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Bayesian Factorised Granger-Causal Graphs For Multivariate Time-series Data
We study the problem of automatically discovering Granger causal relations from observational multivariate time-series data. Vector autoregressive (VAR) models have been time-tested for this problem, including Bayesian variants and more recent developments using deep neural networks. Most existing VAR methods for Granger causality use sparsity-inducing penalties/priors or post-hoc thresholds to interpret their coefficients as Granger causal graphs. Instead, we propose a new Bayesian VAR model with a hierarchical graph prior over binary Granger causal graphs, separately from the VAR coefficients. We develop an efficient algorithm to infer the posterior over binary Granger causal graphs. Our method provides better uncertainty quantification, has less hyperparameters, and achieves better performance than competing approaches, especially on sparse multivariate time-series data.
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- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning > Uncertainty > Bayesian Inference (1.00)
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- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Learning Graphical Models > Directed Networks > Bayesian Learning (1.00)
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Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) taught artificial intelligence to encrypt messages on its own
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