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EXCON: Extreme Instance-based Contrastive Representation Learning of Severely Imbalanced Multivariate Time Series for Solar Flare Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In heliophysics research, predicting solar flares is crucial due to their potential to impact both space-based systems and Earth's infrastructure substantially. Magnetic field data from solar active regions, recorded by solar imaging observatories, are transformed into multivariate time series to enable solar flare prediction using temporal window-based analysis. In the realm of multivariate time series-driven solar flare prediction, addressing severe class imbalance with effective strategies for multivariate time series representation learning is key to developing robust predictive models. Traditional methods often struggle with overfitting to the majority class in prediction tasks where major solar flares are infrequent. This work presents EXCON, a contrastive representation learning framework designed to enhance classification performance amidst such imbalances. EXCON operates through four stages: obtaining core features from multivariate time series data; selecting distinctive contrastive representations for each class to maximize inter-class separation; training a temporal feature embedding module with a custom extreme reconstruction loss to minimize intra-class variation; and applying a classifier to the learned embeddings for robust classification. The proposed method leverages contrastive learning principles to map similar instances closer in the feature space while distancing dissimilar ones, a strategy not extensively explored in solar flare prediction tasks. This approach not only addresses class imbalance but also offers a versatile solution applicable to univariate and multivariate time series across binary and multiclass classification problems. Experimental results, including evaluations on the benchmark solar flare dataset and multiple time series archive datasets with binary and multiclass labels, demonstrate EXCON's efficacy in enhancing classification performance.


ExCon: Explanation-driven Supervised Contrastive Learning for Image Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Contrastive learning has led to substantial improvements in the quality of learned embedding representations for tasks such as image classification. However, a key drawback of existing contrastive augmentation methods is that they may lead to the modification of the image content which can yield undesired alterations of its semantics. This can affect the performance of the model on downstream tasks. Hence, in this paper, we ask whether we can augment image data in contrastive learning such that the task-relevant semantic content of an image is preserved. For this purpose, we propose to leverage saliency-based explanation methods to create content-preserving masked augmentations for contrastive learning. Our novel explanation-driven supervised contrastive learning (ExCon) methodology critically serves the dual goals of encouraging nearby image embeddings to have similar content and explanation. To quantify the impact of ExCon, we conduct experiments on the CIFAR-100 and the Tiny ImageNet datasets. We demonstrate that ExCon outperforms vanilla supervised contrastive learning in terms of classification, explanation quality, adversarial robustness as well as calibration of probabilistic predictions of the model in the context of distributional shift.