While both classical and neural network classifiers can achieve high accuracy, they fall short on offering uncertainty bounds on their predictions, making them unfit for safety-critical applications. Existing kernel-based classifiers that provide such bounds scale with $\mathcal O (n^{\sim3})$ in time, making them computationally intractable for large datasets. To address this, we propose a novel, computationally efficient classification algorithm based on the Nadaraya-Watson estimator, for whose estimates we derive frequentist uncertainty intervals. We evaluate our classifier on synthetically generated data and on electrocardiographic heartbeat signals from the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia database. We show that the method achieves competitive accuracy $>$\SI{96}{\percent} at $\mathcal O(n)$ and $\mathcal O(\log n)$ operations, while providing actionable uncertainty bounds. These bounds can, e.g., aid in flagging low-confidence predictions, making them suitable for real-time settings with resource constraints, such as diagnostic monitoring or implantable devices.

Multivariate Hawkes processes are a widely used class of self-exciting point processes, but maximum likelihood estimation naively scales as $O(N^2)$ in the number of events. The canonical linear exponential Hawkes process admits a faster $O(N)$ recurrence, but prior work evaluates this recurrence sequentially, without exploiting parallelization on modern GPUs. We show that the Hawkes process intensity can be expressed as a product of sparse transition matrices admitting a linear-time associative multiply, enabling computation via a parallel prefix scan. This yields a simple yet massively parallelizable algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of linear exponential Hawkes processes. Our method reduces the computational complexity to approximately $O(N/P)$ with $P$ parallel processors, and naturally yields a batching scheme to maintain constant memory usage, avoiding GPU memory constraints. Importantly, it computes the exact likelihood without any additional assumptions or approximations, preserving the simplicity and interpretability of the model. We demonstrate orders-of-magnitude speedups on simulated and real datasets, scaling to thousands of nodes and tens of millions of events, substantially beyond scales reported in prior work. We provide an open-source PyTorch library implementing our optimizations.

Clustering in high-dimensional settings with severe feature noise remains challenging, especially when only a small subset of dimensions is informative and the final number of clusters is not specified in advance. In such regimes, partition recovery, feature relevance learning, and structural adaptation are tightly coupled, and standard likelihood-based methods can become unstable or overly sensitive to noisy dimensions. We propose DIVI, a data-informed variational clustering framework that combines global feature gating with split-based adaptive structure growth. DIVI uses informative prior initialization to stabilize optimization, learns feature relevance in a differentiable manner, and expands model complexity only when local diagnostics indicate underfit. Beyond clustering performance, we also examine runtime scalability and parameter sensitivity in order to clarify the computational and practical behavior of the framework. Empirically, we find that DIVI performs competitively under severe feature noise, remains computationally feasible, and yields interpretable feature-gating behavior, while also exhibiting conservative growth and identifiable failure regimes in challenging settings. Overall, DIVI is best viewed as a practical variational clustering framework for noisy high-dimensional data rather than as a fully Bayesian generative solution.

Approaches to bivariate causal discovery based on the minimum description length (MDL) principle approximate the (uncomputable) Kolmogorov complexity of the models in each causal direction, selecting the one with the lower total complexity. The premise is that nature's mechanisms are simpler in their true causal order. Inherently, the description length (complexity) in each direction includes the description of the cause variable and that of the causal mechanism. In this work, we argue that current state-of-the-art MDL-based methods do not correctly address the problem of estimating the description length of the cause variable, effectively leaving the decision to the description length of the causal mechanism. Based on rate-distortion theory, we propose a new way to measure the description length of the cause, corresponding to the minimum rate required to achieve a distortion level representative of the underlying distribution. This distortion level is deduced using rules from histogram-based density estimation, while the rate is computed using the related concept of information dimension, based on an asymptotic approximation. Combining it with a traditional approach for the causal mechanism, we introduce a new bivariate causal discovery method, termed rate-distortion MDL (RDMDL). We show experimentally that RDMDL achieves competitive performance on the Tübingen dataset. All the code and experiments are publicly available at github.com/tiagobrogueira/Causal-Discovery-In-Exchangeable-Data.

Its low-rank QTT structure arises from intrinsic spectral smoothness in continuous models, or from spectral energy concentration as the number of components D grows in discrete models. We demonstrate this on weighted sums of Bernoulli and lognormal random variables. In the latter, the approach reaches high-resolution discretizations of N = 230 frequency modes on standard hardware, far beyond the N =224 ceiling of dense implementations. These compressed representations enable efficient computation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), supporting applications in quantitative finance and beyond. I. INTRODUCTION Weighted sums of independent random variables constitute a basic probabilistic model, describing macroscopic behavior arising from the aggregation of microscopic stochastic components. These models arise in a wide range of applications. Their probability distribution generally lacks a closed-form expression, and their evaluation involves multidimensional convolution integrals that are susceptible to the curse of dimensionality. Consequently, evaluating these models relies on specializednumericalmethods. Whilethese methods have been adapted for discrete settings [18, 19], they are frequently hampered by persistent Gibbs oscillations, which arise from distributional discontinuities and preclude uniform convergence [20, 21]. No existing method simultaneously achieves an accurate approximation of the exact, fully non-Gaussian target distribution while remaining scalable to larger, practically relevant system sizes. In this work, we introduce a new algorithm that combines the Fourier spectral method with tensor-network techniques.

Weight-Decomposed Low-Rank Adaptation (DoRA) extends LoRA by decoupling weight magnitude from direction, but its forward pass requires the row-wise norm of W + sBA, a computation that every major framework we surveyed implements by materializing the dense [d_out, d_in] product BA. At d_in = 8192 and rank r = 384, a single module's norm requires about 512 MB of transient working memory in bf16, making high-rank DoRA costly and often infeasible on common single-GPU setups once hundreds of adapted modules and checkpointing are involved. We present two systems contributions. A factored norm decomposes the squared norm into base, cross, and Gram terms computable through O(d_out r + r^2) intermediates, eliminating the dense product. Fused Triton kernels collapse the four-kernel DoRA composition into a single pass, reducing memory traffic by about 4x and using a numerically stable form that avoids catastrophic cancellation in the near-unity rescaling regime where magnitude scales concentrate in practice. Across six 8-32B vision-language models (VLMs) on three NVIDIA GPUs (RTX 6000 PRO, H200, B200) at r = 384 in bf16, the fused implementation is 1.5-2.0x faster than Hugging Face PEFT's DoRA implementation for inference and 1.5-1.9x faster for gradient computation (optimizer step excluded), with up to 7 GB lower peak VRAM. Microbenchmarks on six GPUs spanning four architecture generations (L40S, A100, RTX 6000 PRO, H200, B200, B300) confirm 1.5-2.7x compose-kernel speedup. Final-logit cosine similarity exceeds 0.9999 across all model/GPU pairs, and multi-seed training curves match within 7.1 x 10^-4 mean per-step loss delta over 2000 steps.

This paper proposes a new formulation of functional Gaussian Process regression in manifolds, based on an Empirical Bayes approach, in the spatiotemporal random field context. We apply the machinery of tight Gaussian measures in separable Hilbert spaces, exploiting the invariance property of covariance kernels under the group of isometries of the manifold. The identification of these measures with infinite-product Gaussian measures is then obtained via the eigenfunctions of the Laplace-Beltrami operator on the manifold. The involved time-varying angular spectra constitute the key tool for dimension reduction in the implementation of this regression approach, adopting a suitable truncation scheme depending on the functional sample size. The simulation study and synthetic data application undertaken illustrate the finite sample and asymptotic properties of the proposed functional regression predictor.

Recursive partitioning methods provide computationally efficient surrogates for the Wasserstein distance, yet their statistical behavior and their resolution in the small-discrepancy regime remain insufficiently understood. We study Recursive Rank Matching (RRM) as a representative instance of this class under a population-anchored reference. In this setting, we establish consistency and an explicit convergence rate for the anchored empirical RRM under the quadratic cost. We then identify a dominant mismatch mechanism responsible for the loss of resolution in the small-discrepancy regime. Based on this analysis, we introduce Selective Recursive Rank Matching (SRRM), which suppresses the resulting dominant mismatches and yields a higher-fidelity practical surrogate for the Wasserstein distance at moderate additional computational cost.

Reservoir computing is a well-established approach for processing data with a much lower complexity compared to traditional neural networks. Despite two decades of experimental progress, the core properties of reservoir computing (namely separation, robustness, and fading memory) still lack rigorous mathematical foundations. This paper addresses this gap by providing a control-theoretic framework for the analysis of time-delay-based reservoir computers. We introduce formal definitions of the separation property and fading memory in terms of functional norms, and establish their connection to well-known stability notions for time-delay systems as incremental input-to-state stability. For a class of linear reservoirs, we derive an explicit lower bound for the separation distance via Fourier analysis, offering a computable criterion for reservoir design. Numerical results on the NARMA10 benchmark and continuous-time system prediction validate the approach with a minimal digital implementation.

Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) is a popular machine learning algorithm, and has quite a few effective implementations such as XGBoost and pGBRT. Although many engineering optimizations have been adopted in these implementations, the efficiency and scalability are still unsatisfactory when the feature dimension is high and data size is large. A major reason is that for each feature, they need to scan all the data instances to estimate the information gain of all possible split points, which is very time consuming. To tackle this problem, we propose two novel techniques: \emph{Gradient-based One-Side Sampling} (GOSS) and \emph{Exclusive Feature Bundling} (EFB). With GOSS, we exclude a significant proportion of data instances with small gradients, and only use the rest to estimate the information gain. We prove that, since the data instances with larger gradients play a more important role in the computation of information gain, GOSS can obtain quite accurate estimation of the information gain with a much smaller data size. With EFB, we bundle mutually exclusive features (i.e., they rarely take nonzero values simultaneously), to reduce the number of features. We prove that finding the optimal bundling of exclusive features is NP-hard, but a greedy algorithm can achieve quite good approximation ratio (and thus can effectively reduce the number of features without hurting the accuracy of split point determination by much).