Accurate prediction of road user movement is increasingly required by many applications ranging from advanced driver assistance systems to autonomous driving, and especially crucial for road safety. Even though most traffic accident fatalities account to bicycles, they have received little attention, as previous work focused mainly on pedestrians and motorized vehicles. In this work, we present the Great GATsBi, a domain-knowledge-based, hybrid, multimodal trajectory prediction framework for bicycles. The model incorporates both physics-based modeling (inspired by motorized vehicles) and social-based modeling (inspired by pedestrian movements) to explicitly account for the dual nature of bicycle movement. The social interactions are modeled with a graph attention network, and include decayed historical, but also anticipated, future trajectory data of a bicycles neighborhood, following recent insights from psychological and social studies. The results indicate that the proposed ensemble of physics models -- performing well in the short-term predictions -- and social models -- performing well in the long-term predictions -- exceeds state-of-the-art performance. We also conducted a controlled mass-cycling experiment to demonstrate the framework's performance when forecasting bicycle trajectories and modeling social interactions with road users.

We present a generative modeling approach based on the variational inference framework for likelihood-free simulation-based inference. The method leverages latent variables within variational autoencoders to efficiently estimate complex posterior distributions arising from stochastic simulations. We explore two variations of this approach distinguished by their treatment of the prior distribution. The first model adapts the prior based on observed data using a multivariate prior network, enhancing generalization across various posterior queries. In contrast, the second model utilizes a standard Gaussian prior, offering simplicity while still effectively capturing complex posterior distributions. We demonstrate the efficacy of these models on well-established benchmark problems, achieving results comparable to flow-based approaches while maintaining computational efficiency and scalability.

We study the problem of visual surface inspection of infrastructure for defects using an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). We do not assume that the geometric model of the infrastructure is known beforehand. Our planner, termed GATSBI, plans a path in a receding horizon fashion to inspect all points on the surface of the infrastructure. The input to GATSBI consists of a 3D occupancy map created online with 3D pointclouds. Occupied voxels corresponding to the infrastructure in this map are semantically segmented and used to create an infrastructure-only occupancy map. Inspecting an infrastructure voxel requires the UAV to take images from a desired viewing angle and distance. We then create a Generalized Traveling Salesperson Problem (GTSP) instance to cluster candidate viewpoints for inspecting the infrastructure voxels and use an off-the-shelf GTSP solver to find the optimal path for the given instance. As the algorithm sees more parts of the environment over time, it replans the path to inspect uninspected parts of the infrastructure while avoiding obstacles. We evaluate the performance of our algorithm through high-fidelity simulations conducted in AirSim and real-world experiments. We compare the performance of GATSBI with a baseline inspection algorithm where the map is known a priori. Our evaluation reveals that targeting the inspection to only the segmented infrastructure voxels and planning carefully using a GTSP solver leads to a more efficient and thorough inspection than the baseline inspection algorithm.

We study the problem of visual surface inspection of a bridge for defects using an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). We do not assume that the geometric model of the bridge is known beforehand. Our planner, termed GATSBI, plans a path in a receding horizon fashion to inspect all points on the surface of the bridge. The input to GATSBI consists of a 3D occupancy map created online with LiDAR scans. Occupied voxels corresponding to the bridge in this map are semantically segmented and used to create a bridge-only occupancy map. Inspecting a bridge voxel requires the UAV to take images from a desired viewing angle and distance. We then create a Generalized Traveling Salesperson Problem (GTSP) instance to cluster candidate viewpoints for inspecting the bridge voxels and use an off-the-shelf GTSP solver to find the optimal path for the given instance. As the algorithm sees more parts of the environment over time, it replans the path to inspect novel parts of the bridge while avoiding obstacles. We evaluate the performance of our algorithm through high-fidelity simulations conducted in AirSim and real-world experiments. We compare the performance of GATSBI with a classical exploration algorithm. Our evaluation reveals that targeting the inspection to only the segmented bridge voxels and planning carefully using a GTSP solver leads to a more efficient and thorough inspection than the baseline algorithm.

Simulation-based inference (SBI) refers to statistical inference on stochastic models for which we can generate samples, but not compute likelihoods. Like SBI algorithms, generative adversarial networks (GANs) do not require explicit likelihoods. We study the relationship between SBI and GANs, and introduce GATSBI, an adversarial approach to SBI. GATSBI reformulates the variational objective in an adversarial setting to learn implicit posterior distributions. Inference with GATSBI is amortised across observations, works in high-dimensional posterior spaces and supports implicit priors. We evaluate GATSBI on two SBI benchmark problems and on two high-dimensional simulators. On a model for wave propagation on the surface of a shallow water body, we show that GATSBI can return well-calibrated posterior estimates even in high dimensions. On a model of camera optics, it infers a high-dimensional posterior given an implicit prior, and performs better than a state-of-the-art SBI approach. We also show how GATSBI can be extended to perform sequential posterior estimation to focus on individual observations. Overall, GATSBI opens up opportunities for leveraging advances in GANs to perform Bayesian inference on high-dimensional simulation-based models.