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Learning Instrumental Variable from Data Fusion for Treatment Effect Estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The advent of the big data era brought new opportunities and challenges to draw treatment effect in data fusion, that is, a mixed dataset collected from multiple sources (each source with an independent treatment assignment mechanism). Due to possibly omitted source labels and unmeasured confounders, traditional methods cannot estimate individual treatment assignment probability and infer treatment effect effectively. Therefore, we propose to reconstruct the source label and model it as a Group Instrumental Variable (GIV) to implement IV-based Regression for treatment effect estimation. In this paper, we conceptualize this line of thought and develop a unified framework (Meta-EM) to (1) map the raw data into a representation space to construct Linear Mixed Models for the assigned treatment variable; (2) estimate the distribution differences and model the GIV for the different treatment assignment mechanisms; and (3) adopt an alternating training strategy to iteratively optimize the representations and the joint distribution to model GIV for IV regression. Empirical results demonstrate the advantages of our Meta-EM compared with state-of-the-art methods.


Huawei's 10 technology megatrends for 2025

#artificialintelligence

Chinese technology company Huawei launched its Global Industry Vision (GIV) report that identifies 10 megatrends shaping how we live and work. Drawing from Huawei's own quantitative data and real-world use cases of how intelligent technology is permeating every industry, the report also predicts technology trends up until 2025. GIV predicts a 14% global penetration rate of home robots. GIV predicts that the percentage of companies using AR/VR will increase to 10%. Future searches will be button-free, personal social networks will be created effortlessly, and industry will benefit from "zero-search maintenance".


Congestion Games for V2G-Enabled EV Charging

AAAI Conferences

A model of the problem of charging and discharging electrical vehicles as a congestion game is presented. A generalization of congestion games - feedback congestion games (FCG) - is introduced. The charging of grid-integrated vehicles, which can also discharge energy back to the grid, is a natural FCG application. FCGs are proven to be exact potential games and therefore converge to a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium by an iterated better-response process. A compact representation and an algorithm that enable efficient best-response search are presented. A detailed empirical evaluation assesses the performance of the iterated best-response process. The evaluation considers the quality of the resulting solutions and the rate of convergence to a stable state. The effect of allowing to also discharge batteries using FCG is compared to scenarios that only include charging and is found to dramatically improve the predictability of the achieved solutions as well as the balancing of load.


Monte Carlo Methods for Tempo Tracking and Rhythm Quantization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The on tin uous hidden v ariables denote the temp o. Ex-a t omputation of p osterior features su h as the MAP state is in tra table in this mo del lass, so w e in tro du e Mon te Carlo metho ds for in tegration and optimization. The metho ds an b e applied in b oth online and bat h s enarios su h as temp o tra king and trans ription and are th us p oten tially useful in a n um b er of m usi appli ations su h as adaptiv e automati a ompanimen t, s ore t yp esetting and m usi information retriev al. 1. Ho w ev er, when op erating on sampled audio data from p olyphoni a ousti al signals, extra tion of a s ore-lik e des ription is a v ery hallenging auditory s ene analysis task (V er o e, Gardner, & S heirer, 1998). In this pap er, w e fo us on a subproblem in m usi -ir, where w e assume that exa t timing information of notes is a v ailable, for example as a stream of MIDI 1 ev en ts from a digital k eyb oard. One example is automati s ore t yp esetting, 1. Musi al Instrumen ts Digital In terfa e. Ea h time a k ey is pressed, a MIDI k eyb oard generates a short message on taining pit h and k ey v elo it y . In on v en tional m usi notation, the onset time of ea h note is impli itly represen ted b y the um ulativ e sum of durations of previous notes. Durations are en o ded b y simple rational n um b ers (e.g., quarter note, eigh th note), onsequen tly all ev en ts in m usi are pla ed on a dis rete grid. This is due to the fa t that m usi ians in tro du e in ten tional (and unin ten tional) deviations from a me hani al pres ription. F or example timing of ev en ts an b e delib erately dela y ed or pushed. Moreo v er, the temp o an u tuate b y slo wing do wn or a elerating. In fa t, su h deviations are natural asp e ts of expressiv e p erforman e; in the absen e of these, m usi tends to sound rather dull and me hani al. On the other hand, if these deviations are not a oun ted for during trans ription, resulting s ores ha v e often v ery p o or qualit y . Robust and fast quan tization and temp o tra king is also an imp ortan t requiremen t for in tera tiv e p erforman e systems; appli ations that \listen" to a p erformer for generating an a ompanimen t or impro visation in real time (Raphael, 2001b; Thom, 2000). A t last, su h mo dels are also useful in m usi ology for systemati study and hara terization of expressiv e timing b y prin ipled analysis of existing p erforman e data. F rom a theoreti al p ersp e tiv e, sim ultaneous quan tization and temp o tra king is a \ hi k en-and-egg" problem: the quan tization dep ends up on the in tended temp o in terpre-tation and the temp o in terpretation dep ends up on the quan tization. Apparen tly, h uman listeners an resolv e this am biguit y (in most ases) without an y e ort.


An Integrated Framework for Learning and Reasoning

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Learning and reasoning are both aspects of what is considered to be intelligence. Their studies within AI have been separated historically, learning being the topic of machine learning and neural networks, and reasoning falling under classical (or symbolic) AI. However, learning and reasoning are in many ways interdependent. This paper discusses the nature of some of these interdependencies and proposes a general framework called FLARE, that combines inductive learning using prior knowledge together with reasoning in a propositional setting. Several examples that test the framework are presented, including classical induction, many important reasoning protocols and two simple expert systems.


The Difficulties of Learning Logic Programs with Cut

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

As real logic programmers normally use cut (!), an effective learning procedure for logic programs should be able to deal with it. Because the cut predicate has only a procedural meaning, clauses containing cut cannot be learned using an extensional evaluation method, as is done in most learning systems. On the other hand, searching a space of possible programs (instead of a space of independent clauses) is unfeasible. An alternative solution is to generate first a candidate base program which covers the positive examples, and then make it consistent by inserting cut where appropriate. The problem of learning programs with cut has not been investigated before and this seems to be a natural and reasonable approach. We generalize this scheme and investigate the difficulties that arise. Some of the major shortcomings are actually caused, in general, by the need for intensional evaluation. As a conclusion, the analysis of this paper suggests, on precise and technical grounds, that learning cut is difficult, and current induction techniques should probably be restricted to purely declarative logic languages.