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Hypervolume Maximization: A Geometric View of Pareto Set Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

This paper presents a novel approach to multiobjective algorithms aimed at modeling the Pareto set using neural networks. Whereas previous methods mainly focused on identifying a finite number of solutions, our approach allows for the direct modeling of the entire Pareto set. Furthermore, we establish an equivalence between learning the complete Pareto set and maximizing the associated hypervolume, which enables the convergence analysis of hypervolume (as a new metric) for Pareto set learning. Specifically, our new analysis framework reveals the connection between the learned Pareto solution and its representation in a polar coordinate system. We evaluate our proposed approach on various benchmark problems and real-world problems, and the encouraging results make it a potentially viable alternative to existing multiobjective algorithms.



Assessing the informative value of macroeconomic indicators for public health forecasting

Chakraborty, Shome, Khan, Fardil, Ghosal, Soutik

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Macroeconomic conditions influence the environments in which health systems operate, yet their value as leading signals of health system capacity has not been systematically evaluated. In this study, we examine whether selected macroeconomic indicators contain predictive information for several capacity-related public health targets, including employment in the health and social assistance workforce, new business applications in the sector, and health care construction spending. Using monthly U.S. time series data, we evaluate multiple forecasting approaches, including neural network models with different optimization strategies, generalized additive models, random forests, and time series models with exogenous macroeconomic indicators, under alternative model fitting designs. Across evaluation settings, we find that macroeconomic indicators provide a consistent and reproducible predictive signal for some public health targets, particularly workforce and infrastructure measures, while other targets exhibit weaker or less stable predictability. Models emphasizing stability and implicit regularization tend to perform more reliably during periods of economic volatility. These findings suggest that macroeconomic indicators may serve as useful upstream signals for digital public health monitoring, while underscoring the need for careful model selection and validation when translating economic trends into health system forecasting tools.


Demystifying the trend of the healthcare index: Is historical price a key driver?

Sadhukhan, Payel, Gupta, Samrat, Ghosh, Subhasis, Chakraborty, Tanujit

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Healthcare sector indices consolidate the economic health of pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and healthcare service firms. The short-term movements in these indices are closely intertwined with capital allocation decisions affecting research and development investment, drug availability, and long-term health outcomes. This research investigates whether historical open-high-low-close (OHLC) index data contain sufficient information for predicting the directional movement of the opening index on the subsequent trading day. The problem is formulated as a supervised classification task involving a one-step-ahead rolling window. A diverse feature set is constructed, comprising original prices, volatility-based technical indicators, and a novel class of nowcasting features derived from mutual OHLC ratios. The framework is evaluated on data from healthcare indices in the U.S. and Indian markets over a five-year period spanning multiple economic phases, including the COVID-19 pandemic. The results demonstrate robust predictive performance, with accuracy exceeding 0.8 and Matthews correlation coefficients above 0.6. Notably, the proposed nowcasting features have emerged as a key determinant of the market movement. We have employed the Shapley-based explainability paradigm to further elucidate the contribution of the features: outcomes reveal the dominant role of the nowcasting features, followed by a more moderate contribution of original prices. This research offers a societal utility: the proposed features and model for short-term forecasting of healthcare indices can reduce information asymmetry and support a more stable and equitable health economy.