Conformal prediction is a statistical framework that generates prediction sets containing ground-truth labels with a desired coverage guarantee. The predicted probabilities produced by machine learning models are generally miscalibrated, leading to large prediction sets in conformal prediction. In this paper, we empirically and theoretically show that disregarding the probabilities' value will mitigate the undesirable effect of miscalibrated probability values. Then, we propose a novel algorithm named $\textit{Sorted Adaptive prediction sets}$ (SAPS), which discards all the probability values except for the maximum softmax probability. The key idea behind SAPS is to minimize the dependence of the non-conformity score on the probability values while retaining the uncertainty information. In this manner, SAPS can produce sets of small size and communicate instance-wise uncertainty. Theoretically, we provide a finite-sample coverage guarantee of SAPS and show that the expected value of set size from SAPS is always smaller than APS. Extensive experiments validate that SAPS not only lessens the prediction sets but also broadly enhances the conditional coverage rate and adaptation of prediction sets.

Cross-validation (CV) is often used to select the regularization parameter in high dimensional problems. However, when applied to the sparse modeling method Lasso, CV leads to models that are unstable in high-dimensions, and consequently not suited for reliable interpretation. In this paper, we propose a model-free criterion ESCV based on a new estimation stability (ES) metric and CV. Our proposed ESCV finds a locally ES-optimal model smaller than the CV choice so that the it fits the data and also enjoys estimation stability property. We demonstrate that ESCV is an effective alternative to CV at a similar easily parallelizable computational cost. In particular, we compare the two approaches with respect to several performance measures when applied to the Lasso on both simulated and real data sets. For dependent predictors common in practice, our main finding is that, ESCV cuts down false positive rates often by a large margin, while sacrificing little of true positive rates. ESCV usually outperforms CV in terms of parameter estimation while giving similar performance as CV in terms of prediction. For the two real data sets from neuroscience and cell biology, the models found by ESCV are less than half of the model sizes by CV. Judged based on subject knowledge, they are more plausible than those by CV as well. We also discuss some regularization parameter alignment issues that come up in both approaches.