The increasingly fast development cycle for online course contents, along with the diverse student demographics in each online classroom, make real-time student outcomes prediction an interesting topic for both industrial research and practical needs. In this paper, we tackle the problem of real-time student performance prediction in an on-going course using a domain adaptation framework. This framework is a system trained on labeled student outcome data from previous coursework but is meant to be deployed on another course. In particular, we introduce a GritNet architecture, and develop an unsupervised domain adaptation method to transfer a GritNet trained on a past course to a new course without any student outcome label. Our results for real Udacity student graduation predictions show that the GritNet not only generalizes well from one course to another across different Nanodegree programs, but also enhances real-time predictions explicitly in the first few weeks when accurate predictions are most challenging.

Abstract--Increasingly fast development and update cycle of online course contents, and diverse demographics of students in each online classroom, make student performance prediction in real-time (before the course finishes) an interesting topic for both industrial research and practical needs. In that, we tackle the problem of real-time student performance prediction with ongoing courses in a domain adaptation framework, which is a system trained on students' labeled outcome from one previous coursework but is meant to be deployed on another. In particular, we first review recently-developed GritNet architecture [1] which is the current state of the art for student performance prediction problem, and introduce a new unsupervised domain adaptation method to transfer a GritNet trained on a past course to a new course without any (students' outcome) label. Our results for real Udacity students' graduation predictions show that the GritNet not only generalizes well from one course to another across different Nanodegree programs, but enhances real-time predictions explicitly in the first few weeks when accurate predictions are most challenging. With the growing need for people to keep learning throughout their careers, massive open online course (MOOCs) companies, such as Udacity and Coursera, not only aggressively design new courses that are relevant (e.g., self-driving cars and flying cars) but refresh existing courses' content frequently to keep them up-to-date.

Student performance prediction - where a machine forecasts the future performance of students as they interact with online coursework - is a challenging problem. Reliable early-stage predictions of a student's future performance could be critical to facilitate timely educational interventions during a course. However, very few prior studies have explored this problem from a deep learning perspective. In this paper, we recast the student performance prediction problem as a sequential event prediction problem and propose a new deep learning based algorithm, termed GritNet, which builds upon the bidirectional long short term memory (BLSTM). Our results, from real Udacity students' graduation predictions, show that the GritNet not only consistently outperforms the standard logistic-regression based method, but that improvements are substantially pronounced in the first few weeks when accurate predictions are most challenging.