The agency that oversees prediction markets has investigated Polymarket trades on Biden pardons and the Iran war--and even more potential insider trading at Google, documents obtained by WIRED show. The US government launched at least three previously unreported investigations into trading on the prediction market Polymarket, according to documents obtained by WIRED through a Freedom of Information Act request. Voting records from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that regulates prediction markets, shed new light on how the government approaches these investigations. In early May, CFTC chairman Michael Selig approved an order allowing the agency's enforcement division to launch a private investigation into potential insider trading on Polymarket event contracts related to pardons issued by former president Joseph Biden. The order granted permission to take testimony, obtain subpoenas, administer oaths, and require the production of documents in the course of the investigation.

This week on, we dig into the latest prediction market buzz, Flock's AI-powered police search tool, and how tech bros don't know how to talk about "rouge" AI agents This week, senior writer Kate Knibbs joins Brian Barrett, Zoë Schiffer, and Leah Feiger to discuss the two incidents that have been making noise in prediction markets: George Santos getting lifetime ban from Kalshi and a Google engineer's Polymarket insider-trading case. Plus, reporters reverse-engineered Flock's AI-powered person-search tool and spoke to experts about the accuracy of such technology, and the hosts unpack the online meltdown over how to talk about "rogue" AI agents. George Santos Just Got Hit With Kalshi's First-Ever Lifetime Ban This Is Flock's AI Search Tool for Cops What We Still Don't Know About OpenAI's Hugging Face Hack Write to us at [email protected] . You can always listen to this week's podcast through the audio player on this page, but if you want to subscribe for free to get every episode, here's how: If you're on an iPhone or iPad, open the app called Podcasts, or just tap this link . It's so nice to see you guys. Former US representative George Santos was the first person to be given a lifetime ban from Kalshi, and a Google engineer was accused of insider trading at Polymarket. We'll get into why both of these cases show that there are still plenty of blurry rules when it comes to prediction markets. This week, WIRED reporters were able to recreate Flock's AI powered search tool, the same one that has a track record of being misused by police officers. We're going to break down how it works, and whether the backlash against Flock cameras might have reached its boiling point. Do you guys remember George Santos?

Michele Spagnuolo was arrested for alleged insider trading on Polymarket, but the Switzerland-based engineer says he was simply gambling--activity that is beyond the reach of US commodities law. Michele Spagnuolo, the Google engineer arrested in May by US authorities for alleged insider trading on Polymarket, is making a new bold bet. On Wednesday, his legal team filed a motion to dismiss the charges against him. Spagnuolo isn't outright denying that he made money using internal information from Google. Instead, his legal team says that the wagers were not financial instruments subject to regulation by the United States' Commodities Exchange Act but rather good old-fashioned international betting that the US has no authority over.

From threats to the safety of poll workers to voters who can't distinguish between odds and results, prediction markets are already scrambling the political process. When Jim Allen, the elections director for Delaware County, Pennsylvania, recently ran a training session for poll workers, he began a conversation about a topic he'd never previously had to address during training: prediction markets . "There was one person who stood up, and they said, 'Well, what if we just want to make a minor bet on what turnout will be, that'll keep things interesting?' And we said: 'No, this is all bad,'" Allen, who oversees 383 precincts, recounts. As a result, Allen and the board of elections in Delaware County amended the oaths signed by people involved in elections to include "an affirmation that the workers have no direct or indirect interests in any bets, wagers, or prediction markets."

World's largest chipmaker does not rule out price rises as costs increase The world's largest chipmaker has told the BBC that inflation is pushing up the cost of doing business, and did not rule out price rises. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) makes the most advanced chips designed by companies such as Nvidia, AMD and Apple, so any increase in pricing could ripple through to the cost of AI infrastructure, and potentially over time, the prices customers pay for their electronic devices. However, the firm's chief financial officer, Wendell Huang, said it would not introduce sudden fourfold, fivefold price rises. We reflect our value, he said, pointing to its technology leadership and manufacturing excellence. In an exclusive and wide-ranging interview, Huang also denied that the AI boom was a bubble and that the firm's global expansion was due to geopolitical pressure.

CFTC chairman Michael Selig sat down with WIRED to discuss how the agency scours Polymarket and other prediction markets for illegal activity. For most of the past year, it looked like prediction markets had kicked off a new golden age of fraud. On Polymarket, traders raked in fortunes from suspiciously timed bets on geopolitical events like the raid on Venezuela and the Iran War. It wasn't clear whether the US government would bother pursuing some of the most flagrant bad actors, since Polymarket's crypto-based platform was technically offshore and not regulated or licensed within the country. Now, however, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which oversees prediction markets, wants you to know that it's watching very, very closely.

Aleksandra Mendoza, aka Alorah Ziva, alleges that the 20-year-old influencer injected her with drugs on a livestream and had nonconsensual sex with her while she was underage. An 18-year-old woman who promotes herself as the "#1 female looksmaxxer" is suing the highly controversial streamer Braden Eric Peters, aka Clavicular, for fraud, battery, and alleged sexual assault. In the suit, which was filed in Miami-Dade County court and obtained by WIRED, Aleksandra Mendoza, who goes by the name @zahloria, or Alorah Ziva, on Instagram, alleges that she first encountered Peters in May 2025, when she was just 16 years old. According to the complaint, Peters promised Mendoza he could make her "the female face of looksmaxxing," the online trend of using surgery or drugs to enhance one's facial features. Eager to grow her social media following, Mendoza agreed to make four looksmaxxing videos for Peters in exchange for a $1,000 payment, court documents say.

Mark Moran, an underdog Senate candidate from Virginia, claims he wanted to get caught violating the prediction market platform's rules. Kalshi announced Wednesday that it had taken action against three US politicians for violating the prediction market platform's rules on insider trading. One of the candidates, Mark Moran, a former investment banker and contestant on the reality dating show, is running a long-shot campaign for US Senate in Virginia against incumbent Mark Warner. According to Moran, getting caught was actually his plan all along: "I bet $100 on myself, not denying that, I did do it," he tells WIRED. "I wanted to see if they would enforce it."

A new executive order seen by WIRED prohibits New York state employees from using insider knowledge to enrich themselves with prediction market bets. New York has banned state employees from using insider information to trade on prediction markets . In an executive order signed today and viewed by WIRED, Governor Kathy Hochul forbade the state's government workforce from using "any nonpublic information obtained in the course of their official duties" to participate on prediction market platforms, or to help others profit using those services. "Getting rich by betting on inside information is corruption, plain and simple," Hochul said in a statement provided to WIRED. "Our actions will ensure that public servants work for the people they represent, not their own personal enrichment. While Donald Trump and DC Republicans turn a blind eye to the ethical Wild West they've created, New York is stepping up to lead by example and stamp out insider trading."

As the prediction market boom continues, backlash is growing, too, with Arizona filing criminal charges against Kalshi and public outcry after Polymarket traders threatened a journalist. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour posted a video on Wednesday of six men decked out in business casual doing push-ups on the sidewalk. "This is how Kalshi Q1 board meeting ended," he wrote on X. The board members are laughing and smiling in the video after their impromptu cardio session, and the mood is jubilant. The next day, it became clear that the team had ample reason to celebrate: Kalshi had just raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation, making the company worth on paper roughly double what it was only a few months ago.