British Police Built a Sprawling Crime-Prediction Machine. Some Results Couldn't Be Trusted As UK police embrace the AI revolution, a WIRED investigation reveals the messy inside story of one region's experiment with predictive analytics. The Think Family Database holds records on close to half a million people who live in the city of Bristol, England. For many years, few of them knew anything about it. Launched in 2016 by the Bristol City Council and the regional Avon and Somerset Police, the database has stored all manner of sensitive information--police intelligence reports, housing status, mental health records, teenage pregnancies, enrollment in parenting courses, free school meals. On top of this sensitive data, officials built machine-learning models to assign scores to thousands of adults and children. They hoped to build what they called a "picture of threat, harm, and risk" in the region. At an event in early 2022 to help officials tackle child exploitation crimes, one police data scientist described part of the approach this way: "I essentially dump all that data in a big bucket and stir it with a data-science spatula, and we come out with a lovely risk score for everybody." This risk scoring inside the Think Family Database was just one part of Avon and Somerset Police's sprawling predictive analytics program.

Large language model-assisted Evolutionary Search (LES) has emerged as a promising approach for Automated Algorithm Discovery (AAD). While many evolutionary search strategies have been developed for classic optimization problems, LES operates in abstract language spaces, presenting unique challenges for applying these strategies effectively. To address this, we propose a general LES framework that incorporates feature-assisted niche construction within abstract search spaces, enabling the seamless integration of niche-based search strategies from evolutionary computation. Building on this framework, we introduce PartEvo (Partition to Evolve), an LES method that combines niche collaborative search and advanced prompting strategies to improve algorithm discovery efficiency. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world optimization problems show that PartEvo outperforms human-designed baselines and surpasses prior LES methods. In particular, on resource scheduling tasks, PartEvo generates meta-heuristics with low design costs, achieving up to 90.1% performance improvement over widely-used baseline algorithms, highlighting its potential for real-world applications.

We ask: when do Bayesian model averaging (BMA) weights over decision trees carry sufficient epistemic information to justify committed exploitation of the averaging distribution? We answer this question in closed form for Bayesian decision trees (BDTs) with Dirichlet-Multinomial leaf models and a Catalan-exponential tree-size prior (Schetinin&Jakaite, 2025), establishing a complete non-asymptotic theory of rational commitment thresholds.

Real-world multi-agent scenarios often involve mixed motives, demanding altruistic agents capable of self-protection against potential exploitation. However, existing approaches often struggle to achieve both objectives. In this paper, based on that empathic responses are modulated by learned social relationships between agents, we propose LASE (**L**earning to balance **A**ltruism and **S**elf-interest based on **E**mpathy), a distributed multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithm that fosters altruistic cooperation through gifting while avoiding exploitation by other agents in mixed-motive games. LASE allocates a portion of its rewards to co-players as gifts, with this allocation adapting dynamically based on the social relationship --- a metric evaluating the friendliness of co-players estimated by counterfactual reasoning. In particular, social relationship measures each co-player by comparing the estimated $Q$-function of current joint action to a counterfactual baseline which marginalizes the co-player's action, with its action distribution inferred by a perspective-taking module. Comprehensive experiments are performed in spatially and temporally extended mixed-motive games, demonstrating LASE's ability to promote group collaboration without compromising fairness and its capacity to adapt policies to various types of interactive co-players.

Bandit learning is characterized by the tension between long-term exploration and short-term exploitation. However, as has recently been noted, in settings in which the choices of the learning algorithm correspond to important decisions about individual people (such as criminal recidivism prediction, lending, and sequential drug trials), exploration corresponds to explicitly sacrificing the well-being of one individual for the potential future benefit of others. In such settings, one might like to run a ``greedy'' algorithm, which always makes the optimal decision for the individuals at hand --- but doing this can result in a catastrophic failure to learn. In this paper, we consider the linear contextual bandit problem and revisit the performance of the greedy algorithm. We give a smoothed analysis, showing that even when contexts may be chosen by an adversary, small perturbations of the adversary's choices suffice for the algorithm to achieve ``no regret'', perhaps (depending on the specifics of the setting) with a constant amount of initial training data. This suggests that in slightly perturbed environments, exploration and exploitation need not be in conflict in the linear setting.

In real-world sequential prediction scenarios, the features (or attributes) of examples are typically high-dimensional and construction of the all features for each example may be expensive or impossible.

In the current paper we relax the information structure of these classical frameworks by allowing arbitrary information arrivalprocesses.