future return
Being Considerate as a Pathway Towards Pluralistic Alignment for Agentic AI
Alamdari, Parand A., Klassen, Toryn Q., Icarte, Rodrigo Toro, McIlraith, Sheila A.
Pluralistic alignment is concerned with ensuring that an AI system's objectives and behaviors are in harmony with the diversity of human values and perspectives. In this paper we study the notion of pluralistic alignment in the context of agentic AI, and in particular in the context of an agent that is trying to learn a policy in a manner that is mindful of the values and perspective of others in the environment. To this end, we show how being considerate of the future wellbeing and agency of other (human) agents can promote a form of pluralistic alignment.
CrystalBox: Future-Based Explanations for Input-Driven Deep RL Systems
Patel, Sagar, Jyothi, Sangeetha Abdu, Narodytska, Nina
We present CrystalBox, a novel, model-agnostic, posthoc explainability framework for Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) controllers in the large family of input-driven environments which includes computer systems. We combine the natural decomposability of reward functions in input-driven environments with the explanatory power of decomposed returns. We propose an efficient algorithm to generate future-based explanations across both discrete and continuous control environments. Using applications such as adaptive bitrate streaming and congestion control, we demonstrate CrystalBox's capability to generate high-fidelity explanations. We further illustrate its higher utility across three practical use cases: contrastive explanations, network observability, and guided reward design, as opposed to prior explainability techniques that identify salient features.
Optimal Execution Using Reinforcement Learning
Zheng, Cong, He, Jiafa, Yang, Can
This work is about optimal order execution, where a large order is split into several small orders to maximize the implementation shortfall. Based on the diversity of cryptocurrency exchanges, we attempt to extract cross-exchange signals by aligning data from multiple exchanges for the first time. Unlike most previous studies that focused on using single-exchange information, we discuss the impact of cross-exchange signals on the agent's decision-making in the optimal execution problem. Experimental results show that cross-exchange signals can provide additional information for the optimal execution of cryptocurrency to facilitate the optimal execution process.
Multi-Task Learning for Stock Selection
Artificial Neural Networks can be used to predict future returns of stocks in order to take financial decisions . Should one build a separate network for each stock or share the same network for all the stocks? In this paper we also explore other alternatives, in which some layers are shared and others are not shared. When the prediction of future returns for different stocks are viewed as different tasks, sharing some parameters across stocks is a form of multi-task learning. In a series of experiments with Canadian stocks, we obtain yearly returns that are more than 14% above various benchmarks.
Guiding Online Reinforcement Learning with Action-Free Offline Pretraining
Zhu, Deyao, Wang, Yuhui, Schmidhuber, Jürgen, Elhoseiny, Mohamed
Offline RL methods have been shown to reduce the need for environment interaction by training agents using offline collected episodes. However, these methods typically require action information to be logged during data collection, which can be difficult or even impossible in some practical cases. In this paper, we investigate the potential of using action-free offline datasets to improve online reinforcement learning, name this problem Reinforcement Learning with Action-Free Offline Pretraining (AFP-RL). We introduce Action-Free Guide (AF-Guide), a method that guides online training by extracting knowledge from action-free offline datasets. AF-Guide consists of an Action-Free Decision Transformer (AFDT) implementing a variant of Upside-Down Reinforcement Learning. It learns to plan the next states from the offline dataset, and a Guided Soft Actor-Critic (Guided SAC) that learns online with guidance from AFDT. Experimental results show that AF-Guide can improve sample efficiency and performance in online training thanks to the knowledge from the action-free offline dataset. Code is available at https://github.com/Vision-CAIR/AF-Guide.
Monte Carlo Tree Search Algorithms for Risk-Aware and Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning
Hayes, Conor F., Reymond, Mathieu, Roijers, Diederik M., Howley, Enda, Mannion, Patrick
In many risk-aware and multi-objective reinforcement learning settings, the utility of the user is derived from a single execution of a policy. In these settings, making decisions based on the average future returns is not suitable. For example, in a medical setting a patient may only have one opportunity to treat their illness. Making decisions using just the expected future returns -- known in reinforcement learning as the value -- cannot account for the potential range of adverse or positive outcomes a decision may have. Therefore, we should use the distribution over expected future returns differently to represent the critical information that the agent requires at decision time by taking both the future and accrued returns into consideration. In this paper, we propose two novel Monte Carlo tree search algorithms. Firstly, we present a Monte Carlo tree search algorithm that can compute policies for nonlinear utility functions (NLU-MCTS) by optimising the utility of the different possible returns attainable from individual policy executions, resulting in good policies for both risk-aware and multi-objective settings. Secondly, we propose a distributional Monte Carlo tree search algorithm (DMCTS) which extends NLU-MCTS. DMCTS computes an approximate posterior distribution over the utility of the returns, and utilises Thompson sampling during planning to compute policies in risk-aware and multi-objective settings. Both algorithms outperform the state-of-the-art in multi-objective reinforcement learning for the expected utility of the returns.
Standout Research in Artificial Intelligence part1(2022)
Abstract: One of the grand challenges of reinforcement learning is the ability to generalize to new tasks. However, general agents require a set of rich, diverse tasks to train on. Designing a'foundation environment' for such tasks is tricky -- the ideal envi- ronment would support a range of emergent phenomena, an expressive task space, and fast runtime. To take a step towards addressing this research bottleneck, this work presents Powderworld, a lightweight yet expressive simulation environment running directly on the GPU. Within Powderworld, two motivating challenges distributions are presented, one for world-modelling and one for reinforcement learning.
Be Considerate: Objectives, Side Effects, and Deciding How to Act
Alamdari, Parand Alizadeh, Klassen, Toryn Q., Icarte, Rodrigo Toro, McIlraith, Sheila A.
Recent work in AI safety has highlighted that in sequential decision making, objectives are often underspecified or incomplete. This gives discretion to the acting agent to realize the stated objective in ways that may result in undesirable outcomes. We contend that to learn to act safely, a reinforcement learning (RL) agent should include contemplation of the impact of its actions on the wellbeing and agency of others in the environment, including other acting agents and reactive processes. We endow RL agents with the ability to contemplate such impact by augmenting their reward based on expectation of future return by others in the environment, providing different criteria for characterizing impact. We further endow these agents with the ability to differentially factor this impact into their decision making, manifesting behavior that ranges from self-centred to self-less, as demonstrated by experiments in gridworld environments.
Risk Aware and Multi-Objective Decision Making with Distributional Monte Carlo Tree Search
Hayes, Conor F., Reymond, Mathieu, Roijers, Diederik M., Howley, Enda, Mannion, Patrick
In many risk-aware and multi-objective reinforcement learning settings, the utility of the user is derived from the single execution of a policy. In these settings, making decisions based on the average future returns is not suitable. For example, in a medical setting a patient may only have one opportunity to treat their illness. When making a decision, just the expected return -- known in reinforcement learning as the value -- cannot account for the potential range of adverse or positive outcomes a decision may have. Our key insight is that we should use the distribution over expected future returns differently to represent the critical information that the agent requires at decision time. In this paper, we propose Distributional Monte Carlo Tree Search, an algorithm that learns a posterior distribution over the utility of the different possible returns attainable from individual policy executions, resulting in good policies for both risk-aware and multi-objective settings. Moreover, our algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art in multi-objective reinforcement learning for the expected utility of the returns.
Unique Approach to Analysts Consensus Sentiment Utilizing Dynamic Machine Learning Training - Lucena Research
Many hedge funds that have enjoyed substantial gains betting against the market in March have reversed those gains, and some have even suffered additional losses due to asset class rotation. In particular, some of the more beaten down stocks – cruise lines, airlines, and energy for example – have now come roaring back on the premise that the COVID-19 crisis is subsiding, although fundamentally their dire state has not changed. Truth be told, no single model remains relevant forever. The only way to drive sustainable returns is to have an agile AI infrastructure that can respond algorithmically to changes and exploit opportunities in any market. In today's writeup, I wanted to feature one of our best performing strategies year to date.