There is, in some quarters, concern about high-level machine intelligence and superintelligent AI coming up in a few decades, bringing with it significant risks for humanity. In other quarters, these issues are ignored or considered science fiction. We wanted to clarify what the distribution of opinions actually is, what probability the best experts currently assign to high-level machine intelligence coming up within a particular time-frame, which risks they see with that development, and how fast they see these developing. We thus designed a brief questionnaire and distributed it to four groups of experts in 2012/2013. The median estimate of respondents was for a one in two chance that high-level machine intelligence will be developed around 2040-2050, rising to a nine in ten chance by 2075. Experts expect that systems will move on to superintelligence in less than 30 years thereafter. They estimate the chance is about one in three that this development turns out to be 'bad' or 'extremely bad' for humanity.

In the largest survey of its kind, 2,778 researchers who had published in top-tier artificial intelligence (AI) venues gave predictions on the pace of AI progress and the nature and impacts of advanced AI systems The aggregate forecasts give at least a 50% chance of AI systems achieving several milestones by 2028, including autonomously constructing a payment processing site from scratch, creating a song indistinguishable from a new song by a popular musician, and autonomously downloading and fine-tuning a large language model. If science continues undisrupted, the chance of unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task was estimated at 10% by 2027, and 50% by 2047. The latter estimate is 13 years earlier than that reached in a similar survey we conducted only one year earlier [Grace et al., 2022]. However, the chance of all human occupations becoming fully automatable was forecast to reach 10% by 2037, and 50% as late as 2116 (compared to 2164 in the 2022 survey). Most respondents expressed substantial uncertainty about the long-term value of AI progress: While 68.3% thought good outcomes from superhuman AI are more likely than bad, of these net optimists 48% gave at least a 5% chance of extremely bad outcomes such as human extinction, and 59% of net pessimists gave 5% or more to extremely good outcomes. Between 38% and 51% of respondents gave at least a 10% chance to advanced AI leading to outcomes as bad as human extinction. More than half suggested that "substantial" or "extreme" concern is warranted about six different AI-related scenarios, including misinformation, authoritarian control, and inequality. There was disagreement about whether faster or slower AI progress would be better for the future of humanity. However, there was broad agreement that research aimed at minimizing potential risks from AI systems ought to be prioritized more.

As we continue to make strides in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI), one concept that has been gaining momentum is Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Unlike traditional AI systems, AGI aims to replicate the human-like ability to learn, reason and adapt in any given situation. In other words, AGI seeks to create a machine that can perform any intellectual task that a human can do. This level of sophistication is still far from being achieved, but experts predict that once we create AGI, it will be a major turning point in human history, with implications far beyond what we can currently imagine. In this article, we'll dive into what experts are saying about AGI and what it could mean for the future of humanity.

AI is applicable in a wide variety of areas--everything from agriculture to cybersecurity. However, most of our work has been on the short-term impact of AI in business. We're not talking about next quarter, or even next year, but in the decades to come. As AI becomes more powerful, we expect it to have a larger impact on our world, including your organization. So, we decided to do what we do best: a deep analysis of AI applications and implications.

Yoshimi battles the pink robots? These terms pop into our consciousness when we read articles, watch popular movies, or listen to Flaming Lips songs about technological advance, but we rarely take the time to investigate them more fully. It's important to dig a little deeper because technological advance will have huge impacts on our lives and on our society. As an artificial intelligence primer, I will be summarizing the book, Superintelligence, written by Nick Bostrom -- a professor at Oxford University and the founding Director of the Future of Humanity Institute, an interdisciplinary research center focused on the big questions faced by humanity. SIDE NOTE #1: Bostrom is not some obscure sci fi writer -- he is one of the leading academics in this field.

It's almost 2019, and the world isn't the same as it used to be. Vehicles contribute to the driving experience, devices monitor patients' health and send data to their caretakers and physicians in realtime, machines operate autonomously and warn owners when they're on the fritz, and robots play a big role in helping retailers get holiday packages to their customers on time. It's easy to see the benefits connected devices and IoT (Internet of Things) technologies offer society, but it's hard not to wonder what the technology takeover will mean for the job market in certain industries. Will the IoT create more jobs for human workers than automation takes away? According to a research study by Pew Research Center, more Americans are worried than enthusiastic about the idea that machines may one day take over many jobs currently done by humans.

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) will transform modern life by reshaping transportation, health, science, finance, and the military. To adapt public policy, we need to better anticipate these advances. Here we report the results from a large survey of machine learning researchers on their beliefs about progress in AI. Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a truck (by 2027), working in retail (by 2031), writing a bestselling book (by 2049), and working as a surgeon (by 2053). Researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years and of automating all human jobs in 120 years, with Asian respondents expecting these dates much sooner than North Americans. These results will inform discussion amongst researchers and policymakers about anticipating and managing trends in AI. This article is part of the special track on AI and Society.

The expectation that artificial intelligence and automation will replace a significant number of human workers in the next decade is undisputed. What kinds of jobs and how soon, however, is still being worked out. In 2015, a CEDA report suggested 40 per cent of jobs in Australia were highly "susceptible to computerisation" in the next 15 years. Last year consultancy AlphaBeta said three million Australian jobs (around a third of all jobs) were at risk by 2030. The issue is a global one.

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) will have massive social consequences. Self-driving technology might replace millions of driving jobs over the coming decade. In addition to possible unemployment, the transition will bring new challenges, such as rebuilding infrastructure, protecting vehicle cyber-security, and adapting laws and regulations [5]. New challenges, both for AI developers and policy-makers, will also arise from applications in law enforcement, military technology, and marketing [6]. To prepare for these challenges, accurate forecasting of transformative AI would be invaluable. Several sources provide objective evidence about future AI advances: trends in computing hardware [7], task performance [8], and the automation of labor [9]. The predictions of AI experts provide crucial additional information [10, 11, 12]. We survey a large, representative sample of AI experts. Our questions cover the timing of AI advances (including both practical applications of AI and the automation of various human jobs), as well as the social and ethical impacts of AI.

The recent ISC 2017 event saw the unveiling of a high-performance architecture that combines the powers of High Performance Analytics (HPA) and High Performance Computing (HPC). This architecture is driven by an Exabyte-scale memory capacity. To put it in simple terms, the world became witness to what will drive the future of AI by bringing into existence the first scalable learning machine. It will be trained using data from ages gone by and bring us closer to the reality of Advanced AI. In other words, we are looking at something that will outdo humans in every way possible.