In machine learning, the loss functions optimized during training often differ from the target loss that defines task performance due to computational intractability or lack of differentiability. We present an in-depth study of the target loss estimation error relative to the surrogate loss estimation error. Our analysis leads to $H$-consistency bounds, which are guarantees accounting for the hypothesis set $H$. These bounds offer stronger guarantees than Bayes-consistency or $H$-calibration and are more informative than excess error bounds. We begin with binary classification, establishing tight distribution-dependent and -independent bounds. We provide explicit bounds for convex surrogates (including linear models and neural networks) and analyze the adversarial setting for surrogates like $ρ$-margin and sigmoid loss. Extending to multi-class classification, we present the first $H$-consistency bounds for max, sum, and constrained losses, covering both non-adversarial and adversarial scenarios. We demonstrate that in some cases, non-trivial $H$-consistency bounds are unattainable. We also investigate comp-sum losses (e.g., cross-entropy, MAE), deriving their first $H$-consistency bounds and introducing smooth adversarial variants that yield robust learning algorithms. We develop a comprehensive framework for deriving these bounds across various surrogates, introducing new characterizations for constrained and comp-sum losses. Finally, we examine the growth rates of $H$-consistency bounds, establishing a universal square-root growth rate for smooth surrogates in binary and multi-class tasks, and analyze minimizability gaps to guide surrogate selection.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable performance but face critical challenges: hallucinations and high inference costs. Leveraging multiple experts offers a solution: deferring uncertain inputs to more capable experts improves reliability, while routing simpler queries to smaller, distilled models enhances efficiency. This motivates the problem of learning with multiple-expert deferral. This thesis presents a comprehensive study of this problem and the related problem of learning with abstention, supported by strong consistency guarantees. First, for learning with abstention (a special case of deferral), we analyze score-based and predictor-rejector formulations in multi-class classification. We introduce new families of surrogate losses and prove strong non-asymptotic, hypothesis set-specific consistency guarantees, resolving two existing open questions. We analyze both single-stage and practical two-stage settings, with experiments on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and SVHN demonstrating the superior performance of our algorithms. Second, we address general multi-expert deferral in classification. We design new surrogate losses for both single-stage and two-stage scenarios and prove they benefit from strong $H$-consistency bounds. For the two-stage scenario, we show that our surrogate losses are realizable $H$-consistent for constant cost functions, leading to effective new algorithms. Finally, we introduce a novel framework for regression with deferral to address continuous label spaces. Our versatile framework accommodates multiple experts and various cost structures, supporting both single-stage and two-stage methods. It subsumes recent work on regression with abstention. We propose new surrogate losses with proven $H$-consistency and demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of the resulting algorithms.

A fundamental question in multiclass classification concerns understanding the consistency properties of surrogate risk minimization algorithms, which minimize a (often convex) surrogate to the multiclass 0-1 loss. In particular, the framework of calibrated surrogates has played an important role in analyzing the Bayes consistency properties of such algorithms, i.e. in studying convergence to a Bayes optimal classifier (Zhang, 2004; Tewari and Bartlett, 2007). However, follow-up work has suggested this framework can be of limited value when studying H-consistency; in particular, concerns have been raised that even when the data comes from an underlying linear model, minimizing certain convex calibrated surrogates over linear scoring functions fails to recover the true model (Long and Servedio, 2013). In this paper, we investigate this apparent conundrum. We find that while some calibrated surrogates can indeed fail to provide H-consistency when minimized over a natural-looking but naively chosen scoring function class F, the situation can potentially be remedied by minimizing them over a more carefully chosen class of scoring functions F. In particular, for the popular one-vs-all hinge and logistic surrogates, both of which are calibrated (and therefore provide Bayes consistency) under realizable models, but were previously shown to pose problems for realizable H-consistency, we derive a form of scoring function class F that enables H-consistency. When H is the class of linear models, the class F consists of certain piecewise linear scoring functions that are characterized by the same number of parameters as in the linear case, and minimization over which can be performed using an adaptation of the min-pooling idea from neural network training. Our experiments confirm that the one-vs-all surrogates, when trained over this class of scoring functions F, yield better multiclass classifiers than when trained over standard linear scoring functions.

A fundamental question in multiclass classification concerns understanding the consistency properties of surrogate risk minimization algorithms, which minimize a (often convex) surrogate to the multiclass 0-1 loss. In particular, the framework of calibrated surrogates has played an important role in analyzing the Bayes consistency properties of such algorithms, i.e. in studying convergence to a Bayes optimal classifier (Zhang, 2004; Tewari and Bartlett, 2007). However, follow-up work has suggested this framework can be of limited value when studying H-consistency; in particular, concerns have been raised that even when the data comes from an underlying linear model, minimizing certain convex calibrated surrogates over linear scoring functions fails to recover the true model (Long and Servedio, 2013). In this paper, we investigate this apparent conundrum. We find that while some calibrated surrogates can indeed fail to provide H-consistency when minimized over a natural-looking but naively chosen scoring function class F, the situation can potentially be remedied by minimizing them over a more carefully chosen class of scoring functions F. In particular, for the popular one-vs-all hinge and logistic surrogates, both of which are calibrated (and therefore provide Bayes consistency) under realizable models, but were previously shown to pose problems for realizable H-consistency, we derive a form of scoring function class F that enables H-consistency. When H is the class of linear models, the class F consists of certain piecewise linear scoring functions that are characterized by the same number of parameters as in the linear case, and minimization over which can be performed using an adaptation of the min-pooling idea from neural network training.

We present a detailed study of surrogate losses and algorithms for multi-label learning, supported by $H$-consistency bounds. We first show that, for the simplest form of multi-label loss (the popular Hamming loss), the well-known consistent binary relevance surrogate suffers from a sub-optimal dependency on the number of labels in terms of $H$-consistency bounds, when using smooth losses such as logistic losses. Furthermore, this loss function fails to account for label correlations. To address these drawbacks, we introduce a novel surrogate loss, multi-label logistic loss, that accounts for label correlations and benefits from label-independent $H$-consistency bounds. We then broaden our analysis to cover a more extensive family of multi-label losses, including all common ones and a new extension defined based on linear-fractional functions with respect to the confusion matrix. We also extend our multi-label logistic losses to more comprehensive multi-label comp-sum losses, adapting comp-sum losses from standard classification to the multi-label learning. We prove that this family of surrogate losses benefits from $H$-consistency bounds, and thus Bayes-consistency, across any general multi-label loss. Our work thus proposes a unified surrogate loss framework benefiting from strong consistency guarantees for any multi-label loss, significantly expanding upon previous work which only established Bayes-consistency and for specific loss functions. Additionally, we adapt constrained losses from standard classification to multi-label constrained losses in a similar way, which also benefit from $H$-consistency bounds and thus Bayes-consistency for any multi-label loss. We further describe efficient gradient computation algorithms for minimizing the multi-label logistic loss.