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Distributionally Robust Transfer Learning with Structurally Missing Covariates, with Application to Cross-National Cardiac Arrest Prediction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Deploying clinical prediction models across healthcare systems often fails when key training covariates are unavailable at deployment and labeled outcomes are limited in the target domain. For example, high-performing models for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) rely on detailed prehospital measurements routinely collected in high-resource settings but unavailable in many international registries. Existing methods either discard missing covariates, sacrificing predictive information, or rely on untestable assumptions about their target distribution. We propose DRUM (\underline{D}istributionally \underline{R}obust \underline{U}nsupervised transfer learning with structurally \underline{M}issing covariates), a framework that transfers prediction models to target populations where certain covariates are structurally absent and outcome labels are unavailable. DRUM partitions covariates into shared components ($X$), observed across all settings, and missing components ($A$), observed only in the source. Rather than imputing missing covariates, DRUM optimizes worst-case predictive performance over the unknown target distribution of $A \mid X$ using a neural network generator, with a robustness parameter controlling allowable deviation from the source conditional. We further develop a bias correction procedure that reduces sensitivity to nuisance estimation error. Simulations show substantial improvements in both mean and worst-case prediction error under distribution shift. Applied to cross-national OHCA prediction, transferring models from a US registry to multiple Asian registries where prehospital variables are unrecorded, DRUM yields better-calibrated predictions and improved clinical classification performance across sites.


Who is James Murray, the new health secretary replacing Wes Streeting?

BBC News

Who is James Murray, the new health secretary replacing Wes Streeting? From a high-profile, media-friendly Secretary of State to a relatively unknown MP, the departure of Wes Streeting and arrival of James Murray has raised eyebrows in the health and political worlds. It is one of the biggest Cabinet jobs with the largest public service departmental budgets. There will be a steep learning curve with no time for preparation away from the front line. Murray says he's deeply honoured to be appointed to the brief and continue Wes Streeting's brilliant work on such a critical mission, but who is he, and what issues will he face in his in tray?


'I was given a choice - keep my legs or keep my life' - the sepsis patient who lived

BBC News

'I was given a choice - keep my legs or keep my life' - the sepsis patient who lived Farmer Marshall Wylie thought nothing of it when he cut his arm, sorting wood in August 2023. And he thought even less of it when he felt ill over the next 48 hours. But the following week, he said he clinically died due to sepsis, and eventually his legs had to be amputated. Farmers are at particular risk of developing sepsis due to incidents on the farm, but can also be reluctant to seek healthcare. Warning: This article contains some graphic images of hands and feet with sepsis.


Causal Fairness for Survival Analysis

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In the data-driven era, large-scale datasets are routinely collected and analyzed using machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) to inform decisions in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, employment, and criminal justice, raising concerns about the fairness behavior of these systems. Existing works in fair ML cover tasks such as bias detection, fair prediction, and fair decision-making, but largely focus on static settings. At the same time, fairness in temporal contexts, particularly survival/time-to-event (TTE) analysis, remains relatively underexplored, with current approaches to fair survival analysis adopting statistical fairness definitions, which, even with unlimited data, cannot disentangle the causal mechanisms that generate disparities. To address this gap, we develop a causal framework for fairness in TTE analysis, enabling the decomposition of disparities in survival into contributions from direct, indirect, and spurious pathways. This provides a human-understandable explanation of why disparities arise and how they evolve over time. Our non-parametric approach proceeds in four steps: (1) formalizing the necessary assumptions about censoring and lack of confounding using a graphical model; (2) recovering the conditional survival function given covariates; (3) applying the Causal Reduction Theorem to reframe the problem in a form amenable to causal pathway decomposition; (4) estimating the effects efficiently. Finally, our approach is used to analyze the temporal evolution of racial disparities in outcome after admission to an intensive care unit (ICU).


He Couldn't Land a Job Interview. Was AI to Blame?

WIRED

Armed with some Python and a white-hot sense of injustice, one medical student spent six months trying to figure out whether an algorithm trashed his job application. It was mid-October, peak leaf-peeping season in Hanover, New Hampshire, and Chad Markey was on a rare break between clinical rotations during his last year of medical school. He should have been inhaling Green Mountain air and gossiping with his Dartmouth classmates about life after graduation. In a few months, they'd all be going their separate ways to start residency training at hospitals around the country. Instead, Markey was alone in his apartment, deep down a rabbit hole, preparing to go to war. He'd wake each morning, eat breakfast, open his laptop at the kitchen table or settle into the tan armchair with the good back support, and start coding . Some days, he wouldn't notice the sun had gone down until one of his roommates came home and asked why the lights weren't on. For days, Markey had been scrolling through a Discord group about medical residency, a font of crowdsourced knowledge where students report back to their peers on every stage of the application and selection process. He'd watched as other students, lots of them, posted about the interview invitations they'd received.


Flaws in Kenya's AI-driven health reforms driving up costs for the poorest

The Guardian

The new'AI-powered' healthcare system appears to penalise the poorest. The new'AI-powered' healthcare system appears to penalise the poorest. An AI system used to predict how much Kenyans can afford to pay for access to healthcare, has systemically driven up costs for the poor, an investigation has found. The healthcare system being rolled out across the country, a key electoral promise of President William Ruto, was launched in October 2024 and intended to replace Kenya's decades-old national insurance system. Billed as " accelerating digital transformation ", it aimed to expand access to care to Kenya's large informal economy: the day labourers, hawkers, farmers and non-salaried workers that make up 83% of its workforce.


FLamby: Datasets and Benchmarks for Cross-Silo Federated Learning in Realistic Healthcare Settings

Neural Information Processing Systems

Federated Learning (FL) is a novel approach enabling several clients holding sensitive data to collaboratively train machine learning models, without centralizing data. The cross-silo FL setting corresponds to the case of few (2-50) reliable clients, each holding medium to large datasets, and is typically found in applications such as healthcare, finance, or industry. While previous works have proposed representative datasets for cross-device FL, few realistic healthcare cross-silo FL datasets exist, thereby slowing algorithmic research in this critical application. In this work, we propose a novel cross-silo dataset suite focused on healthcare, FLamby (Federated Learning AMple Benchmark of Your cross-silo strategies), to bridge the gap between theory and practice of cross-silo FL. FLamby encompasses 7 healthcare datasets with natural splits, covering multiple tasks, modalities, and data volumes, each accompanied with baseline training code.