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Learning Instrumental Variable from Data Fusion for Treatment Effect Estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The advent of the big data era brought new opportunities and challenges to draw treatment effect in data fusion, that is, a mixed dataset collected from multiple sources (each source with an independent treatment assignment mechanism). Due to possibly omitted source labels and unmeasured confounders, traditional methods cannot estimate individual treatment assignment probability and infer treatment effect effectively. Therefore, we propose to reconstruct the source label and model it as a Group Instrumental Variable (GIV) to implement IV-based Regression for treatment effect estimation. In this paper, we conceptualize this line of thought and develop a unified framework (Meta-EM) to (1) map the raw data into a representation space to construct Linear Mixed Models for the assigned treatment variable; (2) estimate the distribution differences and model the GIV for the different treatment assignment mechanisms; and (3) adopt an alternating training strategy to iteratively optimize the representations and the joint distribution to model GIV for IV regression. Empirical results demonstrate the advantages of our Meta-EM compared with state-of-the-art methods.


Huawei's 10 technology megatrends for 2025

#artificialintelligence

Chinese technology company Huawei launched its Global Industry Vision (GIV) report that identifies 10 megatrends shaping how we live and work. Drawing from Huawei's own quantitative data and real-world use cases of how intelligent technology is permeating every industry, the report also predicts technology trends up until 2025. GIV predicts a 14% global penetration rate of home robots. GIV predicts that the percentage of companies using AR/VR will increase to 10%. Future searches will be button-free, personal social networks will be created effortlessly, and industry will benefit from "zero-search maintenance".


Congestion Games for V2G-Enabled EV Charging

AAAI Conferences

A model of the problem of charging and discharging electrical vehicles as a congestion game is presented. A generalization of congestion games - feedback congestion games (FCG) - is introduced. The charging of grid-integrated vehicles, which can also discharge energy back to the grid, is a natural FCG application. FCGs are proven to be exact potential games and therefore converge to a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium by an iterated better-response process. A compact representation and an algorithm that enable efficient best-response search are presented. A detailed empirical evaluation assesses the performance of the iterated best-response process. The evaluation considers the quality of the resulting solutions and the rate of convergence to a stable state. The effect of allowing to also discharge batteries using FCG is compared to scenarios that only include charging and is found to dramatically improve the predictability of the achieved solutions as well as the balancing of load.


New Polynomial Classes for Logic-Based Abduction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We address the problem of propositional logic-based abduction, i.e., the problem of searching for a best explanation for a given propositional observation according to a given propositional knowledge base. We give a general algorithm, based on the notion of projection; then we study restrictions over the representations of the knowledge base and of the query, and find new polynomial classes of abduction problems.


Monte Carlo Methods for Tempo Tracking and Rhythm Quantization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a probabilistic generative model for timing deviations in expressive music performance. The structure of the proposed model is equivalent to a switching state space model. The switch variables correspond to discrete note locations as in a musical score. The continuous hidden variables denote the tempo. We formulate two well known music recognition problems, namely tempo tracking and automatic transcription (rhythm quantization) as filtering and maximum a posteriori (MAP) state estimation tasks. Exact computation of posterior features such as the MAP state is intractable in this model class, so we introduce Monte Carlo methods for integration and optimization. We compare Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods (such as Gibbs sampling, simulated annealing and iterative improvement) and sequential Monte Carlo methods (particle filters). Our simulation results suggest better results with sequential methods. The methods can be applied in both online and batch scenarios such as tempo tracking and transcription and are thus potentially useful in a number of music applications such as adaptive automatic accompaniment, score typesetting and music information retrieval.


An Integrated Framework for Learning and Reasoning

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Learning and reasoning are both aspects of what is considered to be intelligence. Their studies within AI have been separated historically, learning being the topic of machine learning and neural networks, and reasoning falling under classical (or symbolic) AI. However, learning and reasoning are in many ways interdependent. This paper discusses the nature of some of these interdependencies and proposes a general framework called FLARE, that combines inductive learning using prior knowledge together with reasoning in a propositional setting. Several examples that test the framework are presented, including classical induction, many important reasoning protocols and two simple expert systems.


The Difficulties of Learning Logic Programs with Cut

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

As real logic programmers normally use cut (!), an effective learning procedure for logic programs should be able to deal with it. Because the cut predicate has only a procedural meaning, clauses containing cut cannot be learned using an extensional evaluation method, as is done in most learning systems. On the other hand, searching a space of possible programs (instead of a space of independent clauses) is unfeasible. An alternative solution is to generate first a candidate base program which covers the positive examples, and then make it consistent by inserting cut where appropriate. The problem of learning programs with cut has not been investigated before and this seems to be a natural and reasonable approach. We generalize this scheme and investigate the difficulties that arise. Some of the major shortcomings are actually caused, in general, by the need for intensional evaluation. As a conclusion, the analysis of this paper suggests, on precise and technical grounds, that learning cut is difficult, and current induction techniques should probably be restricted to purely declarative logic languages.