Nowadays, social networks are becoming a popular way of analyzing tourist behavior, thanks to the digital traces left by travelers during their stays on these networks. The massive amount of data generated; by the propensity of tourists to share comments and photos during their trip; makes it possible to model their journeys and analyze their behavior. Predicting the next movement of tourists plays a key role in tourism marketing to understand demand and improve decision support. In this paper, we propose a method to understand and to learn tourists' movements based on social network data analysis to predict future movements. The method relies on a machine learning grammatical inference algorithm. A major contribution in this paper is to adapt the grammatical inference algorithm to the context of big data. Our method produces a hidden Markov model representing the movements of a group of tourists. The hidden Markov model is flexible and editable with new data. The capital city of France, Paris is selected to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed methodology.

This paper considers a number of related inverse filtering problems for hidden Markov models (HMMs). In particular, given a sequence of state posteriors and the system dynamics; i) estimate the corresponding sequence of observations, ii) estimate the observation likelihoods, and iii) jointly estimate the observation likelihoods and the observation sequence. We show how to avoid a computationally expensive mixed integer linear program (MILP) by exploiting the algebraic structure of the HMM filter using simple linear algebra operations, and provide conditions for when the quantities can be uniquely reconstructed. We also propose a solution to the more general case where the posteriors are noisily observed. Finally, the proposed inverse filtering algorithms are evaluated on real-world polysomnographic data used for automatic sleep segmentation.

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are fundamental for modeling sequential data, yet learning their parameters from observations remains challenging. Classical methods like the Baum-Welch (EM) algorithm are computationally intensive and prone to local optima, while modern spectral algorithms offer provable guarantees but may produce probability outputs outside valid ranges. This work introduces Belief Net, a novel framework that learns HMM parameters through gradient-based optimization by formulating the HMM's forward filter as a structured neural network. Unlike black-box Transformer models, Belief Net's learnable weights are explicitly the logits of the initial distribution, transition matrix, and emission matrix, ensuring full interpretability. The model processes observation sequences using a decoder-only architecture and is trained end-to-end with standard autoregressive next-observation prediction loss. On synthetic HMM data, Belief Net achieves superior convergence speed compared to Baum-Welch, successfully recovering parameters in both undercomplete and overcomplete settings where spectral methods fail. Comparisons with Transformer-based models are also presented on real-world language data.

First provide a summary of the paper, and then address the following criteria: Quality, clarity, originality and significance. Summary: The authors consider the problem of learning a mixture of Hidden Markov Models. The authors first suggest using a spectral learning algorithm to learn a set of parameters for a hidden Markov model, and then provide a method for resolving the permutation ambiguity in the transition matrix to recover it's underlying block-diagonal structure. I found this paper to be very well written for the most part. The experimental results section could be fleshed out a bit. In particular the 2. The authors rely on the fact that a mixture of Hidden Markov Models can be expressed as a single HMM.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Hidden Markov models (HMM) are commonly used in generation tasks and have demonstrated strong capabilities in neuro-symbolic applications for the Markov property. These applications leverage the strengths of neural networks and symbolic reasoning to create robust and interpretable AI systems. However, they may inherit and amplify the shortcomings of both approaches. Both components require dense computation and data transfer, and their communication further hinders performance. This paper proposes Norm-Q, a normalized linear quantization approach for compressing probabilistic symbolic models, such as HMMs. We reduce the bit width of the data with minimal impact, thereby alleviating memory and bandwidth stress and enabling deployment on potential custom hardware. Our method introduces a normalized quantization-aware expectation maximization process for probabilistic model training. The experimental results show that Norm-Q achieves a higher compression rate with reasonable score loss compared to traditional quantization methods. In the case of the constrained generation task of large language models, we successfully quantize an HMM of 4096 hidden states to 8 bits without loss and, at most, 3 bits with acceptable loss. Notably, the Norm-Q method can achieve a compression rate of 99% for the weights of the HMM. The code is open source at https://github.com/superstarghy/Norm-Q.

Small-variance asymptotics provide an emerging technique for obtaining scalable combinatorial algorithms from rich probabilistic models. We present a small-variance asymptotic analysis of the Hidden Markov Model and its infinite-state Bayesian nonparametric extension. Starting with the standard HMM, we first derive a "hard" inference algorithm analogous to k-means that arises when particular variances in the model tend to zero. This analysis is then extended to the Bayesian nonparametric case, yielding a simple, scalable, and flexible algorithm for discrete-state sequence data with a non-fixed number of states. We also derive the corresponding combinatorial objective functions arising from our analysis, which involve a k-means-like term along with penalties based on state transitions and the number of states. A key property of such algorithms is that -- particularly in the nonparametric setting -- standard probabilistic inference algorithms lack scalability and are heavily dependent on good initialization. A number of results on synthetic and real data sets demonstrate the advantages of the proposed framework.

In this paper, we propose a learning approach for the Mixture of Hidden Markov Models (MHMM) based on the Method of Moments (MoM). Computational advantages of MoM make MHMM learning amenable for large data sets. It is not possible to directly learn an MHMM with existing learning approaches, mainly due to a permutation ambiguity in the estimation process. We show that it is possible to resolve this ambiguity using the spectral properties of a global transition matrix even in the presence of estimation noise. We demonstrate the validity of our approach on synthetic and real data.