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G-Transformer: Counterfactual Outcome Prediction under Dynamic and Time-varying Treatment Regimes

Xiong, Hong, Wu, Feng, Deng, Leon, Su, Megan, Lehman, Li-wei H

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the context of medical decision making, counterfactual prediction enables clinicians to predict treatment outcomes of interest under alternative courses of therapeutic actions given observed patient history. Prior machine learning approaches for counterfactual predictions under time-varying treatments focus on static time-varying treatment regimes where treatments do not depend on previous covariate history. In this work, we present G-Transformer, a Transformer-based framework supporting g-computation for counterfactual prediction under dynamic and time-varying treatment strategies. G-Transfomer captures complex, long-range dependencies in time-varying covariates using a Transformer architecture. G-Transformer estimates the conditional distribution of relevant covariates given covariate and treatment history at each time point using an encoder architecture, then produces Monte Carlo estimates of counterfactual outcomes by simulating forward patient trajectories under treatment strategies of interest. We evaluate G-Transformer extensively using two simulated longitudinal datasets from mechanistic models, and a real-world sepsis ICU dataset from MIMIC-IV. G-Transformer outperforms both classical and state-of-the-art counterfactual prediction models in these settings. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first Transformer-based architecture for counterfactual outcome prediction under dynamic and time-varying treatment strategies.


Non-Autoregressive Document-Level Machine Translation

Bao, Guangsheng, Teng, Zhiyang, Zhou, Hao, Yan, Jianhao, Zhang, Yue

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Non-autoregressive translation (NAT) models achieve comparable performance and superior speed compared to auto-regressive translation (AT) models in the context of sentence-level machine translation (MT). However, their abilities are unexplored in document-level MT, hindering their usage in real scenarios. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive examination of typical NAT models in the context of document-level MT and further propose a simple but effective design of sentence alignment between source and target. Experiments show that NAT models achieve high acceleration on documents, and sentence alignment significantly enhances their performance. However, current NAT models still have a significant performance gap compared to their AT counterparts. Further investigation reveals that NAT models suffer more from the multi-modality and misalignment issues in the context of document-level MT, and current NAT models struggle with exploiting document context and handling discourse phenomena. We delve into these challenges and provide our code at \url{https://github.com/baoguangsheng/nat-on-doc}.


Target-Side Augmentation for Document-Level Machine Translation

Bao, Guangsheng, Teng, Zhiyang, Zhang, Yue

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Document-level machine translation faces the challenge of data sparsity due to its long input length and a small amount of training data, increasing the risk of learning spurious patterns. To address this challenge, we propose a target-side augmentation method, introducing a data augmentation (DA) model to generate many potential translations for each source document. Learning on these wider range translations, an MT model can learn a smoothed distribution, thereby reducing the risk of data sparsity. We demonstrate that the DA model, which estimates the posterior distribution, largely improves the MT performance, outperforming the previous best system by 2.30 s-BLEU on News and achieving new state-of-the-art on News and Europarl benchmarks. Our code is available at https://github.com/baoguangsheng/target-side-augmentation.


Exploring Paracrawl for Document-level Neural Machine Translation

Ghussin, Yusser Al, Zhang, Jingyi, van Genabith, Josef

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Document-level neural machine translation (NMT) has outperformed sentence-level NMT on a number of datasets. However, document-level NMT is still not widely adopted in real-world translation systems mainly due to the lack of large-scale general-domain training data for document-level NMT. We examine the effectiveness of using Paracrawl for learning document-level translation. Paracrawl is a large-scale parallel corpus crawled from the Internet and contains data from various domains. The official Paracrawl corpus was released as parallel sentences (extracted from parallel webpages) and therefore previous works only used Paracrawl for learning sentence-level translation. In this work, we extract parallel paragraphs from Paracrawl parallel webpages using automatic sentence alignments and we use the extracted parallel paragraphs as parallel documents for training document-level translation models. We show that document-level NMT models trained with only parallel paragraphs from Paracrawl can be used to translate real documents from TED, News and Europarl, outperforming sentence-level NMT models. We also perform a targeted pronoun evaluation and show that document-level models trained with Paracrawl data can help context-aware pronoun translation.