Optimizing LLM-based workflows is typically formulated as a global search, where candidate workflows are evaluated based on a scalar metric. This paradigm, however, suffers from a critical flaw: information collapse. By reducing rich, multi-step execution traces to simple success/failure signals, existing methods are rendered blind to the underlying structure of failures, fundamentally preventing them from modeling the workflow's failure distribution. We reconceptualize this challenge as a distributional problem. We propose a new paradigm where the optimization goal is not to maximize a scalar score, but to directly minimize a workflow's Expected Failure Mass, i.e., the integral of its failure probability density function defined over a high-dimensional Failure Signature Space (FSS). This distributional lens allows us to move from inefficient, zero-order optimization to a principled, gradient-like descent on the failure landscape itself. We introduce CE-Graph, a framework that operationalizes this paradigm through a novel, failure-driven refinement process. CE-Graph approximates the failure distribution from a pool of counterexamples, identifies its densest regions as recurring failure modes, and applies targeted, operator-constrained graph edits via a Propose-and-Verify mechanism to greedily reduce the failure mass. On math, code, and QA benchmarks, our CE-Graph achieves higher robustness at a significantly lower cost than strong baselines. This suggests that a system's reliability emerges not from avoiding failures, but from systematically learning and reshaping the geometric structure of its failure distributions.

Safety validation of autonomous driving systems is extremely challenging due to the high risks and costs of real-world testing as well as the rarity and diversity of potential failures. To address these challenges, we train a denoising diffusion model to generate potential failure cases of an autonomous vehicle given any initial traffic state. Experiments on a four-way intersection problem show that in a variety of scenarios, the diffusion model can generate realistic failure samples while capturing a wide variety of potential failures. Our model does not require any external training dataset, can perform training and inference with modest computing resources, and does not assume any prior knowledge of the system under test, with applicability to safety validation for traffic intersections.

--Importance sampling is a Monte Carlo technique for efficiently estimating the likelihood of rare events by biasing the sampling distribution towards the rare event of interest. By drawing weighted samples from a learned proposal distribution, importance sampling allows for more sample-efficient estimation of rare events or tails of distributions. A common choice of proposal density is a Gaussian mixture model (GMM). However, estimating full-rank GMM covariance matrices in high dimensions is a challenging task due to numerical instabilities. In this work, we propose using mixtures of probabilistic principal component analyzers (MPPCA) as the parametric proposal density for importance sampling methods. MPPCA models are a type of low-rank mixture model that can be fit quickly using expectation-maximization, even in high-dimensional spaces.

Estimating the probability of failure is a critical step in developing safety-critical autonomous systems. Direct estimation methods such as Monte Carlo sampling are often impractical due to the rarity of failures in these systems. Existing importance sampling approaches do not scale to sequential decision-making systems with large state spaces and long horizons. We propose an adaptive importance sampling algorithm to address these limitations. Our method minimizes the forward Kullback-Leibler divergence between a state-dependent proposal distribution and a relaxed form of the optimal importance sampling distribution. Our method uses Markov score ascent methods to estimate this objective. We evaluate our approach on four sequential systems and show that it provides more accurate failure probability estimates than baseline Monte Carlo and importance sampling techniques. This work is open sourced.

Validating safety-critical autonomous systems in high-dimensional domains such as robotics presents a significant challenge. Existing black-box approaches based on Markov chain Monte Carlo may require an enormous number of samples, while methods based on importance sampling often rely on simple parametric families that may struggle to represent the distribution over failures. We propose to sample the distribution over failures using a conditional denoising diffusion model, which has shown success in complex high-dimensional problems such as robotic task planning. We iteratively train a diffusion model to produce state trajectories closer to failure. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on high-dimensional robotic validation tasks, improving sample efficiency and mode coverage compared to existing black-box techniques.

Being able to efficiently obtain an accurate estimate of the failure probability of SRAM components has become a central issue as model circuits shrink their scale to submicrometer with advanced technology nodes. In this work, we revisit the classic norm minimization method. We then generalize it with infinite components and derive the novel optimal manifold concept, which bridges the surrogate-based and importance sampling (IS) yield estimation methods. We then derive a sub-optimal manifold, optimal hypersphere, which leads to an efficient sampling method being aware of the failure boundary called onion sampling. Finally, we use a neural coupling flow (which learns from samples like a surrogate model) as the IS proposal distribution. These combinations give rise to a novel yield estimation method, named Optimal Manifold Important Sampling (OPTIMIS), which keeps the advantages of the surrogate and IS methods to deliver state-of-the-art performance with robustness and consistency, with up to 3.5x in efficiency and 3x in accuracy over the best of SOTA methods in High-dimensional SRAM evaluation.