We test whether the optimal learning-rate schedule depends on bit-width during from-initialisation quantisation-aware training (QAT) for sub-100M decoder language models. A 720-run factorial grid (Phase 2) over bit-width x warmdown fraction x LR magnitude x model size x seed (FP16/INT8/INT6, 15M-100M, 5 seeds) finds the optimal warmdown is 33% at every (bit-width, size) cell. The primary hypothesis -- that INT6 QAT requires a different schedule than higher-precision training -- is falsified at FP16/INT8/INT6. A 625-run follow-up (Phase 5) probes the null along five axes: optimiser (AdamW), schedule shape (cosine), training length (up to 9x more iterations), an extended size sweep (5M-350M), and an INT4 sweep from 3M to 100M. The null is robust under all three setup changes. The INT6 penalty follows a log-linear scaling law whose fit on Phase 2 predicts the five held-out Phase 5 sizes (5M, 8M, 175M, 250M, 350M) within their 95% prediction intervals (5/5). For INT4 the picture is sharper than the higher precisions: at 50M and 100M, wd33 is decisively optimal (paired z ~ 12-15, 10/10 seeds); below 50M, across the six tested sizes from 3M to 30M, no individual size shows a statistically significant schedule preference and the per-size mean penalty oscillates within seed-level noise. The boundary is therefore a transition between a noise-dominated regime below 50M and a decisive wd33 regime at and above 50M, not a clean wd10 region. A weight-to-grid-distance probe falsifies the simplest mechanism for the FP16/INT8/INT6 null result (rapid grid-snapping): pre-warmdown, INT6-QAT weights sit at essentially the same distance from the INT6 grid as FP16 weights (ratio ~ 1.04). Practical recommendation: at sub-100M scale, tune the LR schedule once at FP16 and apply unchanged to INT8/INT6 QAT; for INT4 at 50M+ use wd33; for INT4 below 50M the schedule choice is in the noise.

Shilling is the use of artificial bids to make competition appear stronger and push prices upward. We study repeated first-price auctions in which shilling affects feedback but not allocation: the learner wins or loses against the real competing bid, but after a loss observes the maximum of the real bid and an independent shill bid. Thus the manipulation changes what the learner observes and hence how it learns to bid, without changing the outcome of the current auction. We analyze regret with respect to the best bid benchmark, assuming that the shill-bid distribution is known. Even then, shilling can mask the real bid, while useful side information appears only through intermittent low-shill events. Our algorithm combines a robust interval-elimination branch, which ignores the shilled report and achieves the dynamic-pricing rate $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(T^{2/3})$, with an optimistic branch that debiases losing-side reports and exploits the resulting suffix information when it is reliable and achieves the first-price auctions rate $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$. A validation and racing procedure lets the algorithm use these optimistic updates without knowing the right scale or feedback geometry in advance. We complement the upper bounds with a matching lower bound, up to logarithmic factors, in the single-active-region case. Overall, the results show that even feedback-only shilling can sharply alter the statistical difficulty of repeated bidding.

We study nonparametric estimation of Schrödinger bridge (SB) drifts from i.i.d.\ data observed on a single time interval. Starting from the conditional-ratio form of the Schrödinger bridge time-series (SBTS) drift formula, we analyze a direct Nadaraya--Watson plug-in estimator built from kernelized numerator and denominator terms. Unlike recent SB analyses based on entropic-OT potentials, Sinkhorn iterations, or iterative bridge solvers, our approach works directly at the drift level and isolates \emph{statistical error} from optimization, approximation, and discretization error. Under Hölder regularity, a marginal-density floor, and bounded support, we prove a uniform non-asymptotic bound for admissible bandwidth pairs, a pointwise CLT under genuine undersmoothing, and an adaptive bandwidth selector satisfying an oracle inequality. We also prove a pivot-local minimax lower bound which, through an explicit uniform pivot, yields a global minimax lower bound under transparent compatibility conditions; hence the adaptive selector is minimax-rate optimal up to logarithmic factors. Synthetic experiments provide theorem-targeted diagnostics for finite-sample scaling, Gaussian approximation, and adaptive behavior.

We study online prediction under distribution shift, where inputs arrive chronologically and outcomes are revealed only after prediction. In this setting, predictors must remain stable in quiet regimes yet adapt when regimes shift, and the right adaptation memory is unknown in advance. We propose MELO (Memory-hedged Exponentially Weighted Least-Squares Online aggregation), a model-agnostic method that hedges across adaptation scales: it wraps any non-anticipating base-predictor pool with exponentially weighted least-squares (EWLS) adaptation experts at multiple forgetting factors, and aggregates raw and EWLS-adapted forecasts with MLpol which is a parameter-free online aggregation rule. Under boundedness conditions, we establish deterministic oracle inequalities showing that it competes with both the best raw predictor and the best bounded, time-varying affine combinations of the base predictions, up to a path-length-dependent tracking cost and a sublinear aggregation overhead. We evaluate MELO on French national electricity-load forecasting through the COVID-19 lockdown using no regime indicators, lockdown dates, or policy covariates. MELO reduces overall RMSE by 34.7%relative to base-only MLpol and achieves lower overall RMSE than a TabICL reference supplied with an external COVID policy-response covariate. MELO requires only lightweight per-step recursive updates without model retraining.

A.1 Initial Value Problem518 We use the datasets from Pfaff et al. (2021), and take the first and last frames of each trajectory as the519 input and output data for the initial value problem.520 Cylinder The dataset includes computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of the flow around521 a cylinder, governed by the incompressible Navier-Stokes equation. These simulations were generated522 using COMSOL software, employing an irregular 2D-triangular mesh. The trajectory consists of 600523 timestamps, with a time interval of t =0 .01s between each timestamp.524 Airfoil The dataset contains CFD simulations of the flow around an airfoil, following the com-525 pressible Navier-Stokes equation. These simulations were conducted using SU2 software, using an526 irregular 2D-triangular mesh. The trajectory encompasses 600 timestamps, with a time interval of527 t =0 .008s between each timestamp.528 A.2 Dynamics Modeling529 2D-Navier-Stokes (Navier-Stokes) We consider the 2DNavier-Stokes equation as presented in Li530 et al. (2021); Yin et al. (2022).

Machine learning approaches for solving partial differential equations require learning mappings between function spaces. While convolutional or graph neural networks are constrained to discretized functions, neural operators present a promising milestone toward mapping functions directly. Despite impressive results they still face challenges with respect to the domain geometry and typically rely on some form of discretization. In order to alleviate such limitations, we present CORAL, a new method that leverages coordinate-based networks for solving PDEs on general geometries. CORAL is designed to remove constraints on the input mesh, making it applicable to any spatial sampling and geometry. Its ability extends to diverse problem domains, including PDE solving, spatio-temporal forecasting, and geometry-aware inference. CORAL demonstrates robust performance across multiple resolutions and performs well in both convex and non-convex domains, surpassing or performing on par with state-of-the-art models.

By minimising off-target activation, Bayesian target optimisation could enable (e.g.)421 more precise synaptic connectivity mapping, improving our understanding of neural circuitry. This422 advancement has potential implications for understanding brain disorders like epilepsy, where423 abnormal synaptic connections are central to seizure generation and propagation. Deepening our424 understanding of these diseases can lead to enhanced targeted interventions and more effective425 therapeutic strategies, benefiting individuals with neurological disorders.426 First, we develop431 the approach for single optogenetic targets, as this is most closely related to existing GP-based432 receptive field inference techniques. We use a GP-Bernoulli approach to model the response ynt of436 neuron n on trial t to a single-target stimulus xt,437 ynt Bernoulli( (gn(xt))), (9) where the stimulus xt =( c1t,c2t,It) 2 R3 represents the two-dimensional coordinates and laser438 power of the t-th hologram.

Figure 10: Visual results on Pascal validation set with 60 labels. As is shown, ARCO-SGand ARCO-SAG consistently yield more accurate and sharper boundaries compared to all other SSL methods.

For medical image segmentation, contrastive learning is the dominant practice to improve the quality of visual representations by contrasting semantically similar and dissimilar pairs of samples. This is enabled by the observation that without accessing ground truth labels, negative examples with truly dissimilar anatomical features, if sampled, can significantly improve the performance. In reality, however, these samples may come from similar anatomical regions and the models may struggle to distinguish the minority tail-class samples, making the tail classes more prone to misclassification, both of which typically lead to model collapse. In this paper, we propose ARCO, a semi-supervised contrastive learning (CL) framework with stratified group theory for medical image segmentation. In particular, we first propose building ARCO through the concept of variance-reduced estimation and show that certain variance-reduction techniques are particularly beneficial in pixel/voxel-level segmentation tasks with extremely limited labels. Furthermore, we theoretically prove these sampling techniques are universal in variance reduction. Finally, we experimentally validate our approaches on eight benchmarks, i.e., five 2D/3D medical and three semantic segmentation datasets, with different label settings, and our methods consistently outperform state-of-the-art semi-supervised methods. Additionally, we augment the CL frameworks with these sampling techniques and demonstrate significant gains over previous methods. We believe our work is an important step towards semi-supervised medical image segmentation by quantifying the limitation of current self-supervision objectives for accomplishing such challenging safety-critical tasks. 1