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A Mean Field Games Perspective on Evolutionary Clustering

Basti, Alessio, Camilli, Fabio, Festa, Adriano

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a control-theoretic framework for evolutionary clustering based on Mean Field Games (MFG). Moving beyond static or heuristic approaches, we formulate the problem as a population dynamics game governed by a coupled Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman and Fokker-Planck system. Driven by a variational cost functional rather than predefined statistical shapes, this continuous-time formulation provides a flexible basis for non-parametric cluster evolution. To validate the framework, we analyze the setting of time-dependent Gaussian mixtures, showing that the MFG dynamics recover the trajectories of the classical Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm while ensuring mass conservation. Furthermore, we introduce time-averaged log-likelihood functionals to regularize temporal fluctuations. Numerical experiments illustrate the stability of our approach and suggest a path toward more general non-parametric clustering applications where traditional EM methods may face limitations.


A Distribution-to-Distribution Neural Probabilistic Forecasting Framework for Dynamical Systems

Yang, Tianlin, Du, Hailiang, Aslett, Louis

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Probabilistic forecasting provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification in dynamical systems by representing predictions as probability distributions rather than deterministic trajectories. However, existing forecasting approaches, whether physics-based or neural-network-based, remain fundamentally trajectory-oriented: predictive distributions are usually accessed through ensembles or sampling, rather than evolved directly as dynamical objects. A distribution-to-distribution (D2D) neural probabilistic forecasting framework is developed to operate directly on predictive distributions. The framework introduces a distributional encoding and decoding structure around a replaceable neural forecasting module, using kernel mean embeddings to represent input distributions and mixture density networks to parameterise output predictive distributions. This design enables recursive propagation of predictive uncertainty within a unified end-to-end neural architecture, with model training and evaluation carried out directly in terms of probabilistic forecast skill. The framework is demonstrated on the Lorenz63 chaotic dynamical system. Results show that the D2D model captures nontrivial distributional evolution under nonlinear dynamics, produces skillful probabilistic forecasts without explicit ensemble simulation, and remains competitive with, and in some cases outperforms, a simplified perfect model benchmark. These findings point to a new paradigm for probabilistic forecasting, in which predictive distributions are learned and evolved directly rather than reconstructed indirectly through ensemble-based uncertainty propagation.


Continuous-Time Learning of Probability Distributions: A Case Study in a Digital Trial of Young Children with Type 1 Diabetes

Álvarez-López, Antonio, Matabuena, Marcos

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Understanding how biomarker distributions evolve over time is a central challenge in digital health and chronic disease monitoring. In diabetes, changes in the distribution of glucose measurements can reveal patterns of disease progression and treatment response that conventional summary measures miss. Motivated by a 26-week clinical trial comparing the closed-loop insulin delivery system t:slim X2 with standard therapy in children with type 1 diabetes, we propose a probabilistic framework to model the continuous-time evolution of time-indexed distributions using continuous glucose monitoring data (CGM) collected every five minutes. We represent the glucose distribution as a Gaussian mixture, with time-varying mixture weights governed by a neural ODE. We estimate the model parameter using a distribution-matching criterion based on the maximum mean discrepancy. The resulting framework is interpretable, computationally efficient, and sensitive to subtle temporal distributional changes. Applied to CGM trial data, the method detects treatment-related improvements in glucose dynamics that are difficult to capture with traditional analytical approaches.


Confusions over Time: An Interpretable Bayesian Model to Characterize Trends in Decision Making

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose Confusions over Time (CoT), a novel generative framework which facilitates a multi-granular analysis of the decision making process. The CoT not only models the confusions or error properties of individual decision makers and their evolution over time, but also allows us to obtain diagnostic insights into the collective decision making process in an interpretable manner.


Deep Alternative Neural Network: Exploring Contexts as Early as Possible for Action Recognition

Neural Information Processing Systems

Contexts are crucial for action recognition in video. Current methods often mine contexts after extracting hierarchical local features and focus on their high-order encodings. This paper instead explores contexts as early as possible and leverages their evolutions for action recognition. In particular, we introduce a novel architecture called deep alternative neural network (DANN) stacking alternative layers. Each alternative layer consists of a volumetric convolutional layer followed by a recurrent layer.


I'm a Harvard physicist. I believed in evolution my whole life… until I found God and uncovered something science still can't explain

Daily Mail - Science & tech

Horrifying next twist in the Alexander brothers case: MAUREEN CALLAHAN exposes an unthinkable perversion that's been hiding in plain sight Hollywood icon who starred in Psycho after Hitchcock dubbed her'my new Grace Kelly' looks incredible at 95 Alexander brothers' alleged HIGH SCHOOL gang rape video: Classmates speak out on sick'taking turns' footage... as creepy unseen photos are exposed Model Cindy Crawford, 60, mocked for her'out of touch' morning routine: 'Nothing about this is normal' Kentucky mother and daughter turn down $26.5MILLION to sell their farms to secretive tech giant that wants to build data center there Tucker Carlson erupts at Trump adviser as she hurls'SLANDER' claim linking him to synagogue shooting NFL superstar Xavier Worthy spills all on Travis Kelce, the Chiefs' struggles... and having Taylor Swift as his No 1 fan Heartbreaking video shows very elderly DoorDash driver shuffle down customer's driveway with coffee order because he is too poor to retire Amber Valletta, 52, was a '90s Vogue model who made movies with Sandra Bullock and Kate Hudson, see her now Nancy Mace throws herself into Iran warzone as she goes rogue on Middle East rescue mission: 'I AM that person' I believed in evolution my whole life until I found God and uncovered something science still can't explain A Harvard physicist who once fully embraced evolution says finding God turned his understanding of life's origins upside down. Dr Michael Guillen told the Daily Mail that for decades, he saw science as the highest authority, until the 1980s, when reading the Bible for the first time changed everything. Guillen now argues that modern science increasingly points away from Darwin's theory of evolution and closer to the Christian view of human origins. 'When you look at the continuum that evolutionary biologists say we are part of, in fact, we are not part of a continuum,' he said. 'All these animals are related to one another.




From Collapse to Improvement: Statistical Perspectives on the Evolutionary Dynamics of Iterative Training on Contaminated Sources

Bakshi, Soham, Chakraborty, Sunrit

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The problem of model collapse has presented new challenges in iterative training of generative models, where such training with synthetic data leads to an overall degradation of performance. This paper looks at the problem from a statistical viewpoint, illustrating that one can actually hope for improvement when models are trained on data contaminated with synthetic samples, as long as there is some amount of fresh information from the true target distribution. In particular, we consider iterative training on samples sourced from a mixture of the true target and synthetic distributions. We analyze the entire iterative evolution in a next-token prediction language model, capturing how the interplay between the mixture weights and the sample size controls the overall long-term performance. With non-trivial mixture weight of the true distribution, even if it decays over time, simply training the model in a contamination-agnostic manner with appropriate sample sizes can avoid collapse and even recover the true target distribution under certain conditions. Simulation studies support our findings and also show that such behavior is more general for other classes of models.