI is high.