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Modeling sparse count data, which arise across numerous scientific fields, presents significant statistical challenges. This chapter addresses these challenges in the context of infectious disease prediction, with a focus on predicting outbreaks in geographic regions that have historically reported zero cases. To this end, we present the detailed computational framework and experimental application of the Poisson Hierarchical Indian Buffet Process (PHIBP), with demonstrated success in handling sparse count data in microbiome and ecological studies. The PHIBP's architecture, grounded in the concept of absolute abundance, systematically borrows statistical strength from related regions and circumvents the known sensitivities of relative-rate methods to zero counts. Through a series of experiments on infectious disease data, we show that this principled approach provides a robust foundation for generating coherent predictive distributions and for the effective use of comparative measures such as alpha and beta diversity. The chapter's emphasis on algorithmic implementation and experimental results confirms that this unified framework delivers both accurate outbreak predictions and meaningful epidemiological insights in data-sparse settings.

This review explores the integration of Artificial Intelligence into Horizon Scanning, focusing on identifying and responding to emerging threats and opportunities linked to Infectious Diseases. We examine how AI tools can enhance signal detection, data monitoring, scenario analysis, and decision support. We also address the risks associated with AI adoption and propose strategies for effective implementation and governance. The findings contribute to the growing body of Foresight literature by demonstrating the potential and limitations of AI in Public Health preparedness.

Despite the end of the pandemic phase and declining mortality rates, COVID-19 remains a significant global health concern. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) COVID-19 Dashboard, the disease exhibited a peak weekly test positivity of 18% in the U.S. in 2024. Although the recorded hospitalization rate of 4.8 per 10,000 population on August 10, 2024, may appear comparatively low, it underscores the continuing impact of the disease. According to communications received from the CDC, hospitals are mandated to report COVID-19 hospitalizations again starting in mid-November 2024, indicating the resurgence of the disease. The COVID-19 pandemic strained healthcare resources and overloaded hospitals, exacerbating the dramatic loss of human life. SARS-CoV-2 spreads rapidly, causing severe complications due to its high reproduction rate, the ability to spread via asymptomatic individuals, the prevalence of close-contact settings in densely populated areas, continual mutation into more transmissible variants, and the inconsistent application of preventive public health measures across the U.S. As a result, the demand for travel nurses surged during the pandemic, aligning with shifts in COVID-19 infection hotspots (Cole et al. 2021, Longyear et al. 2020). This was partially a geospatial problem related to the timely allocation of limited human and medical resources. Reliable geographic forecasting of COVID-19 hospital admissions could have alleviated this burden through policy-relevant decision-making and proactive allocation of resources in regional hotspots (i.e.

Accurate epidemic forecasting is crucial for effective disease control and prevention. Traditional compartmental models often struggle to estimate temporally and spatially varying epidemiological parameters, while deep learning models typically overlook disease transmission dynamics and lack interpretability in the epidemiological context. To address these limitations, we propose a novel Causal Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Network (CSTGNN), a hybrid framework that integrates a Spatio-Contact SIR model with Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to capture the spatiotemporal propagation of epidemics. Inter-regional human mobility exhibits continuous and smooth spatiotemporal patterns, leading to adjacent graph structures that share underlying mobility dynamics. To model these dynamics, we employ an adaptive static connectivity graph to represent the stable components of human mobility and utilize a temporal dynamics model to capture fluctuations within these patterns. By integrating the adaptive static connectivity graph with the temporal dynamics graph, we construct a dynamic graph that encapsulates the comprehensive properties of human mobility networks. Additionally, to capture temporal trends and variations in infectious disease spread, we introduce a temporal decomposition model to handle temporal dependence. This model is then integrated with a dynamic graph convolutional network for epidemic forecasting. We validate our model using real-world datasets at the provincial level in China and the state level in Germany. Extensive studies demonstrate that our method effectively models the spatiotemporal dynamics of infectious diseases, providing a valuable tool for forecasting and intervention strategies. Furthermore, analysis of the learned parameters offers insights into disease transmission mechanisms, enhancing the interpretability and practical applicability of our model.

In this work, we integrate the predictive capabilities of compartmental disease dynamics models with machine learning ability to analyze complex, high-dimensional data and uncover patterns that conventional models may overlook. Specifically, we present a proof of concept demonstrating the application of data-driven methods and deep neural networks to a recently introduced SIR-type model with social features, including a saturated incidence rate, to improve epidemic prediction and forecasting. Our results show that a robust data augmentation strategy trough suitable data-driven models can improve the reliability of Feed-Forward Neural Networks (FNNs) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Networks (NARs), making them viable alternatives to Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs). This approach enhances the ability to handle nonlinear dynamics and offers scalable, data-driven solutions for epidemic forecasting, prioritizing predictive accuracy over the constraints of physics-based models. Numerical simulations of the post-lockdown phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy and Spain validate our methodology.

The accurate prediction of B-cell epitopes is critical for guiding vaccine development against infectious diseases, including SARS and COVID-19. This study explores the use of a deep neural network (DNN) model to predict B-cell epitopes for SARS-CoVandSARS-CoV-2,leveraging a dataset that incorporates essential protein and peptide features. Traditional sequence-based methods often struggle with large, complex datasets, but deep learning offers promising improvements in predictive accuracy. Our model employs regularization techniques, such as dropout and early stopping, to enhance generalization, while also analyzing key features, including isoelectric point and aromaticity, that influence epitope recognition. Results indicate an overall accuracy of 82% in predicting COVID-19 negative and positive cases, with room for improvement in detecting positive samples. This research demonstrates the applicability of deep learning in epitope mapping, suggesting that such approaches can enhance the speed and precision of vaccine design for emerging pathogens. Future work could incorporate structural data and diverse viral strains to further refine prediction capabilities.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become essential in modern healthcare, with large language models (LLMs) offering promising advances in clinical decision-making. Traditional model-based approaches, including those leveraging in-context demonstrations and those with specialized medical fine-tuning, have demonstrated strong performance in medical language processing but struggle with real-time adaptability, multi-step reasoning, and handling complex medical tasks. Agent-based AI systems address these limitations by incorporating reasoning traces, tool selection based on context, knowledge retrieval, and both short- and long-term memory. These additional features enable the medical AI agent to handle complex medical scenarios where decision-making should be built on real-time interaction with the environment. Therefore, unlike conventional model-based approaches that treat medical queries as isolated questions, medical AI agents approach them as complex tasks and behave more like human doctors. In this paper, we study the choice of the backbone LLM for medical AI agents, which is the foundation for the agent's overall reasoning and action generation. In particular, we consider the emergent o1 model and examine its impact on agents' reasoning, tool-use adaptability, and real-time information retrieval across diverse clinical scenarios, including high-stakes settings such as intensive care units (ICUs). Our findings demonstrate o1's ability to enhance diagnostic accuracy and consistency, paving the way for smarter, more responsive AI tools that support better patient outcomes and decision-making efficacy in clinical practice.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and infectious diseases prediction have recently experienced a common development and advancement. Machine learning (ML) apparition, along with deep learning (DL) emergence, extended many approaches against diseases apparition and their spread. And despite their outstanding results in predicting infectious diseases, conflicts appeared regarding the types of data used and how they can be studied, analyzed, and exploited using various emerging methods. This has led to some ongoing discussions in the field. This research aims not only to provide an overview of what has been accomplished, but also to highlight the difficulties related to the types of data used, and the learning methods applied for each research objective. It categorizes these contributions into three areas: predictions using Public Health Data to prevent the spread of a transmissible disease within a region; predictions using Patients' Medical Data to detect whether a person is infected by a transmissible disease; and predictions using both Public and patient medical data to estimate the extent of disease spread in a population. The paper also critically assesses the potential of AI and outlines its limitations in infectious disease management.

Agent-based models have proven to be useful tools in supporting decision-making processes in different application domains. The advent of modern computers and supercomputers has enabled these bottom-up approaches to realistically model human mobility and contact behavior. The COVID-19 pandemic showcased the urgent need for detailed and informative models that can answer research questions on transmission dynamics. We present a sophisticated agent-based model to simulate the spread of respiratory diseases. The model is highly modularized and can be used on various scales, from a small collection of buildings up to cities or countries. Although not being the focus of this paper, the model has undergone performance engineering on a single core and provides an efficient intra- and inter-simulation parallelization for time-critical decision-making processes. In order to allow answering research questions on individual level resolution, nonpharmaceutical intervention strategies such as face masks or venue closures can be implemented for particular locations or agents. In particular, we allow for sophisticated testing and isolation strategies to study the effects of minimal-invasive infectious disease mitigation. With realistic human mobility patterns for the region of Brunswick, Germany, we study the effects of different interventions between March 1st and May 30, 2021 in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Our analyses suggest that symptom-independent testing has limited impact on the mitigation of disease dynamics if the dark figure in symptomatic cases is high. Furthermore, we found that quarantine length is more important than quarantine efficiency but that, with sufficient symptomatic control, also short quarantines can have a substantial effect.