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 h-learner


Hybrid Meta-learners for Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects

Liang, Zhongyuan, van der Laan, Lars, Alaa, Ahmed

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from observational data involves modeling decisions that differ from supervised learning, particularly concerning how to regularize model complexity. Previous approaches can be grouped into two primary "meta-learner" paradigms that impose distinct inductive biases. Indirect meta-learners first fit and regularize separate potential outcome (PO) models and then estimate CATE by taking their difference, whereas direct meta-learners construct and directly regularize estimators for the CATE function itself. Neither approach consistently outperforms the other across all scenarios: indirect learners perform well when the PO functions are simple, while direct learners outperform when the CATE is simpler than individual PO functions. In this paper, we introduce the Hybrid Learner (H-learner), a novel regularization strategy that interpolates between the direct and indirect regularizations depending on the dataset at hand. The H-learner achieves this by learning intermediate functions whose difference closely approximates the CATE without necessarily requiring accurate individual approximations of the POs themselves. We demonstrate empirically that intentionally allowing suboptimal fits to the POs improves the bias-variance tradeoff in estimating CATE. Experiments conducted on semi-synthetic and real-world benchmark datasets illustrate that the H-learner consistently operates at the Pareto frontier, effectively combining the strengths of both direct and indirect meta-learners.


Individualised Treatment Effects Estimation with Composite Treatments and Composite Outcomes

Chauhan, Vinod Kumar, Clifton, Lei, Nigam, Gaurav, Clifton, David A.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Estimating individualised treatment effect (ITE) -- that is the causal effect of a set of variables (also called exposures, treatments, actions, policies, or interventions), referred to as \textit{composite treatments}, on a set of outcome variables of interest, referred to as \textit{composite outcomes}, for a unit from observational data -- remains a fundamental problem in causal inference with applications across disciplines, such as healthcare, economics, education, social science, marketing, and computer science. Previous work in causal machine learning for ITE estimation is limited to simple settings, like single treatments and single outcomes. This hinders their use in complex real-world scenarios; for example, consider studying the effect of different ICU interventions, such as beta-blockers and statins for a patient admitted for heart surgery, on different outcomes of interest such as atrial fibrillation and in-hospital mortality. The limited research into composite treatments and outcomes is primarily due to data scarcity for all treatments and outcomes. To address the above challenges, we propose a novel and innovative hypernetwork-based approach, called \emph{H-Learner}, to solve ITE estimation under composite treatments and composite outcomes, which tackles the data scarcity issue by dynamically sharing information across treatments and outcomes. Our empirical analysis with binary and arbitrary composite treatments and outcomes demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach compared to existing methods.