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Practical do-Shapley Explanations with Estimand-Agnostic Causal Inference

Neural Information Processing Systems

Among explainability techniques, SHAP stands out as one of the most popular, but often overlooks the causal structure of the problem. In response, do-SHAP employs interventional queries, but its reliance on estimands hinders its practical application. To address this problem, we propose the use of estimand-agnostic approaches, which allow for the estimation of any identifiable query from a single model, making do-SHAP feasible on complex graphs. We also develop a novel algorithm to significantly accelerate its computation at a negligible cost, as well as a method to explain inaccessible Data Generating Processes. We demonstrate the estimation and computational performance of our approach, and validate it on two real-world datasets, highlighting its potential in obtaining reliable explanations.


Nemotron-Flash: Towards Latency-Optimal Hybrid Small Language Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Efficient deployment of small language models (SLMs) is essential for numerous real-world applications with stringent latency constraints.While previous work on SLM design has primarily focused on reducing the number of parameters to achieve parameter-optimal SLMs, parameter efficiency does not necessarily translate into proportional real-device speed-ups. This work aims to identify the key determinants of SLMs' real-device latency and offer generalizable principles and methodologies for SLM design and training when real-device latency is the primary consideration. Specifically, we identify two central architectural factors: depth-width ratios and operator choices. The former is crucial for small-batch-size latency, while the latter affects both latency and large-batch-size throughput. In light of this, we first study latency-optimal depth-width ratios, with the key finding that although deep-thin models generally achieve better accuracy under the same parameter budget, they may not lie on the accuracy-latency trade-off frontier.


BeliefMapNav: 3DVoxel-Based Belief Map for Zero-Shot Object Navigation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Zero-shot object navigation (ZSON) allows robots to find target objects in unfamiliar environments using natural language instructions, without relying on pre-built maps or task-specific training. Recent general-purpose models, such as large language models (LLMs) and vision-language models (VLMs), equip agents with semantic reasoning abilities to estimate target object locations in a zero-shot manner. However, these models often greedily select the next goal without maintaining a global understanding of the environment and are fundamentally limited in the spatial reasoning necessary for effective navigation. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel 3D voxel-based belief map that estimates the target's prior presence distribution within a voxelized 3D space. This approach enables agents to integrate semantic priors from LLMs and visual embeddings with hierarchical spatial structure, alongside real-time observations, to build a comprehensive 3D global posterior belief of the target's location. Building on this 3D voxel map, we introduce BeliefMapNav, an efficient navigation system with two key advantages: i) grounding LLM semantic reasoning within the 3D hierarchical semantics voxel space for precise target position estimation, and ii) integrating sequential path planning to enable efficient global navigation decisions. Experiments on HM3D and HSSD benchmarks show that BeliefMapNav achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) Success Rate (SR) and Success weighted by Path Length (SPL), with a notable 9.7 SPL improvement over the previous best SR method, validating its effectiveness and efficiency.


Conformal Arbitrage: Risk-Controlled Balancing of Competing Objectives in Language Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Modern language-model deployments must often balance competing objectives--for example, helpfulness versus harmlessness, cost versus accuracy, and reward versus safety. We introduce Conformal Arbitrage, a post-hoc framework that learns a data-driven threshold to mediate between a Primary model optimized for a primary objective and a more conservative Guardian--which could be another model or a human domain expert--aligned with a guardrail objective. The threshold is calibrated with conformal risk control, yielding finite-sample, distribution-free guarantees that the long-run frequency of undesirable events (such as factual errors or safety violations) does not exceed a user-specified quota. Because Conformal Arbitrage operates wholly at the API level--without requiring access to model logits or updating model weights--it complements weight-based alignment techniques and integrates seamlessly with existing cost-aware cascades. Empirically, Conformal Arbitrage traces an efficient frontier, allowing users to define an acceptable performance level for one objective while maximizing utility in another. We observe that our method outperforms (in terms of accuracy on multiple-choice style questions) cost-matched random routing between models. These properties make Conformal Arbitrage a practical, theoretically grounded tool for trustworthy and economical deployment of large language models across a broad range of potentially competing objectives.


Inference-Time Hyper-Scaling with KVCache Compression

Neural Information Processing Systems

Inference-time scaling trades efficiency for increased reasoning accuracy by generating longer or more parallel sequences. However, in Transformer LLMs, generation cost is bottlenecked by the size of the key-value (KV) cache, rather than the number of generated tokens. Hence, we explore inference-time hyper-scaling: by compressing the KV cache, we can generate more tokens within the same compute budget and further improve the accuracy of scaled inference. The success of this approach, however, hinges on the ability of compression methods to preserve accuracy even at high compression ratios. To make hyper-scaling practical, we introduce Dynamic Memory Sparsification (DMS), a novel method for sparsifying KV caches that only requires 1K training steps to achieve 8 compression, while maintaining better accuracy than training-free sparse attention.


How Far Are We from Optimal Reasoning Efficiency?

Neural Information Processing Systems

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) demonstrate remarkable problem-solving capabilities through extended Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning but often produce excessively verbose and redundant reasoning traces.


Uniform Diffusion Models Revisited: Leave-One-Out Denoiser and Absorbing State Reformulation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Discrete diffusion models are often trained through clean-data prediction, but the prediction can be used in different ways to define the reverse dynamics. In Masked Diffusion Models (MDM) these choices largely coincide, whereas in Uniform Diffusion Models (UDM) they do not. We show that the standard plug-in bridge parameterization for UDM is not optimized by the denoising posterior, but by a leave-one-out posterior that predicts each clean token without using its own noisy observation. This identifies a mismatch between the plug-in ELBO and the usual cross-entropy denoising objective. We characterize the leave-one-out target and derive exact conversions between the denoiser, the leave-one-out posterior, and the score. These conversions allow us to disentangle parameterization and training objective. Our results also lead to inference improvements without any additional training through an informed predictor-corrector sampler and improved temperature sampling based on the leave-one-out predictor. We further introduce an absorbing-state reformulation of uniform diffusion that preserves the UDM joint law while decomposing it into masked-diffusion-like sampling operations, with simpler denoising posteriors, carry-over unmasking, and a natural remasking mechanism. On language modeling, leave-one-out parameterizations consistently improve UDM generation, while the absorbing construction matches or surpasses masked diffusion. These results suggest that the empirical gap between masked and uniform diffusion is driven less by the choice of marginals themselves than by parameterization and sampling design. The code and models can be found at https://github.com/samsongourevitch/rev_udm.


A Differentiable Bayesian Relaxation for Latent Partial-Order Inference

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Rank-data and action-trace datasets are typically recorded as linear sequences, although the constraints governing valid outcomes are often only partially ordered. These constraints may be temporal or process-based [24, 23, 16], causal [5], or dominance-based [28], and are usually not observed directly. Inferring them is important because they encode interpretable structure and support feasibility evaluation on new sequences. In these settings, however, the underlying relation is often incomplete: the latent structure is a partial order, or poset, in which pairs of items that can occur in either order have no precedence relation. Consequently, an observed order need not imply a true prerequisite relation; it may reflect scheduling, logging, or a single valid linearization of the latent partial order. Treating all observed precedences as real can therefore produce overly sequential and unrealistic structures, especially in workflow or LLM-agent settings where unnecessary ordering induces extra execution steps and compute.


CASP: Support-Aware Offline Policy Selection for Two-Stage Recommender Systems

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Two-stage recommender systems first choose a candidate generator and then rank items within the generated set. Because the generator decides which items are available to the ranker, changing the generator changes both the policy value and the data support used to estimate that value. This creates an offline selection problem that standard single-stage objectives do not capture: a policy may look good under a retrieval score or a raw off-policy value estimate, but still be unreliable if it depends on weakly supported generator-item pairs. We propose CASP (Coupled Action-Set Pessimism), a support-aware offline selector for finite libraries of two-stage recommender policies. CASP combines doubly robust value estimation with a support-burden penalty. We show that stagewise rules that ignore downstream continuation value can be arbitrarily suboptimal, and we derive population, finite-class, and reconstructed-propensity guarantees for conservative selection. In simulations and a reconstructed MovieLens 1M application, CASP selects lower-burden policies when estimated value and support credibility are in tension.