How dangerous is the US standoff with Venezuela? Is the US economy strong heading into 2026? As the United States economy heads into 2026, the report card emerging on its performance is complicated. By many measures, the world's largest economy appears to be in a strong position. After a tumultuous year marked by President Donald Trump's return to the White House and his swing towards tariffs and protectionism, recent growth has outpaced the expectations of most analysts.

The widespread adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is likely to displace people from jobs in a similar way seen during the Industrial Revolution, the governor of the Bank of England has said. Andrew Bailey said the UK needed to have the training, education, [and] skills in place so workers could shift into jobs that use AI. He told the BBC Radio 4's Today programme people looking for a job would find securing employment a lot easier if they had such skills. However, he warned that there was an issue with younger, inexperienced professionals finding it difficult to secure entry-level roles due to AI. We do have to think about, what is it doing to the pipeline of people?

Would artificial intelligence (AI) cut interest rates or adopt conservative monetary policy? Would it deregulate or opt for a more controlled economy? As AI use by economic policymakers, academics, and market participants grows exponentially, it is becoming critical to understand AI preferences over economic policy. However, these preferences are not yet systematically evaluated and remain a black box. This paper makes a conjoint experiment on leading large language models (LLMs) from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, asking them to evaluate economic policy under multi-factor constraints. The results are remarkably consistent across models: most LLMs exhibit a strong preference for high growth, low unemployment, and low inequality over traditional macroeconomic concerns such as low inflation and low public debt. Scenario-specific experiments show that LLMs are sensitive to context but still display strong preferences for low unemployment and low inequality even in monetary-policy settings. Numerical sensitivity tests reveal intuitive responses to quantitative changes but also uncover non-linear patterns such as loss aversion.

We develop a transparent and fully auditable LLM-based pipeline for macro-financial stress testing, combining structured prompting with optional retrieval of country fundamentals and news. The system generates machine-readable macroeconomic scenarios for the G7, which cover GDP growth, inflation, and policy rates, and are translated into portfolio losses through a factor-based mapping that enables Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall assessment relative to classical econometric baselines. Across models, countries, and retrieval settings, the LLMs produce coherent and country-specific stress narratives, yielding stable tail-risk amplification with limited sensitivity to retrieval choices. Comprehensive plausibility checks, scenario diagnostics, and ANOVA-based variance decomposition show that risk variation is driven primarily by portfolio composition and prompt design rather than by the retrieval mechanism. The pipeline incorporates snapshotting, deterministic modes, and hash-verified artifacts to ensure reproducibility and auditability. Overall, the results demonstrate that LLM-generated macro scenarios, when paired with transparent structure and rigorous validation, can provide a scalable and interpretable complement to traditional stress-testing frameworks.

Global growth is holding up better than expected as an artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom helps offset some of the shock from United States tariff hikes, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The Paris-based organisation, however, warned on Tuesday that global growth was vulnerable to any new outbreak of trade tensions, while investor optimism about AI could trigger a stock market correction if expectations are not met. It predicted a rebound to 3.1 percent in 2027. OECD head Mathias Cormann said the trade shocks triggered by US President Donald Trump's tariff hikes had so far proved relatively mild, but added their costs were likely to rise. "The full effects of those higher tariffs since the start of the year will become clearer as firms run down the inventories that they built up," he told a press conference.

Self-evaluation is increasingly central to language model training, underpinning techniques from Constitutional AI to self-refinement. We investigate whether coupling self-evaluation to reward signals creates incentives for wireheading, where agents manipulate the measurement process rather than optimizing the task. We first formalize conditions under which reward-channel control strictly dominates task-focused behavior in partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). We then test these predictions empirically across two models (Llama-3.1-8B and Mistral-7B) and three tasks. We find that when self-grades determine rewards, models exhibit substantial grade inflation without corresponding accuracy gains, particularly on ambiguous tasks like summarization. While decoupling self-grades from the reward signal mitigates this inflation, models may still display lesser (but significant) overconfidence. Our results suggest that within current model scales, separating evaluation from reward removes immediate wireheading incentives. However, we caution that strictly decoupling rewards may not suffice for situationally aware models, which could learn to inflate grades for instrumental reasons (such as influencing deployment decisions) even absent direct reward coupling.

The value of data is often associated with the learning performance (e.g.,

The value of data is often associated with the learning performance (e.g.,

We evaluate whether persona-based prompting improves Large Language Model (LLM) performance on macroeconomic forecasting tasks. Using 2,368 economics-related personas from the PersonaHub corpus, we prompt GPT-4o to replicate the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters across 50 quarterly rounds (2013-2025). We compare the persona-prompted forecasts against the human experts panel, across four target variables (HICP, core HICP, GDP growth, unemployment) and four forecast horizons. We also compare the results against 100 baseline forecasts without persona descriptions to isolate its effect. We report two main findings. Firstly, GPT-4o and human forecasters achieve remarkably similar accuracy levels, with differences that are statistically significant yet practically modest. Our out-of-sample evaluation on 2024-2025 data demonstrates that GPT-4o can maintain competitive forecasting performance on unseen events, though with notable differences compared to the in-sample period. Secondly, our ablation experiment reveals no measurable forecasting advantage from persona descriptions, suggesting these prompt components can be omitted to reduce computational costs without sacrificing accuracy. Our results provide evidence that GPT-4o can achieve competitive forecasting accuracy even on out-of-sample macroeconomic events, if provided with relevant context data, while revealing that diverse prompts produce remarkably homogeneous forecasts compared to human panels.