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AI as your investment manager in future?

#artificialintelligence

Investing has long been a complex and often overwhelming process, requiring extensive research, analysis, and decision-making. However, with the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), there has been growing interest in using AI algorithms to manage investments. Can AI be the investment manager of the future? Let's explore the research and real-time experiments to find out. According to a study published in the Journal of Banking and Finance in 2020, robo-advisors, or AI-powered investment management services, can provide cost-effective and personalized investment advice to clients, particularly for those with limited investment knowledge or smaller portfolios.


Research based on Financial Markets part1

#artificialintelligence

Abstract: In a continuous-time setting we investigate how the management of a firm controls a dynamic choice between two generic voluntary disclosure decision rules (strategies): one a full and transparent disclosure referred to as candid, the other, referred to as sparing, under which items only above a dynamic threshold value are disclosed. We show how management are rewarded with a reputational premium for being candid. The candid strategy is, however, costly because the alternative of sparing behaviour shields from a downgrade in disclosed low values. We show how parameters of the model such as news intensity, pay-for-performance and time-to-mandatory-disclosure determine the optimal choice of candid versus sparing strategies and optimal times for management to switch between the two. The private news updates received by management are modelled following a Poisson arrival process, occurring between the fixed (known) mandatory disclosure dates, such as fiscal years or quarters, with the news received by management generated by a background Black-Scholes model of economic activity and of its partial observation.


Biased or Limited: Modeling Sub-Rational Human Investors in Financial Markets

Liu, Penghang, Dwarakanath, Kshama, Vyetrenko, Svitlana S

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-agent market simulation is an effective tool to investigate the impact of various trading strategies in financial markets. One way of designing a trading agent in simulated markets is through reinforcement learning where the agent is trained to optimize its cumulative rewards (e.g., maximizing profits, minimizing risk, improving equitability). While the agent learns a rational policy that optimizes the reward function, in reality, human investors are sub-rational with their decisions often differing from the optimal. In this work, we model human sub-rationality as resulting from two possible causes: psychological bias and computational limitation. We first examine the relationship between investor profits and their degree of sub-rationality, and create hand-crafted market scenarios to intuitively explain the sub-rational human behaviors. Through experiments, we show that our models successfully capture human sub-rationality as observed in the behavioral finance literature. We also examine the impact of sub-rational human investors on market observables such as traded volumes, spread and volatility. We believe our work will benefit research in behavioral finance and provide a better understanding of human trading behavior.


Robot-analysts make BETTER stock recommendations than human investors, study finds

Daily Mail - Science & tech

Robots are said to take over some 200,000 jobs on Wall Street over the next decade and a new study suggests this prediction could soon become a reality. Following the analysis of 76,000 reports from seven different robo-analysis firms, researchers determined that the technology is able to make recommendations similar to their human counterparts - but faster and more accurately. Because the automation is less subject to behavioral biases and conflicts of interest, it can produce a more balanced distribution of ratings, which includes investment's risk and suggestions whether to hold, sell or purchase. Looking at the robot portfolios, the study found their buy recommendations earned returns from 6.4 percent to 6.9 percent, while those of its human counterparts only ranged from 1.2 percent to 1.7 percent. Although robo-analysis sounds like it could weed out human investors, researchers believe that as long as there are people that need human interaction, 'the buy-side, the sell-side will still be around.' Because the automation is less subject to behavioral biases and conflicts of interest, it can produce a more balanced distribution of ratings, which includes investment's risk and suggestions whether to hold, sell or purchase (stock photo) The study was conducted by a team at Indiana University, who wrote: 'Our study provides the first comprehensive analysis of the properties of investment recommendations generated by'Robo-Analysts,' which are human-analyst assisted computer programs conducting automated research analysis.