Uncertainty quantification is essential in safety-critical settings--from autonomous driving to aviation, finance, and health--where decisions must rely on conservative bounds rather than point estimates. Predictor-level intervals (e.g., from quantile regression, conformal prediction, variance networks, or Bayesian models) generally do not compose: adding two per-variable intervals need not yield a valid interval for their sum or preserve coverage. In aviation, Gaussian overbounding replaces complex error distributions with a conservative Gaussian whose tails dominate the truth, so conservatism propagates through linear operations. Yet classical overbounds are global, often overly conservative, and hard to adapt to feature-conditioned errors. We propose a unified learning framework that trains neural networks to produce context-aware Gaussian overbounds--mean and scale--with provable conservatism on a finite quantile grid and, under three explicit regularity assumptions, continuous-tail conservatism on a certified interval. Our overbounding loss enforces conservativeness at selected quantiles while penalizing distributional distance with a Wasserstein-style term. The learned bounds support conservative linear-combination and convolution analysis on the enforced grid, and on the certified interval when assumptions hold, while being less redundant than traditional methods. We provide a scoped analysis of discrete-to-continuous conservatism and compact-domain objective regularity, and validate on synthetic data and real-world datasets, including multipath, ionospheric, and tropospheric residual errors. Across these settings, the method yields tighter bounds while maintaining conservatism on the enforced grid and in experiments. The framework is modality-agnostic and applicable to learning systems that require conservative, feature-conditioned uncertainty estimates in dynamic environments.

The validity of statistical inference depends critically on how data are collected. When data gathered through active data collection (ADC) are reused for a post-hoc inferential task, conventional inference can fail because the sampling is adaptively biased toward regions favored by the collection strategy. This issue is especially pronounced in black-box optimization, where sequential model-based optimization (SMBO) methods such as the tree-structured Parzen estimator (TPE) and Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) preferentially concentrate evaluations in promising regions. We study statistical inference on actively collected data when the inferential target is constructed in a data-dependent manner after data collection. To enable valid inference in this setting, we propose post-ADC inference, a framework that accounts for the biases arising from both the active data collection process and the subsequent data-driven target construction. Our method builds on selective inference and provides valid $p$-values and confidence intervals that correct for both sources of bias. The framework applies to a broad class of ADC processes by imposing only assumptions on the observation noise, without requiring any assumptions on the underlying black-box function or the surrogate model used by the SMBO algorithm. Empirical results also show that post-ADC inference provides valid inference for data collected by GP-UCB and TPE.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Understanding when neural networks can be learned efficiently is a fundamental question in learning theory. Existing hardness results suggest that assumptions on both the input distribution and the network's weights are necessary for obtaining efficient algorithms. Moreover, it was previously shown that depth-2 networks can be efficiently learned under the assumptions that the input distribution is Gaussian, and the weight matrix is non-degenerate. In this work, we study whether such assumptions may suffice for learning deeper networks and prove negative results. We show that learning depth-3 ReLU networks under the Gaussian input distribution is hard even in the smoothed-analysis framework, where a random noise is added to the network's parameters. It implies that learning depth-3 ReLU networks under the Gaussian distribution is hard even if the weight matrices are non-degenerate. Moreover, we consider depth-2networks, and show hardness of learning in the smoothed-analysis framework, where both the network parameters and the input distribution are smoothed. Our hardness results are under a wellstudied assumption on the existence of local pseudorandom generators.

Cross-Entropy Method (CEM) is commonly used for planning in model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) where a centralized approach is typically utilized to update the sampling distribution based on only the top-k operations' results on samples. In this paper, we show that such a centralized approach makes CEM vulnerable to local optima, thus impairing its sample efficiency. To tackle this issue, we propose Decentralized CEM (DecentCEM), a simple but effective improvement over classical CEM, by using an ensemble of CEM instances running independently from one another, and each performing a local improvement of its own sampling distribution. We provide both theoretical and empirical analysis to demonstrate the effectiveness of this simple decentralized approach. We empirically show that, compared to the classical centralized approach using either a single or even a mixture of Gaussian distributions, our DecentCEM finds the global optimum much more consistently thus improves the sample efficiency. Furthermore, we plug in our DecentCEM in the planning problem of MBRL, and evaluate our approach in several continuous control environments, with comparison to the stateof-art CEM based MBRL approaches (PETS and POPLIN). Results show sample efficiency improvement by simply replacing the classical CEM module with our DecentCEM module, while only sacrificing a reasonable amount of computational cost. Lastly, we conduct ablation studies for more in-depth analysis.