We introduce a novel high-frequency daily panel dataset of both markets and news-based indicators -- including Geopolitical Risk, Economic Policy Uncertainty, Trade Policy Uncertainty, and Political Sentiment -- for 42 countries across both emerging and developed markets. Using this dataset, we study how sentiment dynamics shape sovereign risk, measured by Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads, and evaluate their forecasting value relative to traditional drivers such as global monetary policy and market volatility. Our horse-race analysis of forecasting models demonstrates that incorporating news-based indicators significantly enhances predictive accuracy and enriches the analysis, with non-linear machine learning methods -- particularly Random Forests -- delivering the largest gains. Our analysis reveals that while global financial variables remain the dominant drivers of sovereign risk, geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty also play a meaningful role. Crucially, their effects are amplified through non-linear interactions with global financial conditions. Finally, we document pronounced regional heterogeneity, as certain asset classes and emerging markets exhibit heightened sensitivity to shocks in policy rates, global financial volatility, and geopolitical risk.

Misleading narratives play a crucial role in shaping public opinion during elections, as they can influence how voters perceive candidates and political parties. This entails the need to detect these narratives accurately. To address this, we introduce the first taxonomy of common misleading narratives that circulated during recent elections in Europe. Based on this taxonomy, we construct and analyse UKElectionNarratives: the first dataset of human-annotated misleading narratives which circulated during the UK General Elections in 2019 and 2024. We also benchmark Pre-trained and Large Language Models (focusing on GPT-4o), studying their effectiveness in detecting election-related misleading narratives. Finally, we discuss potential use cases and make recommendations for future research directions using the proposed codebook and dataset.

Geopolitical strife and tight financing conditions will slow global economic growth, while artificial intelligence (AI) will increase inequality, according to leading economists. The survey, released by the World Economic Forum (WEF) on Monday before its annual meeting in the Swiss resort of Davos, weighed the analysis of 60-plus chief economists from both the private and public sectors. More than half of the economists surveyed (56 percent) predict weakened global economic conditions but with differences across regions. The majority foresee moderate or stronger growth in China and the United States, weak or very weak growth in Europe, and at least moderate growth in South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific. "While technological advances may give new impetus to global productivity, policies that enhance good-quality growth are needed to revive global momentum and balance the impact across the income groups," the survey stated.

Artificial intelligence refers to the development of computer systems that can perform tasks that typically require human intelligence, such as learning, problem-solving, perception, and decision-making.

We have also seen that despite the discrepancies between countries from North to South, to Western countries to Eastern countries, there is a domino effect according to which major ethical issues and tendencies are almost simultaneously faced by every country at the same time, whatever their place in the AI race. It was the case for the AI tracking applications and the facial recognition applications during #COVID-19, and it will probably continue because AI is questioning the equilibrium of geopolitics worldwide. It also questions our ability to face fundamental and crucial questions as of the future of multilateralism. Below the translation of an article published in January, 2021 that highlights some trends I have foreseen in December 2020 for AI globally with some insights on the French market. Carrying out a prospective exercise is never easy and is even less so in the current context, which reminds us of the impermanence of all things and the need to adapt with agility, both individually and collectively, while keeping a long-term vision and without giving in to the call of falsely obvious and short-term choices.

The algorithmic revolution is here, and nations are losing control of not only their understanding of the potential impact of artificial intelligence but also the governance model that enforced accountability on the advances in science and technology over the years at all levels. While each new technology innovation claims its territory for the economic advances in the human ecosystem with significant ramifications across cyberspace, geospace and/or space (CGS), the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has not only undermined governance, management, and growth models, but it has also broken all barriers to boundaries defined by human decision makers. In addition, it is both blurring the boundaries between human intelligence and machine intelligence, and the boundaries between man and machine and real and fake. As a result, the power dynamics are shifting away from the select few across nations (and is moving away from humans entirely to algorithms)--re-defining the criteria upon which geopolitics was framed--and thereby threatening the foundations of global peace and security. Since the beginning of the technological age, each new idea, innovation, and invention has helped humans across nations usher in a new era of economic growth, changing the fundamentals of respective nations and their security.

Something stood out of the ordinary during a speech by China's president, Xi Jinping, in January 2018. Behind Xi, on a bookshelf, were two books on artificial intelligence (AI). Why were those books there? Similar to 2015, when Russia "accidentally" aired designs for a new weapon, the placement of the books may not have been an accident. Was China sending a message?

The algorithmic revolution is here, and nations are losing control of not only their understanding of the potential impact of artificial intelligence, but also the governance model that enforced accountability on the advances in science and technology over the years at all levels. While each new technology innovation claims its territory for the economic advances in the human ecosystem with significant ramifications across cyberspace, geospace and/or space (CGS), the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has not only undermined governance, management and growth models, but it has also broken all barriers to boundaries defined by human decision makers. In addition, it is both blurring the boundaries between human intelligence and machine intelligence, and the boundaries between man and machine and real and fake. As a result, the power dynamics is shifting away from the select few across nations (and is moving away from humans entirely to algorithms)--re-defining the criteria upon which geopolitics was framed--and thereby threatening the foundations of global peace and security. Since the beginning of the technological age, each new idea, innovation and invention has helped humans across nations usher in a new era of economic growth, changing the fundamentals of respective nations and their security.

The algorithmic revolution is here, and nations are losing control of not only their understanding of the potential impact of artificial intelligence, but also the governance model that enforced accountability on the advances in science and technology over the years at all levels. While each new technology innovation claims its territory for the economic advances in the human ecosystem with significant ramifications across cyberspace, geospace and/or space (CGS), the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has not only undermined governance, management and growth models, but it has also broken all barriers to boundaries defined by human decision makers. In addition, it is both blurring the boundaries between human intelligence and machine intelligence, and the boundaries between man and machine and real and fake. As a result, the power dynamics is shifting away from the select few across nations (and is moving away from humans entirely to algorithms)--re-defining the criteria upon which geopolitics was framed--and thereby threatening the foundations of global peace and security. Since the beginning of the technological age, each new idea, innovation and invention has helped humans across nations usher in a new era of economic growth, changing the fundamentals of respective nations and their security.

Abishur Prakash is a geopolitical futurist focused on how new technologies, such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, gene editing, virtual reality, and more, will transform geopolitics. He works at Center for Innovating the Future, a strategy innovation lab based in Toronto. Prakash is the author of Next Geopolitics: The Future of World Affairs (Technology) Vols. 1 and 2, and of the forthcoming book, Go.AI (Geopolitics of Artificial Intelligence). He speaks regularly at public and private events on the geopolitics of technology and its implications for countries and companies.